Heading into 2022, last season's Mountain Division has led the way in driving USL offseason storylines thus far. Colorado Springs has added more top-end quality than any team in the league, Rio Grande Valley has been notable for their inactivity, San Antonio has retained a Gallegos- and PC-centric core while losing Marcus Epps, and El Paso has begun their post-Mark Lowry adjustment. Amidst this flurry, New Mexico United has flown under the radar. I projected this team as the Mountain winner heading into 2021, but a disappointing year saw them miss the playoffs entirely. Shifts were inevitable, and this club has been judicious in executing them.
The first big change came at the managerial spot with Troy Lesense exiting after three seasons. Assistant Zach Prince will take the reins, and I'm expecting a bigger change in behind-the-scenes tone rather than a tactical revolution. What does that mean in practice? Traditionally, New Mexico has employed a three-at-the-back defensive system marked by strong pressure an highly-placed fullbacks. They’ve either re-signed or added four starting-caliber centerbacks alongside three wide men, so I'd expect that base shape to persist.
Digging into personnel, we've seen Justin Schmidt and Juan Guzman bid adieu, but this team's moves rival Colorado Springs as the best batch of signings in the league. Alexis Souahy, formerly of Louisville, and Carl Sainte, a Haitian international, supplement an already-decent core at the respective central defensive and midfield slots, but I'm more excited by the changes that have come in the attack. New Mexico's weakest feature last season was their forward line, and the additions there will fundamentally change this side in 2022.
Neco Brett is an absolute difference-maker at the striker spot. His game combines rapid pace and smart movement with top-of-the-line finishing. In terms of that pure scoring ability, the Jamaican international posted conversion rates of 22% and 29% respectively in 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, the Sandoval/Ilic/Brown cohort combined for a rate around 13% last year, which cumulatively put them below the league average for forwards.
Still, the stylistic fit is more important here. At their attacking best, New Mexico creates turnovers and drives chances in transition. Last year's strike corps was designed to get on the end of long goal kicks and hold up play, lacking the speed and dynamism to put opponents to the sword. The Brett signing signals a renewed intention to create havoc and play with spee; his movement and guile couldn't be a better match for such a system. Tabort Etaka Preston, another new signing, is similarly dynamic and provides a real capability for self-driven shot creation (3.1 shots per 90, 92nd percentile for AMs) in a fluid forward role.
In my estimation, the lead striker for New Mexico will be flanked by two narrow wingers, and I expect returnees Amando Moreno and Chris Wehan to fill those voids. Moreno combines relentless dribbling and tricky running with a great shot, ranking in the top quarter of the league for fouls drawn and expected goals. Wehan, meanwhile, ranked in the 98th percentile for expected assists after re-joined United midway through the campaign. You can see their highlights above. Moreno has a wide forward aspect to his game, and the combination of his and Brett's movement will leave defenders spinning. Wehan will sit in behind, linking play and threading passes to the pair. As a trio, they give you creation and a connection to the midfield, a hint of crossing width, and poaching instinct in the box; I love them in combination.
The biggest positional knock-on effect from the discussed so far may be a cementing of Sergio Rivas in a deeper central midfield role. He split time between that spot and a Wehan-esque inside winger assignment in 2021, but I see his best position as a marauding box-to-box role. He played there in Reno in 2020, generating 86th percentile forward passing rates and roughly average defensive numbers in a midfield pair. Based on that history and the highlights above, I can absolutely see Rivas sitting in the middle to connect the defensive line with Wehan et al.
With midfield stalwart Juan Guzman leaving this offseason, there’s one more opening in the center of the park, and I see Salt Lake veteran Justin Portillo holding it down. Guzman, with his 98th percentile pass volume and top-quarter defensive actions, is a traditional ball-recycler and holding player. Portillo, on the other hand, sacrifices some of that defensive mastery for crisp forward passing and occasional late runs into the box. The Guzman/Portillo swap will require Rivas to do more on the defensive side, but his time in the man-marking Reno system tells me that he's up to the task.
Of course, one of those two could easily be displaced by another new addition, Will Seymore. The twenty-nine-year-old is a nice halfway point between Portillo and Rivas. He's a highly capable passer with solid expected assist and defensive action numbers, and he brings Europa League pedigree alongside USL history. I fancy Rivas over Seymore in the context of a high-tempo, transition-heavy attack, but I think that those two and Portillo form an excellent and flexible three-man rotation. You could even see that midfield three operating simultaneously with Brett and another forward a line ahead; the possibilities abound.
Flanked by some combination of Bruce, Swartz, and Suggs (all in the 60th percentile or better for crossing volume and expected assists), the midfield duo projects to be well-balanced and progressive. If the need for a holding presence does arise, I like the idea of nineteen-year-old Carl Sainte, described by the new gaffer as someone with a "physical profile" that can "cover a lot of ground," filling that gap. I'd also be remiss to ignore the possible contributions of young Cristian Nava in the more progressive midfield slot or as a winger; he tore up the USL Academy Cup this year after a few 2021 cameos.
In some ways, this focus on midfield progression into dynamic forwards vaguely reminds me of Orange County’s approach to buildup. The champs were certainly a more defensive side than New Mexico will be, and they sat in a back four, but their best moves were driven by the ball carriage of players like Eric Calvillo and Brian Iloski through the middle. In Rivas, Wehan, and others, you can see United giving themselves a similar set of options. Pair that with a great defensive core stemming from Alex Tambakis into the back three, and there’s real potential here.
All in all, I think that New Mexico has built their 2022 roster with a clear vision in mind, one driven by exciting attacking tenets. This team looks to have added an extra degree of dynamism, and my way-too-early projections have them improving from a middling 17th in total value-added to a playoff-contending 12th, leapfrogging sides like El Paso and San Diego in the process. Time will tell, and I may be overly optimistic yet again, but I think that New Mexico United is a team to watch in 2022.
Comments