When I've thought about the Eastern Conference in 2022, no team has addled me quite like the Charleston Battery. They've seen a wholesale shift in their system and mentality with the departure of Mike Anhaeuser, who'd been with the team in some form for almost thirty years, and entrance of Conor Casey, a new face in the USL. Hints about the extent of Charleston's stylistic changes are sparing, and the preseason will reveal a lot, but I wanted to dig into things nonetheless.
In terms of personnel, Charleston ranks fifteenth out of twenty-five returning teams for the share of 2021 minutes played retained for the new campaign, hovering at 50%. The share of returning value-added sits similarly. Some huge talents and longstanding servants of the club have said goodbye; Zeiko Lewis (SAC), Angelo Kelly-Rosales (PIT), Logan Gdula (TBD), and Robbie Crawford (TBD) all gave a ton to the badge. Lewis and Gdula, in fact, drove much of this team's attack through the wide areas in years past, and the Kelly-Rosales pairing with Crawford in the middle provided heaps of industry and gumption.
That said, these seemingly debilitating losses could aid in refreshing what was, one could argue, a stale roster. Charleston came well short of a playoff slot in the hyper-competitive Atlantic Division, ranking 22nd in terms of goal difference and shots-on-target margin. They weren't bad per se, but you felt like they were treading water in a lot of ways. A few statistics help to illustrate their approach and the flaws innate to it:
Last year, the Battery were third-to-last in possession share and PPDA, which measures press intensity. This signals passivity.
Meanwhile, they ranked in the top third for long passes and mid-table for goals and shot creation. The offensive approach was hopeful.
Finally, Charleston was third from top in defensive actions by defenders and last in goalkeeper Goals Saved Above Average. Errors abounded.
What kind of picture does this paint in sum? Last year's Battery sat off the ball in a deep-lying 4-4-2, putting a premium on defensive shape and organization. They relied on active intervention from their central defenders, but they ultimately conceded too many looks and were punished thanks to bad goalkeeping. When they did get stops, Charleston tried to play direct long passes and break with speed down the wings. but did so only to middling success.
With that in mind, I want to start considering 2022 with a focus on goalkeeping and the performance of Joe Kuzminsky in his sixth year in South Carolina. Put simply, last year was a disaster. Kuzminsky, who had performed in the 97th percentile of all USL players(!) in 2020, saw his performance tank, as seen in the numbers. Part of this falls on his shoulders, but I think that the shot quality he faced made a real difference too. His teammates were simply too error-prone, regularly making foolish challenges or losing marks in ways that doomed Kuzminsky. He could've done more, but I'm expecting a renaissance in 2022.
Part of that bounce in goal will come from improvements in central defensive play. Leland Archer is the talisman at the back for Charleston, a true defensive anchor who projects as a top-ten or -twenty guy at the position in my preseason numbers. His athleticism and intelligence will likely combine with the 6'4" frame of ex-Riverhound Preston Kilwien in a back four. Kilwien's baseline numbers don't pop, but that's because of a Pittsburgh system that focused on midfield closing and used the player as a backstop and aerial dominator. His passing is probably worse than that of the starter he's replacing, Jarad van Schaik, but the defensive dynamic is nakedly improved.
Last year, as mentioned, Charleston largely relied on a 4-4-2 structure. At best, it lent defensive solidity and cut off passing lanes around the midfield, forcing turnovers and letting Charleston attack directly through the wings. Returning left back A. J. Paterson was crucial in this tactical formulation. In the linked clip here, Paterson puts on a masterclass, driving transition off of those turnovers and breaking opposing lines with sharp passing and movement. His return is big news, matched by the addition of former Tulsa star Matt Sheldon on the opposite flank. Logan Gdula was excellent on that side and will be missed off the pitch, but Sheldon is a perennial all-league performer who played at a top-ten-percentile caliber last year. He's strong on both feet, endlessly progressive as a passer, and more than willing to track back; on top of that, he can play any role from defensive fullback to that of a roving, mobile forward. Make no mistake: this is one of the offseason's biggest transfers.
If fullback is a position of certain strength, the midfield is an area where I have concerns but can see upside. Below, you can see the highlights for two new additions centrally: Dominic Oduro, formerly of Memphis, and Andrew Booth, a graduate from League One. Stylistically, Oduro projects as more of a destroyer. He'll sit ahead of the defensive line, position himself well, and dump the ball to a more creative teammate when he's in possession. Booth is more enticing to me. My value-added modeling for League One had him in the 86th percentile of performers, and my data underrates less attacking-minded midfielders. At his best, I think that Booth can be a number eight that gets box to box and drives progression.
In terms of the wings, there's plenty of depth but a real need for someone to step up to become an impact player. Zeiko Lewis, sitting wide but cutting inside to open windows and free overlaps, stirred the drink for the Battery from these spots. Still, returners like DZ Harmon and Claudio Repetto had moments as well. They'll need to raise their game next year in Lewis' absence, especially given that neither Oduro nor Booth project as a game-dictating #10. One more name to know here, and that's another third-tier riser in Shak Adams of Tucson. He was a 75th percentile performer on the strength of his dribbling and progression but came in the bottom-half for both xG and xA. Who among these players makes the leap, of any? Time will tell.
If I have midfield question marks, they're countered by a qualified belief in this forward group, especially in the figure of twenty-one-year-old Nicque Daley. You can see some of his tape below alongside players like Romario Piggot and the aforementioned Repetto, but Daley is the man I'm expecting to break out in 2022. The slim striker, leveraging great awareness and movement, tallied eight goals on 77th percentile xG last year, and I think his mobility is going to pair nicely with the extra wide threat provided by figures like Sheldon and the central progression of Booth and company.
The forward group has to improve from a middling 15th-ranked goals added tally if this Charleston side wants to compete in 2022. I truly think that the defensive errors and goalkeeping conundrum are a thing of the past, but my worries about the Battery breaking opponents down through the middle and scoring through non-Daley threats temper my expectations. Could this team find itself in the top seven out east? Absolutely. Will they? A lot depends on players like Booth and Adams making the step up, and for that reason I have this team on the outside looking in.
Time for some mailbag hits now! I appreciate the questions as always, but I don't have a whole lot of color to add here. In any event:
My fearless USL Show boss Kaylor came with a lovely prompt on which team crests and nicknames are the most intimidating. Combining both factors, I'll give the edge to Rio Grande Valley, best known as the Toros. I don't mess with bulls, and the integration of the horns into their logo is fun. I think the Red Bulls have a similar argument to make, but they lose out thanks to energy drink connotations. One more quick shout for the small but mighty Californian bear on the Sacramento crest.
I also got a question from Rising fan @SCS1557 about teams that could make a run in the Open Cup akin to the 1999 tournament-finalist Rochester Rhinos, adding the context of whether such a performance is possible given the current gap between the first and second divisions. It would be boring to just pick my top two or three power-ranked teams, so I'll make an argument for one favorite and one dark horse. Tampa is my choice amongst the high-powered stalwarts. They run a consistent system, enjoy a ton of roster continuity, and have the defensive chops to hold firm for ninety minutes against a better team. Deeper down the table, how about Oakland? They upset one-seed El Paso in last year's USL playoffs and return a stout defense. Overall, though, I doubt the potential of a Rhinos-esque run in 2022. MLS is just too high-spending and talented to me.
One more section here, and that's an update to my highly subjective and highly inaccurate power rankings! We've got two big risers this week. First up, FC Tulsa, whose additions of JJ Williams at striker and Adrian Diz at centerback have me really excited. Pairing with Salvadoran international and new signee Ronald Rodriguez at back, I think Diz is due for a huge year in the Tulsa defense. Next, Loudoun United, who added four players with bonafide USL and MLS experience. Trey Muse is going to be awesome in goals, and I'm high on Azaad Liadi from Tormenta in attack. Might we see ex-Sacramento man Hayden Sargis on loan from MLS too?
El Paso is up for me as well, and I think that’s a course correction more than anything. Full credit to my USL Show co-host Phil Baki on his interview with new gaffer John Hutchinson, which really sold me on the vision there. This team is going to be bright, and I’m enamored with the midfield depth provided by Mares, Velazquez, Calvillo, Ryan, and Luna. That’s, what, five all-league players? Their wide depth is lacking given Hutchinson’s wing-centric talk, but there’s a lot to like overall.
Most of the rest of the league held firm for me. Indy Eleven jumped with Stefano Pinho inbound, and Colorado Springs are coming back to earth for me a bit, but it's a lot of subtle movement across the board.
On the extreme end in the negative sense, I'm fairly out on San Antonio right now. Jose Gallegos couldn't be a bigger loss. Even with Marcus Epps out, I thought he could drive the attack, but losing both tanks their dynamism. Deshane Beckford is a crucial signing that’ll shine in the space this team forges on the counter, but more is needed. With those losses and an unproven midfield group, signing three starting-caliber goalkeepers was a dumb allocation of resources. This team is going to defend with Fabien Garcia adding to a stellar core, butmaybe sign a proven midfielder at some point? Even amidst this slander, I have San Antonio just one spot outside of the playoffs. They’re close to being super competitive yet again, but I have to face reality for now.
In any event, that's all I've got. Keep reading my rambling posts, retweeting my breakdowns, and listening to the USL Show!