Welcome in for another Sunday mailbag! I've got some broad cross-league topics to hit before I deep-dive into Memphis' changes for 2022. Without further ado, let's dig in.
We'll start with another tier-based power ranking for the league, courtesy of Royce over on Twitter. As always, give his S.A. Soccer Roundtable show a listen for all the latest on the franchise formerly known as the Scorpions.
Just to reiterate, I’ve broken the teams here down into tiers. There’s a certain amount of fluidity for sure. For instance, Dane Kelly-fuelled Pittsburgh and new-look Memphis could easily bump up; Oakland is a clear step down from El Paso to me. With that said, I feel good about the broader groupings. We’ll start from the top, where I feel like there’s a bit of a gap arising. Out east, Tampa and Louisville have done a lot to get better since I last published a ranking. The Rowdies re-signed a huge chunk of their whole core, supplementing with the crucial addition of C.J. Cochran in goal. A 94th percentile performer by my value model, Cochran actually rates more highly by the numbers than Evan Louro. Meanwhile, Louisville solidified their left with Jorge Gonzalez, Amadou Dia, and the electric Enoch Mushagalusa. Elsewhere, the west’s top trio feels even more distinct. Phoenix is Phoenix, and I’m slightly worried about the Hurst/Epps dynamic replacing Asante, but they’re a constant threat. I’ve lauded Colorado Springs (nigh flawless?) in detail, and Sacramento is one striker away from being my full title favorite; I adore their midfield. Tier two is more selective for me. Birmingham is rock-solid, but I want another finisher there. Bob Lilley and the ’Hounds have that player in Dane Kelly, but they need more depth. San Antonio is equally solid at the starting level but is also thin; that said, their distinctive counterattack and press set them apart.
I’ve cooled on Miami as we move further down. Segbers and Murphy are still huge gets, and I think that Florian Valot is going to be a delightful addition on the wing, but the roster is so half-baked right now. The west is a muddle in this same tier. Sides like New Mexico and San Diego are filled-out, but I need both to prove it in terms of systematic vision and finishing, respectively.
I have no idea what to make of the middle in the east. Memphis feels the closest to a complete team right now; I'll get into that momentarily. Charleston has added splendidly (and here's my weekly Brandon Mays plug on Andrew Booth), and I'm anticipating more signings for Indy, but neither is wowing me completely. Oakland leaves me feeling sour on the other coast. They're going to be solid defensively, but who's scoring the goals and creating in the middle? Fall, Hernandez, Amarikwa, and Bokila were the key guys in these areas, and we've really only seen Dariusz Formella (who's good!) come in to fill the gap.
The rest of the league is fairly boilerplate. Rio Grande Valley and Las Vegas are embarrassing themselves. If I had to pinpoint a high-upside unit from the remnant, I'm looking to Maxi Rodriguez and Detroit. I would also never bet against an MLS side jumping up out of nowhere; on that note, let's bid adieu to the Jorge Hernandez era in Los Angeles. He's going to dominate in Ukraine.
Another question from Royce asked me to stab at the best attacks and defenses in the new year. To set a baseline, I looked at the best performers from 2021 in terms of goal and shot-on-target statistics. El Paso was amongst the leaders in both areas last year, but I see them falling off a bit with a few exits (Ross, Jerome) and a managerial change. Meanwhile, I think the Wharton and Vitiello goodbyes for Pittsburgh see them out of the best defense conversation for now.
Let's turn to defense in full. I won't beat around the bush: I'll eat my hat if Tampa doesn't pace the league yet again. I hit on the Louro-to-Cochran handoff earlier, but I also think that the Timmy Mehl signing is an excellent way to address Forrest Lasso's goodbye. With the rest of the team's key contributors back, the Rowdies will be impenetrable again. Pending a Jonathan Dean return, I also like Birmingham. Even without the right back's stunning recovery pace, this team combines Matt Van Oekel's brilliance with the veteran stability of Phanuel Kavita, Ryan James, Mikey Lopez, and Alex Crognale in the back, and you can't say enough about Anderson Asiedu and Thomas Vancaeyezeele as destroyers in the midfield. One final shout for Orange County, who gave up just six goals in their final twelve games last year. I need to see Orozco return at center back and maybe Dillon Powers or another holder come into the midfield, but Rakovsky and company will be tough to break down.
In terms of attacking, Tampa is up there for me again. They were in the top quintile of the USL for goal and shot production last year, and you love the pickups of Jake Areman as a deep creator and young star Jake LaCava as something of a #10. Phoenix is a perennial threat in this category, but I think they could be more of a grind-it-out side with the energetic press of Marcus Epps replacing Solomon Asante's electricity. Louisville is another good shout, but the Dia-for-Gomez swap at left back slows them down a shade. Still, new winger Mushagalusa is going to score for fun. My pick here, however, is Colorado Springs. Michee Ngalina is back for good, Hadji Barry is signed for all eternity, and the new additions from Cam Lindley to Kharlton Belmar to Macauley King give this team creativity and spark at every level. They were a 95th percentile attack last year, and they've only strengthened.
I also got a good prompt on underrated and underreported signings from my USL Show co-host Kaylor, and I've laid out a few picks in the table below.
I'll start with two central defenders: Carter Manley in San Antonio and Kyle Adams in San Diego. Last year with RGV, Manley slotted in as a center back and right back across 2,500 minutes at an 80th percentile level of performance. His combination of defensive skill and ball carriage are perfect in the Marcina back three. Adams registered an equivalent minute total and an even-better GAR sum amidst an otherwise-shambolic Real Monarchs team. His tireless interventions and Yaro-approximating passing should be essential for Landon Donovan's Loyal. Both have all-league upside.
Two forwards also rank highly for me, but in entirely different contexts. Let's start obscure with Luther Archimede in Sacramento. My caveat here is that he may not start; he didn't even get seven full games in New York. That said, his raging pace combines with top-quarter shot conversion and xG per shot to represent huge potential. Ahead of a dynamic and progressive midfield, Archimede's electric style and smart moving could pay dividends. Moving on, I also want to show love to the aforementioned Marcus Epps in Phoenix. On the USL Show live stream last week, I was surprised to see hate for the Rising offseason in the comment section (pop by our next stream, by the way!). Yeah, Asante is probably out, but Epps is as good a replacement as you could dream of. Last year, he performed in the 98th percentile while generating top-quarter xAssists (xA) and nearly topping the league in passing progressivity. He's an amazing dribbler to boot, and I think he's going to coast to double-digit goals in the Valley.
Finally, I want to give some love to two moves from the Atlantic seaboard. Matt Sheldon, who played everywhere from right back to striker in Tulsa with top ten-percent value numbers and above-water xG, xA, and defensive actions, is going to tear things apart in Charleston. He and A.J. Paterson are immediately one of the elite fullback duos in the USL. Sheldon was in the mix for my team of the season last year, and I expect a similar level of production in South Carolina. One final shout: Peter-Lee Vassell in Hartford. The Jamaican international got very little run in Indy, but he shone in his minutes on the pitch. He's an aggressive and confident winger, and his game will be fully actualized alongside Danny Barrera in a way that could bring the best out of both players.
In response to Kaylor, USL Twitter's most vociferous San Antonian Harry asked for a review of top remaining free agents at every spot. Here's a table with some of my picks, which were initially derived from my Goals Above Replacement calculations before some good ol' fashioned subjective changes:
Some things to note at each spot:
Evan Louro is a bit of a question mark in goal thanks to his end-of-year injury, but you can't exclude the 'keeper of the year. There's so much talent to be had here, and I'd expect some dominos to fall sooner rather than later. Maybe a Cardone reunion in San Antonio is on the cards? Or could late-season loanee Jordan Farr make a move permanent?
The crop of players at central defender is equally deep. I could rave about all of these guys, but I do want to shout out Gustavo Rissi and Fabien Garcia out of Austin in particular. Could Ates Diouf and Nick Hinds' signings this week breaks the dam for former Bold players moving on?
Fullback is the best group here for me. Jonathan Dean is one of the best players in the USL, but the two-way spark of Jordan Dover, Logan Gdula, and everyone else here could really push a side over the top.
Solomon Asante is the big attacking midfield name, but I think he's off to another nation entirely if he doesn't circle back to Phoenix. Plenty of talent here, though, ranging from veteran wingers like ex-Louisville man Antoine Hoppenot to LIPAFC rival Gordon Wild, a #10 and statistical darling (95th percentile xG, 89th xA, 98th key pass rate).
Wrapping up with forwards, I think we're relatively thin again. Nonetheless, Cal Jennings has the best poaching instinct of basically anyone at the USL level, Corey Hertzog is a cerebral supporting striker with a good shot on him, and I love the roving contributions of guys like J.J. Williams.
Note: it was helpfully pointed out that Miami retained Sparrow, Craig, and Francois on multi-year deals. Disregard their supposed availability.
Now let's talk Memphis, courtesy of Brandon, your go-to source for any and all League One analysis. Last year, this team was the epitome of a counterattacking unit. Powered by Kyle Murphy's pristine finishing, Mark Segbers' right-sided overlaps, and the dynamic midfield corps of Kissiedou, Fortune, Oduro, and Paul, this team turned offseason red flags into a solid playoff team that clicked down the stretch. They came sixth in the Eastern Conference, and that counter-centric style, so dependent on Murphian hold-up, generated 90th percentile shot-on-target volume amidst second-to-worst rates of possession. This team took their chances well and played with a defined style, and defenders like Niall Logue, Skylar Thomas also deserve credit for keeping that marauding 4-2-3-1 system afloat.
As seen in the lineup graphic above, however, big changes are afoot in Tennessee. I still think that we'll see a re-run of the baseline 4-2-3-1 shape given some of the talent that Ben Pirmann has inked. However, the similarities end there. I've clipped a play or two of all the new additions below, and what stands out is an ability for all of these players to operate patiently in the final third. Aaron Molloy, a central man, and Devin Boyce, an attacking midfielder, were both top-twenty players in the whole of League One last year and ranked in the top ten percent for xA. Seagrist and Buckmaster, fullbacks moving (or returning!) from Indy, offer stable passing in contrast to the manic Segbers. Meanwhile, ex-Atlanta winger Phillip Goodrum, put up top-quarter xG and shot stats as a wide forward; his movement can loosen set defenses.
To make the subtext abundantly clear, I think that Memphis is going to be much more of a possession-centric side in 2021. Returners like Paul, Kissiedou, and underrated passer Niall Logue readily keep the ball, and the newbies are wonderfully technical. What does that mean in practice? 901's buildup patterns were very direct and inside-out in 2021. You'd often see long goal kicks, and, when Memphis did play patiently, they'd work into guys like Kissiedou in the middle to open up through balls to overlapping wide men. 2022 will see them approach the game in a more narrow state, maybe akin to Mark Lowry-vintage El Paso.
A quick note: I've linked to three clips of Kissiedou in the preceding paragraph, and that's because he's the most underrated midfielder in this whole damn league. As seen in his numbers, #30 was one of the best statistical performers in the whole of the USL. He even counterpressed actively for an attacker on top of that possessive excellence! What really impresses me with Kissiedou is his patience. He doesn't consistently ping through balls all over the pitch, but his riskier passes are laden with intention. This is a player with a sense for a moment. His assist stats may seem disappointing in that context, but Kissiedou has to be among the league leaders for hockey assists, that "pass before the pass." He's a delight, and his partnership with Molloy is going to be highly symbiotic.
Defensively, the big thing will be fullback positioning. I've hit you over the head with talk of right-back aggression, but the same philosophy applied to Evans, Reynolds, and especially Alan Winn on the left. Seagrist and Buckmaster can certainly get up the pitch and provide spark, but their efficacy within a possessive system comes in deeper positions so as to space for creative midfield peers. An occasional overlap becomes all the more deadly in that context; it's a question of picking moments rather than relying on a fullback as a proxy winger.
Right now, Memphis sits fourteenth in my Goals Above Replacement standings, dead center in the USL and sixth again in the Eastern Conference. By chance, I also have them 14th in my power ranking earlier in this piece. If Memphis can get a solid striker that brings teammates into the game and creates for himself - Corey Hertzog from above, anyone? - then they have room to solidify themselves as a playoff lock. Either way, Memphis has more to come, and I'm thrilled to see how they shake out in 2022.
Finally, some quick-hitters:
Nic hit me up with a good little prompt asking about my favorite cross-conference matchups in 2022. To start, I'm fascinated to see the Neco Brett revenge game with Birmingham at New Mexico. It's a rich tactical matchup, pitting a mysterious Legion attack against what could either be a back three or four. Detroit at Monterey pops as a fun expansion tilt, and I'm also chuffed beyond belief that Phoenix is playing Tampa, Louisville, and Miami. One final shout: Sacramento at Pittsburgh in a battle of the league's two fiercest midfields.
My friends from Tulsa's 918 Brigade had a question on the Open Cup's viability and the possibility of an intra-league replacement tournament. To be honest, I'm putting the blinders on and refusing to accept the possibility of a cancellation. The round of the Open that pits your semi-professional Mississippi Brilla and Villages types against established USL teams is literally the highlight of my sporting calendar. If we lose that, it's a complete shame. A synergistic Jake Edwards Memorial Cup™ would be fun, but it's not quite the same.
Thanks again as always to all the readers and inquirers. I'll be back this week to address an interesting but lengthier prompt on the differences between the conferences and my preferred systematic tweaks to meet them.