Last season, I had New Mexico United winning the Mountain Division on the way to serious playoff run. That, uh, didn't exactly turn out. Troy Lesense's side missed the playoffs entirely amidst up-and-down form, injuries, and general lethargy. For me, the biggest issues for New Mexico came in the central midfield. Players like Juan Guzman, Michael Azira, and Sergio Rivas were fine in those spots, but none excelled at ball progression, and the team suffered for it. Below, you can see how United compared to the rest of the league in terms of shot creation and progressivity in the middle.
Evidently, the results weren't great on either front. Indeed, New Mexico was third-from-bottom in terms of their central midfielders' share of forward passes. By shots on target, the club placed 18th out of 31 teams. There were definitely moments of joy in attack (Chris Wehan's return, in particular, was galvanizing), but getting there in the first place gave Lesense's crew fits all year long. Indeed, the clip below illustrates the problem within the framework of New Mexico's classic three-at-the-back setup.
Coming from a midseason game against San Antonio, this short sequence evidences a few issues for New Mexico. That first ball into Rivas' feet is easily denied; he can't turn up the pitch amidst tight pressure and immediately passes backwards. Opposition pressure is obviously at play here, but the system has an effect as well. United's right wingback isn't even in frame to begin with, rendering him null as a threat and allowing San Antonio to pinch inside. With the ball back at defender Rashid Tetteh's feet, some central options are still at play. Instead, Tetteh eschews them all for a risky through ball that's turned over with ease. New Mexico likes to use their defenders as springboards in buildup, but this looks like a lack of trust more than a stylistic preference. Tetteh simply doesn't think the centermen have the ability to progress the ball, and everyone is worse off as a result.
Facing this issue while transitioning to the new Zach Prince regime, New Mexico wisely changed things up with their roster. Preseason lineups indicate that they'll probably stick with the back three, but multiple additions in the midfield have improved the progressive dynamic in their pivot. No one better evidences this than Will Seymore, a USL veteran signed over from Ireland. His highlights are seen below.
Clearly, there's much to like in Seymore's game. He's springing one-two sequences to beat defenders, utilizing his tight ball control to suck foes in and open up switches, and deftly finding teammates in space with one-touch balls. Seymore may lack the defensive chops that, say, Juan Guzman brought to the table, but I'd argue the trade-off is a beneficial and necessary one. After all, New Mexico's back line is rock-solid and designed by its three-man character to combat breaks. Further, Alex Tambakis (70th percentile GAR in 2021; 74th projected in 2022) is a stalwart in net. You can afford to lose some steel if it fixes a sputtering offense and lets Wehan, Amando Moreno, and Neco Brett go to work.
Alongside Justin Portillo, a similarly progressive passer and delightfully intelligent holder, Seymore could leave a major impact on the course of New Mexico's upcoming campaign. He's a prime example of a smart acquisition that addresses a clear issue. I currently have United as the fifth-place finisher in the Western Conference, and my data-based estimates have them sixth. If Seymore comes good, I really think they could be a dark horse that rises above those estimates.
Looking at the Eastern Conference and my 2021 predictions, I had FC Tulsa pegged perfectly. They made the playoffs as the eighth and final seed, coming fourth in the Central Division ahead of rivals like Oklahoma City and Indy. By and large, Tulsa was fine. That's not a ringing endorsement, nor is it an indictment of any sort. Michael Nsien's side was dynamic in attack (how could a team with Lebo Moloto, Joaquin Rivas, and Rodrigo Da Costa not be?) but greatly struggled in their own half. Indeed, centerback mistakes were the key thing that doomed Tulsa in 2021; they came 15th in GAR from CBs and 14th in shots allowed, perfectly middling numbers that belied a real propensity for errors. Their numbers are plotted below.
In every sense, this Tulsa team was painfully average at the core of their defense. Players like Modou Jadama, Johnny Fenwick, and Bradley Bourgeois were in and out of the two starting centerback spots, struggling to forge chemistry all the while. They generally did a good job at putting out fires, but it felt like every game featured one or two huge gaffes that changed things entirely. Below, you can see such an instance from their 6-2 playoff drubbing at the hands of Tampa Bay.
You can fault the left-sided defender for allowing the cross or the goalkeeper for failing to claim the ball, I suppose, but the real problem here comes with the marking around the six-yard box. There's an absolute failure to pick up Sebastian Guenzatti(!) of all players. His movement is sublime, but any defender worth his salt must be perpetually aware of a striker that's put up more than 50 goals in the last three years. No one tracks him, and there's a blatant lack of communication and responsibility in equal measure.
Tulsa recognized their defending as an issue entering the offseason and really put a premium on improvement at the core of their unit. Rightly, they leaned into the continued quality of their attack and focused their spending on players like Petar Cuic, a Kansas City product capable as a holding midfielder or centerback, and Adrian Diz, a fringe all-league central defender from Rio Grande Valley. Both moves, particularly the latter, can help revolutionize the Tulsa defense. Still, a different pick-up stands out: that of Ronald Rodriguez, a Salvadoran international. Rodriguez's highlights are seen in the ensuing clip.
You really get the sense of Rodriguez as a cerebral but physically capable presence here. Against turnover-driven breaks, he's quick to pick up a man and cut out a shooting lane. Versus counters, he's adept at backtracking and turning his hips to maintain flexibility. In block, his marking and positional sense are strong. He even gives you a set-piece presence to boot. At just 23 years old and with double-digit caps already, Rodriguez projects as an absolute game-changer at the USL level. If the Salvadoran does, in fact, come good, I think that he can make Tulsa a dark horse in the Eastern Conference in their own right, liberating the attacking front with the stability he'll help provide.
Analyzing the Will Seymore and Ronald Rodriguez signings in tandem, I'm struck by the overarching sense of self-awareness and intentionality in both cases. The respective Prince and Nsien regimes in New Mexico and Tulsa honestly assessed the gaps within their teams and addressed them in considerate manners. Too often, I think clubs in this league try too hard to make a splash (think Erick Torres displacing Ronaldo Damus), fail to consider the whole picture in terms of the greater community (...hi, Andrew Carleton), or spread their resources too thin rather than key in on singular difference-makers. In these senses, New Mexico and Tulsa passed the proverbial test with flying colors, and that overarching wisdom in their dual approaches has me high on them as possible threats for 2022.
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