Welcome in to another weekend mailbag! It's the first one of the new year, so I wanted to take on as many questions as possible. Thanks for reading and inquiring as always, and, without further ado, let's dig in.
To start off, I'll launch some hot takes courtesy of a prompt from Joel Delgado. He asked me to analyze where Miami falls in the Eastern Conference, so I decided to go further and rank every team in the USL into a competitive tier. Please note that teams are alphabetized within their respective group. Also, take a peek at my offseason hubs for mostly up-to-date squads and stats.
There are a few takes I want to discuss and defend, but we'll start with Miami. They're still early in their roster build, and I'm awaiting news on Paco Craig, Speedy Williams, and Christiano Francois with bated breath. That said, the current core of returners like Bolu Akinyode and incomers like Kyle Murphy and Mark Segbers is littered with all-league talent. Importantly, all the signings to date come off as highly strategic and simpatico with new manager Anthony Pulis' philosophy.
A few other notes:
Orange County is one Eric Calvillo away from leaping back into unabashed title contention. Their squad lacks the fullness and depth of a team like the Switchbacks, who seem incredible on paper.
Tampa is on the fringe for me; it still feels gross to have them in Tier 2. Give me news on Guenzatti, Lasso, Hilton, and company, and I'll rapidly reassess.
In that middle chunk, I'm keeping my eyes on Indy, Charleston, and New Mexico. All three have made great signings amidst regime changes, and I could see any of them leaping up a tier or two.
I doubted Memphis and RGV heavily in their late-developing offseasons last year, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and exclude them from the basement.
Maxwell Johnson teed me up to heap praise on Indy Eleven forward Manuel Arteaga, something that I should've done more often last season. I had noted #29's activity in the press and his importance to Indy's transition play, but you can heck out the clip below for his full statistical profile and style-revealing highlights.
I essentially took fifteen minutes of gameplay from a random match against Atlanta to show what Arteaga does in a typical stretch of play. What you see is a player that's willing to drop deep into the midfield and pick up possession. Arteaga loves a good give-and-go, and he's confident in his ability to beat a man to get his shot off. #29 is also solid in the air and above-average at holding up the ball. His finishing, preferably right-footed, let him knock home double-digit goals, but I don't think he's a world-beater in this area. For me, Arteaga operates best with a partner that's more of a traditional #9, always probing the back shoulder of a centerback; this would open space for the Venezuelan and give him a creative outlet. Still, Arteaga is a top-end USL forward no matter how he's deployed.
Allan May came with a great question on the potential impact Evan Conway can have as he makes the move from Omaha to San Diego. Let's start with the highlights.
With those in mind, check out the StatsBomb-style radar that the amazing Brandon Mays provided for Conway's performance this year. Based on the high amount of touches and shots compared to limited passing volume, you may get the sense that the twenty-four-year-old is something of a poacher. I wouldn't dismiss that idea in full, but Conway gives you a lot more.
Returning to the clips with this in mind, there are a few things to note. Without a doubt, there's pure strikerly instinct in droves here. Conway is an electric mover and finisher. Still, the highlights where he picks up possession deep or wide reveal that there's more to him than meets the eye. Paired with the slaloming dribbling of Tumi Moshobane and the drive of Nick Moon from out wide, I'm confident that Conway can lead the line for a Championship side.
On that note, I also wanted to address a question from one of my favorite people, Phil Grooms, on some other big League One-to-Championship moves. I'll point to the rumored addition of Jiro Toyama to the Monterey Bay back line as one nice signing. He's strong getting up and down the left flank and really impressed in Madison, and I think he's a natural fit alongside ex-Hartford man Walmer Martinez on the wing for MBFC.
My other shout is Jay Tee Kamara, who's returning to Louisville after a yearlong loan to North Carolina. I've linked to a profile on Kamara from Brandon Mays (sensing a theme here?), and I'm increasingly thinking his inside-out attacking dynamism is going to get a look-in for City. They're losing Antoine Hoppenot and Jorge Gonzalez in the midfield, and Kamara can make the leap to eat a lot of those minutes.
A set of Mountain-focused questions came in from my man Royce of the excellent S.A. Soccer Roundtable show, so we'll take those one at a time.
To start, there was an inquiry into the striker rotation for the Switchbacks this season. You can see my predicted current lineup for Colorado Springs here as a baseline. I've also included two average position maps from this season; one comes from the team's second-to-last match, and the other preceded Michee Ngalina's loan. The side usually preferred a front three with fluid movement (hence the bunched positioning) or a front four with two aggressive wingers, one out-and-out striker, and Hadji Barry sitting deeper. Playing lower, the Golden Boot winner often found his touches in the same areas as midfield players like Andre Lewis.
Where does that leave us? Based on the personnel on this roster, I think the front three will get the most run-out alongside sparing use of the front four. Barry will retain his minutes as a do-everything forward, and Ngalina automatically slots into one of the wing positions. That leaves an on-and-off striker slot and one more winger role. For my money, Thomas Amang will eat those striker minutes in the four-man setup, spelled by rotation with Elvis Amoh. The last wing role thus goes to Kharlton Belmar, but you'll also see Amoh in the mix there as well. In short, Barry and Ngalina are nailed, and everyone else will share the minutes load relatively evenly.
Royce's next question relates to San Antonio's options if they want to add at fullback. I ran a very simple similarity model mainly focused on defensive actions and passing progressivity, and then I culled the results into the list of targets below. I focused on players in prime age ranges and only included fullbacks and wingbacks who aren't yet signed for 2022. Do note that Macauley King joined Colorado Springs between the creation of the graphic and the writing of this piece.
In any event, there are some interesting names here. Sean McFarlane, who played on the right for Miami, generated the closest match to the San Antonio wingback corps, so he's one to watch. I'll add some subjectivity and shout out Jordan Dover and Zach Ellis-Hayden, two more right-siders who embody the physicality that the SAFC role requires. One name to shout out on the left is Jake Areman. Like current left back PC, Areman can comfortably slide into the central midfield and is a prodigious passer. Ultimately, I don't know if San Antonio adds a starting-caliber wingback to their set, but options abound if they're in the market.
Charleston, who I was bullish on in my tiers, was the subject of Tanner Clay's inquiry. He specifically wanted to know how I saw them lining up under new manager Conor Casey. Below, I've included two different formational setups that could serve as a template for the first-time manager.
Let's start with the positively Anhaeuser-ian 4-4-2 formation at left. Charleston has worked out of this system for a few years now, and it's marked by somewhat deep-seated central midfielders, wingers with a penchant for tucking inside (think Zeiko Lewis), and fullback-driven buildup via AJ Paterson and Logan Gdula. You see Matt Sheldon picking up Gdula's spot and guys like DZ Harmon stepping into fully-realized minutes, but I expect a stylistic change even if there's a fit on paper.
One possibility I'm interested in is a back three, and I've thrown out a possible 5-4-1 alignment to illustrate it. This lineup allows three above-average central defenders to get time, liberating Paterson and Sheldon to really push high. It also activates new signee Andrew Booth to adopt more of a creative, interchange-enabled inside winger role, and it better fits Aidan Apodaca's second-striker skillset. My opinions here will change as the Battery continue to add, but I'm liking a three-at-the-back system for the time being.
I got a question from David MacKenzie on the USL Academy Cup, with a specific eye towards tactical similarities between youth and senior teams and standout players. I won’t lie in that I only caught bits and pieces of the tourney; the title game was the only match where I really dug in. That said, I definitely caught some trends towards senior-youth homogeneity. Indy, for instance, ran out in a 4-4-2 in an echo of Mark Lowry's philosophy. New Mexico was noticeably aggressive in the press, just like their senior side. Queensboro focused on possession and tried to create with the ball; this echoes the conversations I've had about the team's identity with staff members like Diego Gomez, who coached the Academy Cup side and will be a senior assistant upon launch.
Two players really stuck out to me and caught headlines, and I want to apologize in advance in that these are truly obvious answers. Still, Alann Torres from Indy and Cristian Nava from New Mexico were stars here. Both saw limited minutes in the USL Championship in 2021, and both looked like attacking studs in the tournament. I wrote up Torres' domineering central midfield title-game performance, and I mentioned his upside as a potential contributor in Indy's eleven this week. Meanwhile, Nava is another bright attacking midfielder, and I also mentioned the possibility of professional time for him when I recently broke New Mexico down.
Let's wrap up now with some quick hitters on subjects where I'm less knowledgeable and loquacious:
Joel Lorah asked about possible future cities for USL expansion with a specific reference to the viability of Philadelphia. I'll not claim any great familiarity with Philly, but I'm generally weary of entering MLS markets even if the existing team is trapped in the 'burbs. One open city I'm bullish on: New Orleans. Give me those beignet-fueled road trips.
Inquiring about their fellow Oklahomans, Tulsa's 918 Battalion wondered about the rise and fall of the OKC Energy. What's going on there is a shame, but I'm gullible, and I trust that they'll be back in 2023. Their ownership group is, uh, less than savory, but at least they're not Rayo OKC? Still, to cancel this year without a hint of forewarning and unceremoniously dump everyone through 2022 is cold.
Finally, El Mans from Twitter asked about post-shot xG modeling in the USL. To my knowledge it doesn't exist, certainly not in any sort of public-facing form. Still, there are some good xG resources out there! FiveThirtyEight puts out match-by-match numbers, and American Soccer Analysis has fuller team and player numbers. I'll also shill for myself here; I put out player xG estimates for the Championship and League One, which can be found in my Offseason Hub.
That's all, folks. Thanks again for the questions, and be on the lookout for more analysis as the offseason wears on.