This time last month, I suggested a handful of transactions that could give certain USL sides a big boost in the playoff hunt. With four or five more games of information on every team, I'm ready to go again. Check out the first piece, but without further ado...
Akeem Ward or Jordan Dover to El Paso
I wrote about the Locomotive's hole at right back last month, and things are worse today. Shavon John-Brown, a natural attacker filling in at the position, went down with injury. Matt Bahner does adequately when he's there, but he can get burned by pacey foes. Meanwhile, no one wants to see a repeat of the Ricardo Zacarias experiment in defense.
To solve the problem, I'm re-upping on the Ward recommendation first and foremost. Since last month, his teammate Memo Diaz re-emerged as a perfectly solid USL starter for the Oakland Roots. That leaves Ward, who I still endorse as a capable defender with high-end skills in attack on the ball. He put up top-quarter defensive actions per 90 in each of his last two USL campaigns, and he does stuff like this in the final third.
Jordan Dover, best known as an all-league-level fullback for the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, should also get a look. He's currently active in League 1 Ontario, and he provides a more conservative, sound option at the back. Dover's USL pedigree is strong, and he's only 27, though his international status as a Canadian could be a slight drawback. He struggled to get games under Bob Lilley last season but still landed in the top quarter for expected assists and crosses per 90, and I love his physicality.
Either player would be a vital get for John Hutchinson, shoring up the one clear hole in this Locomotive lineup. Eder Borelli is a shoo-in for my Team of the Season on the left, and matching that impact on the right would change the game. I love this team's attack, so fixing the defense once and for all is imperative.
Sean Okoli to Birmingham
The Legion are the second-worst finishing team in the USL with a conversion rate of 7%, having scored just 15 times all season. They don't struggle for chance creation, so getting a forward who can pour it on is the aim here. When I say "pour it on," however, I don't simply mean putting the ball in the back of the net.
Juan Agudelo, the main striker for the Legion, has a solidly average 13% conversion rate. However, he tends to slow down attacking moves with the ball at his feet. Without possession, he's not very active as a runner. These factors combine to clog Birmingham in the final third.
Optimally, then, a supplementary striker would bring a certain level of mobility and physicality as a mover. Creation would also be a boon. Further, Birmingham's number nine is expected to rove at the front of the press and deny passing lanes, and they must be able to hold the ball up in transition to unlock speedsters like Marlon or Jonathan Dean.
I pondered going off the grid and calling for a mobile, pacey "false nine" here. Think about a Deshane Beckford, a strong winger with finishing skills and tireless off-ball tendencies. Given San Antonio's glut of great attackers, he'd be worth kicking the can on. If Birmingham wanted to go that route, however, they'd simply move Marlon to the striker spot. No dice.
That leaves me with Sean Okoli. He may be an unlikely target, or at least a player that Orange County SC is unlikely to sell. After all, Okoli has 17 league appearances in 2022, right? Looking closer, I think he could be pried away. Erick Torres and Milan Iloski seem firmly ensconced as the strike pair for the defending champs, and Korede Osundina can fill in as the backup forward; his future is bright. This may be something of a lost season anyway, so OCSC may be happy to collect a fee and work towards a rebuild.
What about the fit? Okoli is a more willing shooter than Juan Agudelo, and he converts at a higher rate. In the past, the striker had a 16-goal season with Cincinnati, and he put up goal-every-other-game results two years ago. What impresses me most about Okoli is the way he moves and how he weaponizes that movement. He leverages a great mix of pace and power in a 6'1" frame to constantly draw opponents out or find space for himself, but he's lethal when he gets a touch too. 95th and 79th percentile expected assist tallies in the last two seasons don't lie.
If I could go back in time for Birmingham, I never let JJ Williams walk. Even now, Williams or not, I think that a transfer is unlikely to supplement the current group. Agudelo hasn't been that bad, and Edi Horvat deserves a shot before anything big goes down. Still, Sean Okoli combines the finishing, energy, movement, and pedigree that I'd be looking for if I ran the Legion.
Thomas Janjigian to Indy
The average central defender in the USL goes long with their passes 17% of the time; for Indy, that rate balloons to 27%. I don't know if that's by design, but it means something. What's more, Indy is fourth-from-last for expected goals per 90, stemming from an inability to build through the middle.
Mechack Jerome and AJ Cochran, the preferred pair for the Eleven in defense, are both capable passers, but both seem a step off the pace for me in 2022. They're a shade below average in terms of passing accuracy, and both are regularly caught out in defense thanks to lacking speed. I think this is a spot ripe for an upgrade.
In that vein, Thomas Janjigian could be an effective addition. He was highly effective in the past for Reno 1868, and I liked his game a lot with Hartford Athletic last season. Currently, the 6'4" veteran seems to be unsigned.
Control and progression are a clear strength for Janjigian. With his passing and composure, Indy would be better able to keep the ball on the ground to work through Justin Ingram and Nicky Law into a talented forward line. With his height and intelligence, the ex-Hartford man would also be a defensive upgrade. He's rangy and gazelle-like in recovery, and his large frame has led to years' worth of above-average aerial win numbers. Further, Janjigian put up an 88th percentile rate of defensive actions per foul conceded last year, hammering home his technical skillset.
Ian Russell or Blair Gavin to Phoenix
I won't get into the case for or against Rick Schantz again, but I have suggestions if Phoenix does make a change. To be clear: I've been on board with a lot of the micro-level tactical decisions Schantz has made in recent weeks, but I think a larger change in his systematic approach is a big problem.
In the past, Phoenix ran with a 4-3-3 shape as a baseline. On the ball, that shape turned into a 3-2-5 marked by a few trends:
The fullbacks moved high to effectively become wingers; think about Amadou Dia or Darnell King here.
The holding midfielder sat in with the centerbacks, setting the tempo and recylcing possession.
Rising pressed intensely to pin play in the final third. The "two" line in the 3-2-5 sat back to spray passes but leapt forward after turnovers to deny clean clearances.
Out of possession, the side sat in a flatter 4-1-4-1. One winger, often Solomon Asante, could leak out in transition to lead breaks and thus restart the offensive cycle.
2022's Phoenix is entirely more passive. They hold under 50% of possession, struggle with passing in the center, and constantly suffer as their fullbacks are caught between forward runs and defensive responsibilities. The lack of counterpressure and loss of that territorial dominance are stark, and I want a replacement who can reassert those priorities.
Let's start with Ian Russell. He managed Reno 1868 for four seasons, and he currently serves as an assistant for Toronto FC. Unless the Canadian club has guaranteed him the head job in the future, I think he could be a viable option.
Russell's Reno sides were highly successful (2nd in the West in 2019, 1st in the West in 2020) and highly possessive (53% in 2019, 57% in 2020). Everything started with a free-flowing defensive system based around man marking. Most every team in modern soccer defends zonally, assigning players to a specific area. This made Reno uniquely difficult to play against.
You can visit this Twitter thread where I break down the system for more detail, but I believe that Russellian man marking would suit an error-prone stable of Rising defenders. In fact, the personnel for this Rising squad nicely fits the template of Reno's 2020 roster.
The roaming, low-discipline tendencies of Baboucarr Njie on the left fit a manic press; Darnell King has the intelligence to hold his own on the right, albeit without the speed of someone like a Njie. Compare that pair to Reno's duo in their West-topping season. Sam Gleadle held down the left, bombing high as needed, while Brent Richards was a staid presence opposite him.
Further up, Greg Hurst has the energy and poacher-like instinct of a Foster Langsdorf, if you gave Langsdorf four extra inches of height. Out wide, Marcus Epps previously excelled in a rambunctious San Antonio press, and I'm interested in Santi Moar as a less fierce, more cerebral version of Corey Hertzog. Meanwhile, the Kevon Lambert-Irakoze Donasiyano-Aodhan Quinn trio gives you options in approximating the box-to-box Sergio Rivas-Kevin Partida combo. When Luis Seijas and Arturo Rodriguez are firing, they can serve in the middle or be narrow-winger types a la Tucker Bone .
Clearly, I'm sold on the fit in terms of tactics and talent. If Russell isn't open to a move or Rising's front office wants to stay cheaper or closer to home, I'd see if Blair Gavin is willing to come back to Phoenix. Gavin was an assistant under Schantz from 2018 to 2020, at which point he left for a similar role with the Columbus Crew in MLS. Still, he's a Scottsdale native, and he has ample experience running the system I think Phoenix should return to. Maybe he wants to keep up the good fight in the first tier, but he's one to watch as a tertiary option.
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