Hey y'all, welcome to the first iteration of a sub-project that I hope to make a regular fixture of my coverage of the league. I've been floating the idea of a writing or podcasting venture for a while now but lacked the time, so I figured that the offseason would be a good time to try some things out.
As a quick plug, I wanted to note that my offseason tracker should be launching imminently. It'll track transactions, provide predicted lineups, and come with the usual suite of stats and data that I try to bring to the table. With that said, let's dig in to some questions!
To start, I wanted to address my pal Kaylor Hodges' (@KaylorHodges) question on my off-season plans and life status in general. Also, check out Kaylor's Hammering Down podcast!
I mentioned the offseason hub in my introduction, and you can see the home page for it in the picture above at left. I'll be keeping it posted with transactions as the months wear on, and I'll be writing up every time once the rosters start to settle down a bit.
The basic hub will show major ins and outs, and I've also included 2021 rankings for shots-on-target margin, points per game, and position group Goals Above Replacement rankings. Each team's page will show their 2021 statistical radar, a projected lineup, and the stats of the top-ten minutes earners from last year, color coded by their return status for next season. Let me know what else I should be adding!
In terms of my life more broadly, I'm doing well! For those who don't know, I'm finishing my senior year at New York University, where I'm studying business and history. I'll be moving into a data analysis role at a consulting role post-graduation, but for now I'm neck deep in editing for my senior history thesis and preparation for my business statistics final exams.
Now, onto the soccer. I got a really interesting question from Peter Bloom (@peterwbloom) as to which teams were the most lucky or unlucky in the 2021 campaign. He asked for an xG-based perspective more than an injury-centric one, so I compiled a look at the biggest over- and under-performers when looking at shots on target versus point earned.
There are a few trends to note here. Los Angeles and Rio Grande were the two biggest losers when comparing their shot dominance to their ultimate point totals, and Oakland and Hartford were amongst the biggest overperformers. I largely think these gaps were a stylistic phenomenon.
The latter pair, OAK and HFD, were two of the most long-ball dependent sides in the USL; the Roots tended to play into Quincy Amarikwa or Jeremy Bokila's feet, whereas Athletic would use talented deep passers like Conor McGlynn and Thomas Janjigian to play into the channels, often getting chances from second balls in the process. What does this mean? These teams generated less chances from a purely numeric perspective by the hit-or-miss nature of long balls, but the opportunities that they did manufacture were super high quality.
Miami is another interesting case in terms of overperformance. They were able to absorb pressure and counterattack stupendously, allowing a decent number of shots that, to my eye, weren't the most dangerous. A lot of that is due to players like Paco Craig, Bolu Akinyode, and Connor Sparrow in goal. Those three, emblematic of the quality MIA defense, all rated in the 85th percentile or above for Goals Above Replacement; Sparrow's all-league quality between the posts goes a long way here especially.
On the flip side, LAG and RGV were in the bottom half of the league for long passing, but I'd point to different factors for their underperformance. Los Angeles was a side that looked to possess the ball up the pitch and create through studs like Jorge Hernandez (99th percentile xA) or generate all-out counterattacks through wide speedsters like Owen Lambe and Josh Drack. RGV, meanwhile, possessed through a less dynamic and more methodical attack, generating a lot of looks that weren't necessarily the highest quality.
One final case to note: Colorado Springs. This was a team that looked to get out in transition at a breakneck pace, and they largely succeeded in that aim. They were fairly shot-dominant, but the opportunities they gave up out of that all-out-attack system tended to be very high quality. Paired with Sean Melvin's 50th percentile or worse GSAA, GAR, and save rates, and you start to understand the "bad luck" or underperformance.
Another interesting prompt came via another friend, Benton (@PurpleSDF) of the fantastic Vamos Morados site. He wanted to know if there were any League One prospects that I'm eyeing to make the leap to the Championship. To be honest, I rarely watch League One, but I decided to copy and paste the whole set of that league's stats and data to reproduce my Goals Above Replacement numbers for the third tier. The top twenty-five performers were as follows, and the full data set will be linked on my offseason hub:
I have absolutely no idea if these are accurate, to be totally honest. What I do know is that Brandon Mays (@BrandonMays18) is putting out insanely good content on the league at his new USL League One Review website, and he just profiled Max Flick from North Carolina (89th percentile GAR; 31st in L1) at this link. Check out that piece, and make sure you're following Brandon for informed tactical coverage of the third tier.
One more question, courtesy of Sandals the Lurky Turkey (@PumpyTweets), who wanted my take on the OKC hiatus.
Let's start with the off-the-field components, which are really what's important here. By all accounts, the choice to take a year off blindsided basically everyone in the organization from the players to the technical staff and everywhere in between. I had been in contact with some members of the organization the day before the announcement(!) discussing the possibility of helping out with some data work for next year, so I can definitely attest to the veracity of this. Pair that with existing reputation issues for OKC's ownership and, uh, it ain't a pretty picture. This is a side with ambition on the technical side, and they're being hamstrung by less-than-spectacular overlords. The league office surely can't be happy about that.
At the same time, maybe the hiatus can be a positive? I lean towards the negative interpretation here, but a truly revamped stadium paired with a renewed commitment to marketing and an increase in investment could be great for this team and this market. It's doubtful that we see that sort of thing, but I can dream.
Naturally, I want to consider some of the on-field consequences of the hiatus. I was super bullish on this team, especially after Leigh Veidman came in and championed the 3-4-3 system. After the coaching change, this team played at a points-per-game pace roughly akin to Central playoff sides like Tulsa and Memphis. At back, central defenders like Conor Donovan and Mitch Osmond were stupendous, and C.J. Cochran was delightful in goal. Up front, Villyan Bijev was in my third-team all-league out on the left wing. All four players mentioned rated in the 85th percentile or better for value, and they're all ripe for the picking. I'll be fascinated to see where they end up, in addition to stalwarts like right-back Zach Ellis-Hayden and the bright Aidan Daniels in attack.
That's all for now! I'll be posting another mailbag prompt at some point, and I'll maybe be moving into the podcast world if I get enough questions in a given week. Be on the lookout for the offseason hub soon, and enjoy your weeks otherwise.