Welcome in to the ever-updating hub for the 2022 USL Championship Playoffs! I'll be updating this page with previews early in the week after each round of the tournament, so be sure to check in regularly. I'll also keep this as a hub for my match reviews:
Conference Quarterfinals
Conference Semifinals
Conference Finals
But without further ado, let's hit the previews...
Championship Game
San Antonio - Louisville
Sunday (11/13), 8:30 Eastern
This Season:
None
And then there were two. Despite my picks to the contrary, San Antonio and Louisville have felt fated to meet in the title game since the summer. It's a bout between two defensive juggernauts with radically different styles, and one that begs a number of tactical questions.
Louisvillle's shape is a persistent question. Switching from a back three into a two-centerback shape shifted the balance of power in the midfield and led to a win against Pittsburgh, but a return to a defensive threesome powered a bunker-and-break victory over Tampa Bay. I anticipate a Wynder-Charpie-Totsch trio to match San Antonio's attacking threesome.
Will Brian Ownby start over Ray Serrano? Ownby had an extended substitute appearance against the Rowdies, and his movement and status as an aerial target stood out. However, Serrano's pace in recovering towards defense may be a better fit against a break-heavy foe.
For San Antonio, Santiago Patino and Samuel Adeniran seem nailed into the front line. Who fills the final slot? Cristian Parano could fit nicely as an offensive-minded choice, someone who can camp in the half space, spearhead controlled transition moves, and leverage the aggression of Amadou Dia on the overlap. Still, Justin Dhillon was revelatory in that role as a right-sided midfielder last time out. His defensive contributions and forays into the strike corps on goal kicks were wildly potent.
I'm also flagging the late-arriving runs of Connor Maloney as a huge danger point. He did the business against Colorado Springs in dragging out a defensive midfielder and scoring the winner, but repeating the trick will be a tall task. Tyler Gibson, a former San Antonio Scorpion, is the best positional #6 in the history of the lower leagues for my taste. Dragging him out of position is the only way to free Maloney, but it's a Herculean task.
Enoch Mushagalusa will figure into a front two if my back-three premonitions are correct, and his side-to-side runs are one of the few ways to beat the San Antonio defensive line. There's a real scenario where his pacey bursts move Jasser Khmiri or Mitchell Taintor a shade too close to touch, opening a key gap that turns this game.
If it goes to penalties, I prefer Jordan Farr over Danny Faundez. Farr is just fucking brilliant in net; no one matched him in 2022. Still, Louisville has more arrows in the quiver, and I don't think we get to that point. I don't necessarily see a role for, say, Elijah Wynder as a bizarre, physical #10, but Danny Cruz knows how to employ him and the entire Louisville bench. Winning in the Alamo City is a feat, but I just see the Kentuckians doing enough to get over the line.
Prediction: 1-0, LOU Win
Conference Finals
Louisville - Tampa Bay
Saturday (11/5), 7:30 Eastern
This Season:
TBR W 1-0 at TBR
LOU W 1-0 at LOU
I hate to be that guy, but Tampa Bay deserved to lose against Memphis last weekend. Their second-half switch into a 4-4-2 leveled out the midfield, but it moved the match to a state of parity after a dour first half. Against a Louisville team that always uses three central midfielders - the root cause of the Rowdies' struggles - how will Neill Collins adjust?
Look out for a true 4-3-3. Yann Ekra's box-to-box tendencies further boosted Tampa Bay against Memphis, and he could be invaluable in a deeper role if his side wants to go toe-to-toe in Kentucky. Still, that shape would leave the flanks vulnerable to Amadou Dia and Manny Perez.
Those two were roundly excellent in Louisville's comeback win against Pittsburgh, but that revival also required adjustment and shape changes. I think that Danny Cruz starts off in a 3-5-2 again, but he's clearly willing to return to a back four if needed. Still, the aforementioned wingbacks offer too much of a strategic edge in the upcoming matchup to stray from the basic blueprint.
Something that we sleep on is how slow Tampa Bay is in the wide areas. Aaron Guillen and Conner Antley aren't unathletic, but they're better fits in the center as compared to the elite wingers in the USL. Enoch Mushagalusa is salivating.
Injuries still abound for the #1 seed in the East. I'm dying to get Brian Ownby back into the mix, though Ray Serrano does a passable job in a hybrid spot halfway between the right wing and central midfield. If Cruz feels really adventurous, Serrano could sit for Elijah Wynder. Though he excelled in more of a left-sided spot last round, he's two-footed enough to do the job, and his physicality matches up against Tampa Bay's centermen than the lithe, quick Serrano.
The one problem for Louisville from opening day in March to now is their defense in the channels. Totsch, Wynder, and Charpie just struggle a bit to cover the half spaces, especially against longer balls and high-tempo moves. Leo Fernandes and Jake LaCava live in those areas, and I think that carries the Rowdies to another Eastern Conference title.
Prediction: 2-1, TBR Win
San Antonio - Colorado Springs
Sunday (11/6), 8:30 Eastern
This Season:
SAFC W 1-0 at COS
SAFC W 1-0 at SAFC
Sweeping the season series is a meaningful data point in favor of San Antonio when considering the Western Conference Final, but this isn't the same Switchbacks team that went down 1-0 to their upcoming opponent barely more than a month ago. For one, Colorado Springs used a full-blown back three at the time; recently, they've succeeded on the back of a 4-2-3-1 shape.
The core of the shape comes in the central midfield. Cam Lindley sits the deepest and dictates play, Zach Zandi sits behind the striker while occasionally forming a true threesome off-ball, and the third spot is filled by a shuttler a la Steven Echevarria or Beverley Makangila. In the regular season, the latter pair formed a twosome in a 5-2-3 and completely clogged the middle. That isn't how Brendan Burke plays, given the choice, but might he go defensive because of the track record?
Focusing on defensive contributions in the central midfield might be missing the forest for the trees. San Antonio is famously direct, and their forward line skirts high and wide relative to opposing pivots. In this game, I'd expect Cristian Parano to operate as more of a true forward to give the strike corps a three-on-two edge over the Switchback centerbacks.
In that vein, fullback aggression is going to be a flashpoint. Tristan Hodge, a natural central defender, has been good at left back, but he may have to stay low to fend off the host's long threat. Sebastian Anderson is a truer overlapper at right, but he, too, will be limited; Samuel Adeniran's role on his flank worsens the danger.
Still, Colorado Springs simply will not score if they can't get their fullbacks high. Michee Ngalina has to get behind the wingbacks or Jairo Henriquez needs to find passing lines in front of them. Without overlapping runs, San Antonio can man mark that creative tandem.
Call me crazy, but I'd start Aaron Wheeler over Elvis Amoh. Long balls, hold-up play, and physicality can pay dividends. San Antonio won't leave any space for the mazy, smart Amoh to succeed, no matter how great he is. Ultimately, I don't know how much that personnel choice matters. I really struggle to see how anyone gets past San Antonio at the moment. They're so, so disciplined, and they win this game.
Prediction: 1-0, SAFC Win
Conference Semifinals
San Antonio - Oakland
Friday (10/28), 8:30 Eastern
This Season:
Draw 1-1 at SAFC
SAFC W 2-0 at OAK
Since these teams last met in September, Oakland has five wins in seven games and looks formidable. Noah Delgado has proven adept at rotating his midfield personnel to fit certain matchups, and he'll need to do the same thing if he wants to upset a ferociously good San Antonio team.
In that away win a few months back, Mohammed Abu was the difference. San Antonio employed more of a 5-3-2, and Abu sat rather deep to address the fluid attacking line. The Roots sailed past San Diego by overloading and pushing both of their wingers to one side, but #25 will anticipate that danger. What's more, he also can rely on PC, aggressive center- and wingbacks, and deep tracking from the forwards. SAFC's team defending is an order of a magnitude better than the Loyal's.
Oakland finds success in their center-centric press, but their opponent this week is relatively immune to that threat. San Antonio plays long and rarely dithers with the ball, rendering high-charging Jose Hernandez less effective.
If I'm the Roots, I'm nervous about Juan Azocar and Edgardo Rito in a defensive sense. Those two have to push high on the overlap for the Roots' system to work in attack, but any turnovers while they're upfield will be punished. No team is better than San Antonio about lumping balls into the channels and leveraging high opposing wingbacks.
In that vein, I also expect Ignacio Bailone to begin this game on the bench despite a run with four goals in his last seven matches. Yeah, Bailone's strength and hold-up skill can be an anchor, but I'd prefer the pace of Samuel Adeniran and Justin Dhillon in transition. He can make a difference off the bench if need be.
Ultimately, my bigger thought is that San Antonio doesn't have flaws that Oakland can easily exploit. The Roots have consistently surprised me, and if anyone can find a chink in the armor, it's Delgado. Still, I lean towards the favorite.
Prediction: 1-0, SAFC Win
Louisville - Pittsburgh
Saturday (10/29), 7:30 Eastern
This Season:
LOU W 2-0 at LOU
Draw 0-0 at PIT
By the numbers, Louisville is the overall favorite in the playoff field. They're excellent and controlling on the ball and very efficient in the press. Their goalkeeping is among the best in the league. In terms of expected goals, actual goal difference, and my squaring of the two, no team is as strong at both ends.
Still, Danny Cruz has me a bit confused. How real is the back three that returned in the final few weeks of the season? There were a few issues of familiarity and spacing in that high defensive line against Hartford, for instance, but Louisville only conceded seven shots in total in that game. What's more, the three-centerback alignment is chock full of talented passers and liberates Manny Perez and Amadou Dia to go off.
It feels weird that Cameron Lancaster is a secret weapon, but that's the reality right now. He's unmatched as a late-game injection of offense. I'd be surprised to see him start, but I suppose it isn't out of the question. I'm more confused about Brian Ownby. He was hit-or-miss at season's end, and will he be up for this game?
Pittsburgh is a tactical chameleon in an ever deeper sense. Bob Lilley balanced front-foot adjustments, reactive tweaks, and everything in-between to beat Birmingham, and I honestly couldn't tell you how he's going to align the Riverhounds this weekend.
What might we expect? Alex Dixon is likely going to sit deeper to hedge against Enoch Mushagalusa. I'd return to the Danny-Griffin-at-CB well against the ferocious Louisville press; if Pittsburgh doesn't start that way, they'll end up there over the course of 90 or more minutes. Getting Angelo Kelly-Rosales' energy into the midfield might be effective against a skillful but slow pivot on the other side.
Jahmali Waite needs to have another huge game for this one to stay tight, and I have a tough time seeing this one break against Louisville no matter what. Lynn Family Stadium is going to be rocking, and that'll carry the hosts.
Prediction: 3-0, LOU Win
Colorado Springs - Sacramento
Saturday (10/29), 8:00 Eastern
This Season:
COS W 3-0 at COS
SAC W 3-0 at SAC
I'm committed to Sacramento because of my playoff bracket picks, but Colorado Springs feels like the favorite here after a rampant win over RGV. There was a whole lot to like in terms of defensive balance for the Switchbacks. Zach Zandi got end to end splendidly, and Macca King is just so natural as a right-leaning holding midfielder. Tristan Hodge is a rock at left back. When Michee Ngalina and Jair Henriquez drop into a lower position in a 4-4-2, the wings become unworkable for opponents.
The offense is still a question mark in the Barry-less era, and a 3-0 margin in round one was misleading in a low-event game that opened up only when RGV needed to throw the kitchen sink up the pitch. Might Aaron Wheeler start? He just gives you an extra anchor and physical presence in the final third, and that might bear fruit against a Sacramento team that doesn't conceded transition looks.
Even with a resurgent opponent on the schedule, the Republic are very much in this one. They adopted more of a traditional back three for much of the New Mexico game, and I wonder if they start with that same tactic here. Why the change? New Mexico finds much of their offense via quick wingers like Amando Moreno, and you wonder if Sacramento will view Michee Ngalina in a similar manner.
Mark Briggs may alternatively prefer a semi-fluid style that looks like a 5-4-1 in block but presses and possesses as a 4-2-3-1. You get the best of both worlds in that case, and Damia Viader is the pivot man on the left; his work rate and energy drove Sacramento last weekend, and his runs let Rodrigo Lopez stay central as a creator.
The high press will be important for the Republic. If Lopez, Viader, and Keko can limit Cam Lindley in the pivot, good things are in store.
Each of these teams can beat you in a million ways, but Sacramento feels like they just have less vulnerabilities in the end.
Prediction: 1-1, SAC AET
Memphis - Tampa Bay
Saturday (10/29), 8:30 Eastern
This Season:
MEM W 3-1 at MEM
TBR W 2-0 at TBR
This is the "prove it" game for Memphis. They've put up a splendid regular season, dispatched with a built-for-the-postseason Detroit side, and look like a clear threat by the numbers. Still, Tampa Bay is the class of the Eastern Conference until proven otherwise. I don't know what becomes of Ben Pirmann and this project beyond 2022 given the contract hoopla, but 901 can make a statement in this game.
Doing so won't be easy. The Tennesseans beat Detroit by overwhelming them three-on-two down the center of the pitch and dropping Aaron Molloy low in build to force a catch-22 in the press. Lewis Hilton and Nicky Law are too sage to concede space in that same manner, and Leo Fernandes and Sebastian Guenzatti are too active in providing back-pressure to cede the breaks that Le Rouge gave up.
I've hit on it a lot recently, but this Rowdies offense is really hard to stop at the moment. Still, Miami kept them relatively contained through an elite midfield pivot performance, and Memphis can't match that. What 901 provides, by contrast, is a hard-nosed front line of pressure, now bolstered by Dylan Borczak. Can the recently-signed winger, Phillip Goodrum, and company trap Aaron Guillen or Robert Castellanos and create runovers?
Last time out in Central Florida, the Fernandes-Guenzatti-LaCava trio remained fearsome, but Dayonn Harris stood out on the left wing. I suspect he'll return to the right to contain Jeremy Kelly, but his wingback-ish deployment was vital for Neill Collins. Harris gives you a real sense of speed and hard-nosed effort that you can't find elsewhere in this team. He's underratedly important.
I've ultimately got the Rowdies winning this game, but I'm not overly sure about it. It wouldn't shock me if Yann Ekra came into the team and Leo Fernandes moved to the left in a 3-5-2 with three centermen. No matter what, I just trust this club to make the right calls.
Prediction: 2-1 TBR Win
Conference Quarterfinals
By virtue of winning their conferences in the regular season, San Antonio and Louisville enjoy first-round byes into the Conference Semifinal round. In dominating the West, San Antonio established themselves as a defensive juggernaut and the second-leading side in the USL by expected goal margin. Louisville, meanwhile, rode a high-possession, high-pressure style to success.
Will the extra week off hurt these teams? With ten days or more between matches this season:
San Antonio beat RGV 3-2 on the road and Atlanta 5-0 at home.
Louisville beat Orange County 3-1 and Hartford 2-1, with both matches at home.
Not exactly world-beating competition, and the playoffs are a different animal, but I doubt that the bye weeks make much of a difference.
Tampa Bay - Miami
Saturday (10/22), 7:30 Eastern
This Season:
MIA W 1-0 at TBR
TBR W 2-1 at MIA
Tampa Bay and Miami both find success in wonky, uneven formations that render this one of the most fascinating tactical matchups of the first round. By the numbers, the Rowdies ought to be the favorite. In my "adjusted goals" metric that balances expected and actual results, the defending Eastern Conference champions are the strongest team playing in the first round. Miami, meanwhile, boasts a top-end defense and elite goalkeeping corps but struggles with a slow, labored attack.
Sebastian Guenzatti's return to form is crucial for Tampa Bay. The forward led all USL players in scoring over the previous three seasons but had contributed just two goals, however, Guenzatti enters the playoffs with three tallies in his club's final three matches. He leads the line in a fluid forward group starring Jake LaCava and Leo Fernandes. That trio is joined by a deeper, right-sided Sebastian Dalgaard in a 4-2-4 press.
On the other hand, Anthony Pulis' Miami work out of a flexible 4-2-3-1. The shape often turns into a classic 4-4-2 in defense with Florian Valot or Christian Sorto joining Kyle Murphy up top; expect that look against Tampa Bay's two-centerback build.
Attack is more interesting in South Beach. Sorto tends to play narrow, allowing Mark Segbers to bomb forward from the right fullback spot. Deeper, Aedan Stanley keeps a three-man back line in progression but belatedly bombs forward in true left-back style when Miami establishes possession in the final third. The balance of this dynamic will define the game. Can Segbers and Stanley stay disciplined and prevent the most electric attackers in the league from breaking in transition?
Devon Williams and Bolu Akinyode must come up big in the pivot and limit an endlessly creative central pair for the Rowdies while also doing double duty as creators. Miami struggles to build down the middle, and that pair needs to step up.
Prediction: 2-1, TBR Win
Memphis - Detroit
Saturday (10/22), 8:00 Eastern
This Season:
Draw 1-1 at DCFC
MEM W 2-0 at MEM
Detroit is the most successful expansion team in recent USL history, and they're thus unlucky to come up against an extremely strong Memphis team in the first round of the postseason. Both of these times are tidy in defense, but the Tennesseans boast a sharper edge and greater sense of breakneck tempo offensively; Le Rouge, however, enjoys the brilliance of Nate Steinwascher's elite performance in net.
In terms of possession-weighted metrics, Memphis is one of the most aggressive pressing teams in the playoff field, and that fire could prove problematic. Detroit is missing two of their three preferred central defenders in Devon Amoo-Mensah, a long-term absence, and Stephen Carroll, recently sidelined. Though Michael Bryant has midfield experience and Karl Ouimette is a competent fullback, the general lack of chemistry could prove problematic.
Memphis' defensive squad selection is a flashpoint. Injuries in their camp led to Rece Buckmaster's emergence as a centerback and Derek Dodson's as a fullback. Dodson is a natural forward but has excelled on the overlap in his defensive utilization. However, Detroit's best offensive looks come when they play long into Antoine Hoppenot or an advanced wingback in the channels. Is Dodson responsible enough to carry that load?
Those aforementioned wingbacks for Trevor James are also important. Memphis relies heavily on Jeremy Kelly cutting inside from the left onto his stronger right foot, and Rhys Williams - or Richard Foster, lineup pending - must stay aware. Still, that defensive onus may stem one of the vital cogs in Detroit's attack. At the same time, the guests must fend off the brilliant deep-lying creation of Aaron Molloy and address Phillip Goodrum's poaching ability; the forward finished second in the Golden Boot race.
Ultimately, I think Memphis is too much of a hydra for Detroit to handle. In a different matchup, I think Le Rouge could make a run, but Ben Pirmann's team is a real contender.
Prediction: 2-0, MEM Win
Colorado Springs - RGV
Saturday (10/22), 8:30 Eastern
This Season:
COS W 3-2 at COS
RGV W 1-0 at RGV
No team in the remaining field has a worse defense than Colorado Springs, and their fate will be defined in attack. With Hadji Barry off to Egypt, can they bring enough offense to advance? The Switchbacks only scored six goals in their final six matches; four of those tallies came in a single match against a shambolic El Paso side, and Colorado Springs lost four of those six bouts.
Conversely, RGV is one of the hottest teams in the USL. With 22 points in their last 10 games, there literally isn't a hotter team, in fact. That last third of the season was defined by Christian Pinzon, Jonas Fjeldberg, and Akeem Ward entering the mix. Wilmer Cabrera had the defensive tools and forged a hard-nosed system, but those players added a much-needed element of explosivity.
Two teams trending in very different directions, then. Still, this isn't an easy match to pick. RGV's high defensive line and aggressive press are uniquely vulnerable to Cam Lindley's inch-perfect passing and the pace of Michee Ngalina in behind. Late-arriving Sebastian Anderson can overlap with the best of 'em to stem the tide of the Toros' vital fullbacks.
The wonky front three with a narrow Jairo Henriquez and Elvis Amoh alongside Ngalina is supremely talented, but this team needs another month to really find that post-Barry chemistry. Still, skill alone can sway things in one-off matches.
At the same time, Colorado Springs has been notably sloppy in the central midfield lately, and Emilio Ycaza can eat your lunch in those areas. Ycaza has five goals and four assists, but he ranked in the 95th percentile for overall value this year and put up top-quarter expected goals and expected assists to boot. He completes a front four that can punish you in a million ways.
Prediction: 0-0, RGV AET
Sacramento - New Mexico
Saturday (10/22), 10:00 Eastern
This Season:
Draw 0-0 at SAC
SAC W 2-1 at SAC
Look, I come into this game with a clear bias. Still, there's a real case that Sacramento is the most overlooked contender in the field heading into the playoffs. Injuries notwithstanding, this is the same club that nearly won the freaking US Open Cup! What's more, Mark Briggs' switch into a 4-2-3-1 in the season finale may have solved the Republic's longstanding offensive woes.
In that shape, the right winger sits narrow as Jack Gurr basically plays the same role he would in a back-three wingback deployment. Duke Lacroix is more staid at left, pairing with the width of Damia Viader to give Rodrigo Lopez all the space and support he could hope for.
At the same time, the last 120' for New Mexico changed my view on this team. They're the worst-ranking side in the postseason by most metrics, and I'm not sold on their offense. Still, the 4-4-1-1 looked fantastic to wrap up 2022. Sergio Rivas was revelatory as a second striker, pressing with aplomb and dropping deep to accommodate Amando Moreno's wanderings.
I would be much more comfortable with New Mexico if Chris Wehan was clicking. Traditionally one of the elite creative players in the USL, he rated around the 40th percentile for expected assists this year. His performance is indicative of an attack that never found its footing in a concrete manner. Simply put, they aren't incisive enough to break past Sacramento. Transition has to be the avenue to goals.
Prediction: 1-0, SAC Win
Birmingham - Pittsburgh
Sunday (10/23), 5:00 Eastern
This Season:
PIT W 1-0 at PIT
BHM W 2-1 at BHM
One year late, we get a matchup that would've been contested in the first round of last year's playoffs. In the case of both Birmingham and Pittsburgh, key midfield additions set these clubs apart from prior iterations. Enzo Martinez, a do-it-all creator for Charlotte, has revolutionized the Legion as a second striker, while Robbie Mertz has yet to recover his full potential for the Riverhounds but still prevents a massive threat.
I'll be flagging Birmingham's pressing style from the opening kick. When Tommy Soehn uses a 4-2-4 in defense and tries to get the Legion on the front foot, good things ensue. For all their talent, this team struggles to break down opponents in settled block, but the press encourages chaos and transitional joy.
Where does Anderson Asiedu start? He's been fine on the wing, but I think he's misused at that spot, and the Legion will need his steel against Mertz and Kenardo Forbes in the middle. Additionally, the extra verve of Prosper Kasim and Marlon in the wide areas can go a long way in pinning Alex Dixon off the ball.
Dixon and that right side for Pittsburgh are important. When the Bob Lilley favorite, sporting four goals and seven assists this year, links with brilliant wide centerback Shane Wiedt, good things happen. Wiedt's advances into the attacking half create overloads and can punish Birmingham's deeper-seated left back.
Food for thought: no Lilley team has advanced past the quarterfinals since 2015. Might he tinker too much? Still, the end-of-year experiment with Danny Griffin at centerback could be the tweak that unlocks everything else for a close-but-no-cigar RIverhounds side.
Prediction: 2-2, BHM AET
San Diego - Oakland
Sunday (10/23), 10:00 Eastern
This Season:
Draw 2-2 at OAK
OAK W 3-1 at SDL
If the playoffs were a beauty contest, San Diego would be the favorite going away. Their offense is in the conversation for the best in the USL, and I'd absolutely deem it the prettiest. The questions come at back. Landon Donovan has pivoted into a purer back three, but spacing issues and surprisingly shoddy goalkeeping numbers from Koke Vegas raise question marks.
Oakland, meanwhile, are middle of the road by most numbers. Not to deal in corny cliches, but the Roots have more heart than anybody else. Noah Delgado has done a pristine job salvaging what could've been a season gone off the rails after Juan Guerra's exit.
The Roots continue to use a 3-4-2-1 shape, but Delgado has iterated on the framework. Juan Azocar, in the conversation for the all-league left back spot, now plays as a true winger in front of Memo Diaz. Edgardo Rito has remained a wingback on the other side, but he plays higher than ostensible forward Lindo Mfeka. The odd mix makes Oakland nightmarish to deal with as an opposing defense, but it renders their transition defense weak.
Few times are as aggressive in the central midfield as Oakland, powered by Jose Hernandez and Charlie Dennis. That's an issue against San Diego; those two rate in the 26th and 20th percentiles for tackle win rate, respectively, and they may well fold against the best creative unit in the USL. Expect big games from Alejandro Guido, Charlie Adams, and the like.
Still, I can't trust the Loyal defense. Oakland's width is uniquely designed to punish the back three, and their fluidity still presents problems against a back four. San Diego also has questions as to injuries and the deployment of players like Elijah Martin.
Prediction: 1-1, SDL AET
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