Trade basics and player profiles
Memphis 901 FC receives: Rodrigo Da Costa (AM, 29 years old)
In many ways, Rodrigo Da Costa defines soccer in Tulsa. Nearing 130 appearances for the Roughnecks and rebranded, art-deco-ified FC Tulsa, the Brazilian sported the captain's armband more than a dozen times and racked up 35 goals and 25 assists since his debut in 2019.
What defines the midfielder's game? His vision in attack and creative abilities are a calling card. Da Costa is adept at dropping towards the halfway line, picking up possession, and driving into the opposing half with a head of steam. He's similarly impactful in settled scenarios in the final third, having registered 30 key passes in 2023; not one else on the roster has more than 12.
#10 isn't a pure striker, and to use him as a proper No. 9 - a point we'll dig into later - is a mistake. Still, Da Costa's secondary scoring chops and precise takes from distance are the kind of quality that can open up a team's offense and forge space for teammates.
If there is a question with Da Costa's game, it comes defensively. He has shown an ability to track back and sit in a deeper-block defensive system, and he rates in the 75th percentile for defensive actions amongst attacking midfielders in 2023. Still, Da Costa is at his best hedging away from deep positions to find space on the break. A team that properly integrates the Brazilian must strike a balance to maximize his effect.
FC Tulsa receives: Phillip Goodrum (FW, 25 years old)
Phillip Goodrum debuted in the USL with Atlanta United 2 in 2020. His scoring record in Kennesaw was never great, totaling six goals across 34 appearances, but that was in multiple Atlanta teams that could hardly muster any offense. All the while, Goodrum showed a nascent poacher's instinct in front of net.
The breakout came last season when the striker moved to Memphis. Put into a high-pressing, fluid Ben Pirmann team, Goodrum continued to improve his touch in the box, excelled in counterattacking scenarios, and shone with his physicality and mean-streak going both ways. As a result, the Tennessee native finished second in the league with 21 goals in 2022.
With Pirmann leaving for Charleston this offseason and Goodrum in hot demand after a sizzling season, transfer offers naturally rolled in. Memphis flatly refused them all, thus sparking the biggest controversy of the USL winter when, days before kickoff, Goodrum declared:
I had opportunities to go into MLS and go into Europe this offseason, and the club held me back from that. So I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t devastated to be back here.
A transfer felt inevitable from that point on. Goodrum, unsettled and adjusting to a more pragmatic tactical system under Stephen Glass, hasn't scored in the league yet even though he's upped his expected goals year-over-year. Moving to Tulsa allows him to restart in a very Pirmann-esque side when it comes to style.
Finding FC Tulsa's balance
The fit for Phillip Goodrum in Tulsa is blatantly obvious: he's the nailed-on starter at striker in Blair Gavin's 4-2-3-1. Moses Dyer and, when needed, Dario Suarez have been fine up top, but their return of four total goals on 31 shot attempts isn't exactly prodigious.
Goodrum has the ability to solve that problem. His 21 goals on 96 shots last season nearly doubled the conversion rate of Tulsa's other forwards, and he wasn't even Memphis' designated penalty taker in generating those numbers. The ex-Atlanta man scored like he did on nearly 18 expected goals, indicating sustainability as well.
I particularly like the defensive impact that the trade will have as Tulsa reassigns minutes across the squad. In the press, Goodrum is excellent, and he's never afraid to lean in physically. This season, he has 118 duel attempts in eight starts; neither Dyer nor Suarez has exceeded triple digits in more minutes played.
How do you fill in for Da Costa? A move into a 4-4-2 pairing Goodrum with a partner and eliminating the No. 10 spot is one option. Gavin could also opt to play a 5-4-1, leaning into depth on the wings. The most likely outcome is to push Blaine Ferri up into the central attacking slot and start Eric Bird or a younger prospect in the pivot.
Why would Ferri work? He already has familiarity working in higher positions for Tulsa; the team's best offensive moments have come with the centerman popping up next to Da Costa in a 4-1-4-1. Ferri rates in the upper third of all midfielders for defensive actions and key passes per forward pass, illustrating a sense of off-ball responsibility and a penchant for incision that can replicate the exiting player's impact.
I also think that Marcus Epps will get a bigger chance to shine with Tulsa's talisman out of the picture. Goodrum is fantastic, but he isn't ball dominant like Da Costa, so there's room for a new distribution in possession. The Brazilian averages 40.8 touches per match versus 21.6 for the incoming striker. Epps gets 40.4 touches in a given game as is, but stars like Rodrigo Lopez, Panos Armenakas, and Danny Barrera hedge closer to the 50.0 mark.
Epps is already one of the most accurate crossers in the league, but he's played as a wing back at times this year and is regularly charged with interchanging low with his full back partner. That fact limits the danger Epps can provide in the attacking third, and it often forced him to feed Da Costa from deep positions. If anything sets Marcus Epps apart, it's his ability to go solo and drive an offense without dumping off quick passes. He's liberated to do that more often now. Pair Goodrum and Epps, and you can imagine a recreation of the gorgeous combination play that the striker forged with Jeremy Kelly in Tennessee.
As we've seen, there's plenty more to like across the squad with this transfer. Tulsa has reduced their midfield logjam, acquired a bona fide star No. 9, and increased their defensive work rate for the effort.
Fit questions and necessity for Memphis
On a pound-for-pound basis, Memphis got the better player in this trade, and that matters. Rodrigo Da Costa is one of maybe a dozen USL players who can win a game on his own, and it's something he does consistently. By my Goals Above Replacement model, Da Costa has been worth four full points on the season, fourth-highest in the league. Phillip Goodrum has been worth half that.
Still, trades don't play out on paper, and a player's fit on the pitch is crucial. Yes, the writing was on the wall for the Goodrum era. That said, this trade doesn't make a ton of sense for the Memphis roster or for Stephen Glass' tactical system.
Da Costa is a No. 10 by nature, though he can play as a narrow winger in a pinch. To use him as a striker is to fundamentally misunderstand his skillset. The Brazilian scored nine times last season and has three tallies in 2023, all on a conversion rate that ranks around the 70th percentile for attacking midfielders. That success comes from discretion; Da Costa doesn't fire willy-nilly or at an exceptional volume, providing a secondary threat rather than take the burden of scoring on his own shoulders.
If Da Costa isn't your No. 9, who fills that role for Memphis? The answer isn't entirely clear. 18-year-old Nighte Pickering has done well for himself in about 300 minutes of actions this season, but his successes have come playing as a second striker alongside Goodrum. He has two goals on a 95th percentile conversion rate, but he sits in the 28th percentile for expected goals for shot. In other words, Pickering is on a hot streak but doesn't have the underlying numbers to portend continued scoring success.
Rashawn Dally is a striker by trade, but Glass has used him as a fullback for the most part this season. Luiz Fernando can also take the No. 9 job, but he leads the team in goals in 2023 as an inverted right winger. There aren't easy answers.
What of Da Costa himself? His skillset is adaptable enough to fit any style, and I trust that his combination of incisive passing (80th percentile key passes per forward pass, 93rd percentile expected assists) and driven dribbling (86th percentile fouls drawn) can play in a Memphis team that holds 55% of possession on average. Da Costa can operate in tight spaces in the final third.
That said, what happens to Bruno Lapa in this equation? The other Brazilian No. 10 on this roster was the star signing of the offseason, and he's played in 73% of Memphis' minutes to date. Lapa's underlying numbers (51st percentile expected goals, 64th percentile expected assists) are merely fine, but he has two goals and two assists apiece, matching Da Costa's return in Oklahoma. With a star rival now in his spot, Lapa doesn't have a natural opening in the lineup.
The biggest question comes deeper in the midfield. Memphis' offense is driven by Aaron Molloy and Jeremy Kelly in the pivot of the Glass 4-2-3-1. Molloy was an MVP finalist last season, and I ranked him as the #1, top-of-the-pile player in the entire USL less than a month ago. He dominates the ball for 901 FC, garnering 69.9 touches every single game. Kelly, also brilliant, isn't far behind, getting 55.2 touches even while taking on a roving role.
Da Costa's pivot partners in Tulsa averaged a dozen less touches per game, giving him more chances to work with the ball. Activating him alongside two brilliant players in the form of Molloy and Kelly while also finding a consistent No. 9 in lieu of Goodrum is the task at hand now. Can Stephen Glass do it? It's a tall task, and Pickering must come up big, but there's enough talent to figure things out.
Ultimate impact
My model sees both teams as winners here. Tulsa gains more when you redistribute minutes and reassess rotations, jumping up by nearly two points and 10% in terms of playoff odds. Memphis gains as well, picking up a full point in the table. My model has them as a guaranteed, 100% playoff qualifier, so they don't pick up percentage points, but the effect is clear in the numbers.
I have my doubts about the fit in Memphis, but that doesn't make this trade any less massive. In my estimation, there hasn't been a bigger player-for-player swap in the history of the league. The talents in question here are truly unbelievable.
Marcus Epps for JJ Williams last July is in the neighborhood as far as raw talent, but neither player set the world on fire after the deal, and Williams left Phoenix within a matter of months. You can point to the Lucky Mkosana-for-Antoine Hoppenot swap between Tampa Bay and Louisville in 2019, but Mkosana proved to be a depth forward as compared to Hoppenot's starring role.
Simply put, the Goodrum-for-Da Costa deal is nigh unprecedented. Time will tell who wins the trade, but both clubs deserve credit for making the bold decision to change things up in pursuit of playoff appearances and title upside.