Sacramento was one of the most disappointing sides in the USL last year, stumbling to second-to-last in the Pacific and never feeling like a true playoff contender. Offense was the big issue for the Republic. Rating as a bottom-quarter attack in terms of goals, Sacramento was even worse according to xG and shots on target. Chances weren’t coming, and finishing those sparing looks was another question entirely.
Why was this the case? The two clips below sum things up nicely in terms of this team's buildup and final-third issues. Systematically, Sacramento tried to advance through the two deep midfielders in their 4-2-3-1 shape; their success at doing so was mixed. Luis Felipe was exceptional in terms of progression, enjoying a 93rd percentile forward pass share. His teammates were less adept on this front, and opponents could thus key in on #96. Below, that leads to both members of the pivot splitting wide to open up space, but the midfield pressure from Los Angeles and lack of advanced passing options doom the move.
The second clip illustrates the issues further up the pitch. For context, Sacramento used more of a 4-4-2 look in this game with the #10 in their usual system playing as an out-and-out striker. The extra bit of movement and verve you might expect from a forward pair was, however, nowhere to be found. In the video, you can see a wing run go wanting as the two strikers stay absolutely frozen. There's no movement, and the Republic have to try and thread an inch-perfect through ball to a tertiary runner to break through. As seen, this team's buildup could often be labored, and the few chances that did come about often died in this sort of manner.
In reaction to these struggles, Sacramento has spent the offseason rebuilding their midfield from the ground up. Luis Felipe remains, but I want to focus on three other personnel moves. Nick Ross, like #96, provides a two-way combination of defensive steel and smart passing. He's more of a tempo-controlling ball recycler (82nd percentile pass volume versus 18th percentile progressivity), and this tidiness combines with great space-opening movement in a manner that's sure to activate Luis Felipe's creation.
In the attacking midfield line, Matt LaGrassa seems like the natural #10, and I love him in that role. For one, he's a very capable passer (89th percentile xA in his last USL campaign) that can pull the strings. He combines that guile with a great work rate (83rd percentile defensive actions in 2019), which is important in front of a pivot without an out-and-out holder.
Planting LaGrassa in the center lets new addition Zeiko Lewis play in a preferred wing role. In Charleston's 4-4-2, Lewis often sat wide with the freedom to tear inwards at will. This opened space for overlapping runs (imagine Maalique Foster or Duke Lacroix there!) or putting Lewis himself into dangerous areas. The ex-Battery man put up 95th percentile xA numbers last year and 90th or higher percentile xG rates in the two years before that; he can create for others or himself at a truly elite level.
That leaves Sacramento with a midfield unit chock full of creators and ball-drivers, but it also gives them a requisite level of defensive solidity. In other words, consider that buildup problem solved without sacrificing any steel. What's more, Lewis' penchant for manufacturing his own looks will help with the final third stasis, but the striker spot is still my big question mark for the Republic in 2022. Last year, Sacramento attackers converted chances at an 11.9% clip (43rd percentile), and their out-and-out strikers were even lower at 11.1% (39th). Cam Iwasa, Jerome Kiesewetter, and moonlighting forwards like Belmar and Formella all have shown themselves to be USL-caliber line-leaders in the past, but none really found the mark in 2021.
With that in mind, I threw together a table highlighting some of the bigger-name, prime-age strikers that Sacramento could add. I've highlighted JJ Williams, Cal Jennings, and Sean Okoli as my three favorites.
Williams, whose game is broken down in the compilation below from his time in Birmingham, is my favorite pick for the spot. When I'm conceptualizing what a forward should provide in the context of this Republic midfield, I want someone who moves actively, can hold the ball up to free LaGrassa and Lewis runs, and gives you a physical frame in the box. Williams ticks all of these boxes for me. I think that he's a somewhat poor passer, and his defensive work rate is wanting, but his movement and finishing make him a spectacular option.
My two other shouts fit in slightly different molds but could be equally effective. Cal Jennings, formerly of Memphis and Las Vegas, is in another tier from Williams in terms of finishing. He's a poacher's poacher who would give you worse hold-up, but he'd feast off of his teammates' shots on rebound looks. Meanwhile, Sean Okoli is a former MVP with Cincinnati whose recent finishing mediocrity belies a proven striking skillset. His frame is great, and his creation in both the playoffs and regular season paint the picture of a complete forward in a way that the other two can't match.
No matter what route Sacramento goes at striker, I think you have to lump them in with the premature title contenders right now. That midfield is pure dynamite, and an already-good defense will get stronger with the signings of Conor Donovan, who "gives you a little bit of everything at a high caliber," and Danny Vitiello, whose 65th percentile GSAA puts the team's 34th percentile output in 2021 to shame. A great forward would cement this team as a top threat, but things are looking up in California's capital.
Moving down the coast, I've had a rather up-and-down week thinking about Orange County's moves. The big thing right of the bat is Eric Calvillo's exit for El Paso. I've already spilled too much ink on his fit with the Locomotive, but my initial thoughts in terms of OCSC's fortunes were even more pessimistic. When I talked about Matt LaGrassa's two-way potential as a #10 above, I may as well have been describing the things that Calvillo actually did on a week-to-week basis last year. Though more of a powerful dribbler than a cerebral creator, the Salvadoran was the engine for his team's attack, and it directly led to a championship victory.
With Calvillo out, Richard Chaplow brought in Kevin Partida to plug the hole in the center of the park. I need to start by saying that Partida is just excellent. He only made a few appearances for Indy last year coming off of some health struggles, but his 2020 in Reno was a masterful season that deserved all-league honors. At his peak, the midfielder is a ball of box-to-box energy that's constantly winning possession in the press while proving impossible to dispossess going the other way.
Next up, the champs added Erick Torres, who I most closely associate with a rip-roaring loan spell for Chivas USA nearly a decade ago. Since then, Torres has tallied 21 goals in 120 appearances, which isn't anyone's idea of great production. Atlanta fans seemed to be fond of the Mexican forward's hold-up and linking play in his latest stop, but "Cubo" still only converted a single goal during his time in Georgia. Nonetheless, I think I (foolishly?) trust the pedigree that Torres brings to the table in terms of goalscoring at the USL level.
All that said, here's where I'm at in terms of an Orange County system for 2022:
The big thing here is the return to a classic 4-4-2 look. Kevin Partida is a #8 that's brilliant in a central pair; he would be misused as a Calvillo-style #10. Given the current construction of the roster, Partida would slide in next to Tommy McCabe in the middle, instantly creating one of the league's most destructive defensive duos. Still, who's driving buildup in this pair? The former Reno man gives you a bit of spark, but there would be a huge burden on long balls and Iloski-centric play-driving.
Meanwhile, the Torres signing is too high-profile to see him riding the pine, necessitating a two-striker look to fit the undroppable and brilliant Ronaldo Damus. The playoff MVP is an underratedly strong presser in addition to being a prodigious finisher, and I like his pairing with Torres in a vacuum. That said, he tended to drift wide and become disinterested when paired in a 4-4-2 last year, which completely undercuts the contributions that Damus brings as a complete forward. This is something to watch for sure.
On paper and by name alone, Partida and Torres are amazing additions, and l've laid out the way in which they suit a possible 4-4-2 system. That said, I'm scared that these changes for Orange County signify a backwards step. This team is still a playoff contender for me on paper, but losing Calvillo's driving impetus in the context of an already-inconsistent attack is a red flag. There are more signings to come, but I'm not sold on OCSC's offseason to date.
In my inaugural offseason power rankings last weekend, I had Tampa a step below the bonafide title contenders pending another round of re-signings. Someone in the front office must've been paying attention, because the Rowdies brought back five key contributors, including Lewis Hilton, Aaron Guillen, and Leo Fernandes. Alongside some new additions, this is where I see Tampa in terms of a lineup at the moment:
The best new name here is Jake Areman, formerly of Charlotte. He’s an exceptionally technical player with a great work rate, and his contributions as the left wingback in the Independence system last season were unbelievably important. He was the cog that let Enzo Martinez, Dane Kelly, and Sylvain Marveaux go to work in a really fun Charlotte side. Given the announced returns of Hilton and Laurence Wyke as well as Junior Etou’s move, I expect Areman to fill a similar left-sided hole in the Rowdies’ lineup. Crucially, that liberates Leo Fernandes to play as an unabashed attacker once more.
What can‘t be said about Fernandes’ skillset? His dribbling and ball control are endlessly tricky, and they’re sharp enough to let him shred set defenses in the final third. He’s a good passer, and he’s one of the best players in the USL in terms of self-creation. That said, he was most often used in the left-sided spot down the stretch rather than as a striker or #10. Often, Fernandes would move up as a ”break glass in case of emergency” option. His wingback contributions were still great, but the dynamism he brings as a forward are more enticing for me. The clip below shows how he gets involved in that kind of role.
With Areman's signing, you’ve gone from strength to strength on the flank while activating one of the league’s best weapons up top. Fernandes is going to thrive in this freer role, and it gives Tampa a security blanket with Sebastian Guenzatti’s return still pending. Even with Forrest Lasso and Evan Louro out the door, the changes this team has made put them squarely back into title contention.
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