Before we work around to questions, I wanted to hit on two things. First, check out my offseason hub! There are full team-by-team breakdown pages, a tracker for the movement status of basically every Championship player, and full advanced stats for all USL Championship players and teams, in addition to GAR (Goals Above Replacement) data for League One.
Secondly, I thought it would be worthwhile to deep-dive into the Marcus Epps move to Phoenix Rising. Right now, I'm slotting him into the right wing and assuming that Solomon Asante is moving on to greener pastures. Things could change in that regard, and I'll spill more ink if they do. But for now, how do those two compare, and what might the swap signal for Phoenix moving forward? Let's dig in.
To start, take a look at the basic statistical comparison. Both players rank in the top 5% for value-added and around the 90th percentile for expected assists. Asante provides a stronger goal threat (above-average scoring and expected goals despite his split AM/FW role), but Epps makes up for it with more active defensive contributions and a stronger aerial presence. There aren't easily-scraped public numbers on dribbling, but both players rank among the best in the USL in that regard to me.
Of course, the numbers are highly influenced by the role that these two had within their respective systems. As seen in the playoff position maps for both players' matchups against RGV, Epps held down the right side in a solo role as part of a front four, whereas Asante worked hand-in-hand with Darnell King down his flank; Phoenix's #20 was part of a front three or the wide man in a midfield four, depending on how you parse the system.
In this setup, the Phoenix right winger takes on multiple roles. While the left winger plays a more up-and-down style, the right-sider tends to stay up-field as an outlet for transition. They can leak out on breaks and really spark counterattacks. In the offensive zone, the winger tends to hug the touchline as a base position. From here, there are options.
You can see two examples of Asante engaging as a right winger here. The first sees him rove centrally, adopting the mentality of a wide forward or second striker. Clip number two sees him as the widest man on the right side, serving as an outlet when Phoenix switches play to that wing. From there, he cuts in for a trademark goal from distance. The Rising leveraged this aggressive movement and offensive gravity to great effect.
Still, there's more complexity to the right wing position in the Phoenix attacking system. One knock-on effect of that touchline-hugging base position is the interplay with underlapping central runs by way of the right back. As seen in the clips, the right winger is expected to engage with their partner on the flank when, as often occurs, Phoenix dominates possession.
Meanwhile, Marcus Epps gives you a bit of a different skillset. The screencaps from a regular season match illustrate his cross-pitch flexibility; Epps can easily slot in on either flank, and he'll regularly change positions with his opposite-sided winger. This comes from his strong positional sense and perception of space as well as his immense capability at using both feet on the dribble. I'd expect to see less of this swapping next year given the slightly more static Schantz system, but it's something to note.
The defensive contributions that Epps brings to the table are the biggest differentiator here. Asante is actually underrated as a high-work-rate tracker, and I wouldn't call him a bad defensive player by any stretch, but Epps is in another echelon with contributions at the wing spot. He's a bolt of energy out wide, constantly harrying opponents in the press and was always willing to get back and defend when the San Antonio front line compressed into a 5-4-1 in the defensive block.
In attack, Epps is incredibly strong as a self-starter. I've mentioned it a few times, but he's ferocious on the dribble with a head of steam behind him. The numbers somewhat belie his shot threat in these contexts; Epps is more than capable at finding angles to fire from, and I really rate him as a sniper from distance. He's not Asante in this regard, but who is at the USL level? That said, San Antonio's former #20 excels as a passer and creator. He links well with smart movers like Jose Gallegos (or Santi Moar...), and his vision in tight windows in the final third is impressive.
If it isn't clear, I'm a huge fan of Marcus Epps, and I think he'll be a massive success in Phoenix. That said, I see a bit of a transition period until things are clicking on all cylinders. Epps is used to a low-possession, counter-centric style in San Antonio, and trying to embody the Asante role is about as pressureful a role as you could throw a USL player into. The various positional graphics included above also show that Epps tends to play narrow and central relative to Asante, so he'll need to widen out to accommodate right-back underlaps. At the end of they day, though, this is a home run of a move.
Let's get into the questions now, starting with another doozy from Benton (@PurpleSDF), the proprietor of Vamos Morados, who was wondering about the biggest surprises amongst early transaction news. There are plenty of big signings already (see Epps above, and I'm big on the Caldwell/Lindley/Johnson-to-COS moves), but I have three transactions that have piqued my interest as broader signals about roster building.
I'll start close to Benton's heart with Louisville's choice to let Pat McMahon and Antoine Hoppenot walk. McMahon has been a real servant for this club, and Hoppenot was a do-everything wide threat throughout 2021, so this is a clear pivot to the future given that both players are getting up there in afge. Still, McMahon couldn't have been a capable backup like he was last season? This team has one legitimate fullback on the roster right now. Meanwhile, Hoppenot is only thirty-one, and his game is predicated on smart movement more than pace. I'm here for the retool depending on who comes in, but the changes are something to pay attention to. That said, the DelPiccolo return late this week was big.
Moving down I-65, I'm a huge fan of the addition of Mechack Jerome at center back for the Indy Eleven. He's a Mark Lowry lifer, but he just gives you so much as a passer out of the back. This Indy side struggled mightily in possession and was fairly incompetent in short-passing-based buildup play, and Jerome might be the best choice in the USL to support that kind of style. He's joining a fairly crowded CB unit that already features Neveal Hackshaw, Karl Ouimette, and Jared Timmer, but Lowry like to rotate at center back, and those three are respectively capable at left back, right back, and defensive midfield.
With apologies to the Western Conference, I've got one more eastern pick, and that's the exit of Danny Vitiello from Pittsburgh. My goalkeeping goals-above-replacement model loved his profile last season. His baseline shot-stopping stats were all in the top third or so of the league. He also profiles really well as a long-passing goalkeeper in a side that feasted on second-ball opportunities furnished by those very sorts of passes. Maybe he's got an MLS move lined up, or maybe Bob Lilley has his eyes on a Tomas Gomez reunion after that player's Sacramento exit? I'm low on this shift no matter what.
I also got an interesting question from Kaylor (@KaylorHodges; check out Hammering Down and the USL Show!) on the topic of coaching. He implicitly referenced my breakdowns of John Hutchinson and Anthony Pulis, asking if formation usage, winning percentage, goal differences, and things in that vein were revelatory as to the importance of system versus raw talent.
It's a boring answer, but I would give credit to a little bit of both factors. Talent trumps all at the end of the day, and a team that's stacked from top to bottom is naturally going to fare better than a team full of fringe guys. That said, a system can maximize talent in a way that's really important. I'd point to Louisville's promotion of Danny Cruz to the full-blown manager role this year as an argument for the importance of system. Cruz, with some slight tweaking, largely maintained the high-possession, hard-pressing tactics of John Hackworth and James O'Connor before him. This system combined with what's been a good but not jaw-dropping collection of talent to create a side that's constantly making the conference finals.
The numbers are more useful in comparing teams that see a more wholly-realized change in tactics between managers. Ben Pirmann, replacing Tim Mulqueen, made Memphis into a club that possessed less but shut down play by counterattacking with guile and keeping men up the pitch; they shifted the center of gravity without the ball. Fullbacks like Mark Segbers and late-running CMs like Andre Fortune were pinned high, and opponents had a much harder time breaking 901 FC down under the new direction. The results were palpable.
At the same time, Memphis was so successful because of the roster changes they made. I loved Cal Jennings for this team in 2020, but the ferocious movement of Kyle Murphy paired with Laurent Kissiedou's creativity and the marauding of the aforementioned Segbers was every bit as important as the stylistic shifts. Style and talent are incredibly hard to separate.
In the end, I think coaching has to be something of a judgement call. You can tell a lot about a team's tactics from stats and data, and the ultimate place on the table tells you more than anything, but pure talent facilitates any and all success. I watch old matches to scout new managers for a reason: their tendencies matter! Still, style isn't the only thing to care about.
That's all for now. I'll have way more breakdowns and hot takes as the signings keep rolling in (and a video segment on the way!), but thanks for reading this. Please reach out with mailbag topics if you have them!