Welcome in to the last Three Things column of the offseason! Thanks to y'all for reading every week as I break down a few key news pieces. It's been fun for me to stay abreast of the big developments these last through months.
Of course, I'm not done covering the league. I'll be back to my longform, team-by-team breakdowns over at Backheeled! Things will kick off this Monday with offseason grades for each club in the USL Championship. It's about $5 a month to subscribe and read my 3,00ish words of content every week, and you get the best MLS, USMNT, USWNT, and NWSL coverage in existence to boot. In any event, let's get to the USL bits that caught my eye...
Number One: Ronaldo Damus and value beyond goalscoring
Per the 2 Balls and a Mic crew - look for a, uh, tactical guest there soon - star forward Ronaldo Damus has joined the San Diego Loyal on loan for the 2023 season. Damus is best known as the 2021 USL Playoff MVP that dragged Orange County SC to the league title with four goals in four postseason matches. He spent 2022 with Sweden's GIF Sundsvall, pairing with once-and-future teammate Joe Corona.
Between Orange County and Sundsvall, Damus scored 23 goals in about 4,200 minutes of play. He converted chances at an 18.8% clip in that time. By comparison, Thomas Amang sat at 16% last year, and Kyle Vassell was up at 21%. The Haitian is a very good finisher, but he isn't great.
Still, Damus was so spectacular in Orange County because of everything he did beyond goalscoring. The striker isn't a spectacular passer or particularly skilled dribbler, but his tenacious pressing, physical hold-up play, and crafty movement set him apart. He's a perfect player to fill in for both Amang and Vassell as they leave San Diego.
Much of the tactical growth for the Loyal last season came via Vassell. This team was entirely ground-based in terms of their passing in 2021. Part of that was intentional, but the club also lacked for attackers that fit a direct, dump-and-chase system. 2022 saw Vassell provide a bowling ball-esque presence in that vein, allowing for a bit more variation.
As seen above, Damus is more than capable of holding up the ball in the same vein as the 6'0", 170-pound Englishman he's succeeding. Watch how Damus backs up the defender and uses his hips to gain leverage. When the ball takes an advancing bounce, he's lightning quick at turning on a dime and rounding that same defender; the Haitian's speed is a real asset that differentiates him from Vassell.
After controlling the ball, Damus recognizes a one-on-three deficit and slows the tempo. When no teammates appear, he cuts toward the middle of the pitch with a no-nonsense touch and draws a foul. This is a premier example of the striker's ability to turn a nothing situation into a dangerous chance for his side.
Damus excels as a presser and capable runner in transition as well. In terms of the latter skill, you'll see Damus execute a similar box-out-then-turn move, but he's joined by a fleet of teammates in the clip above. One clean pass later, and the '21 Playoff MVP has created a shot
In the second case, the new Loyal forward makes his presence subtly felt with back pressure. When that step from Damus forces a sloppy header, the Haitian immediately streaks into the heart of the opposition to create danger. The angle of his run attracts three defenders and opens space for a teammate, culminating in Damus winning yet another foul when he finally receives a pass. It's heady soccer from him at every step of the play.
These are small cases, but they show why Damus is such an enticing fit in Southern California. He's strong and intelligent enough to operate in the final third when Nate Miller's Loyal are dominating possession. His finishing more than meets those situations as well. Still, Damus' ability to further San Diego's stylistic evolution could be his most important contribution.
Number Two: How Orange County has evolved in attack by revamping their defense
From high hopes at the outset of their title defense to a last-place finish at season's end, no USL team had a more disappointing 2022 than Orange County SC by my reckoning. The club earned 34 points in 34 games, down from 52 points in two less matches a year prior. After Richard Chaplow took over in 2021, the club earned 2.00 points per game; that rate was cut in half last year.
Even while signing Milan Iloski (22 goals) and Cubo Torres (nine goals), the side cratered from third-best to second-worst in the West in terms of goals conceded. Their goalscoring actually improved despite losing Ronaldo Damus - see above for what he provided - in attack and Eric Calvillo in the midfield.
Injuries, and decline contrived to doom OCSC in the back. Rob Kiernan, who rated in the 87th percentile for Goals Above Replacement in 2021, missed the entirety of 2022 with injury. 36-year-old Michael Orozco, lacking a consistent partner and showing his age, declined to a 46th percentile aerial win rate and 56th tackle win rate versus 61st and 71st percentile numbers there in the title-winning campaign. I've hammered this point for months now, but Patrick Rakovsky was also shambolic. No goalkeeper had a lower Goals Saved Above Replacement. He cost the team something like a dozen goals in 27 matches.
Why are things looking up next season? Internally, Chaplow turned to goalkeeper Colin Shutler to end 2022 ahead of Rakovsky, and Shutler's numbers were much closer to par. He'll benefit from a full offseason of preparation as the first-choice netminder. Additionally, Kiernan ought to be back and raring to go. He's 32 years old but more dependent on strength than pace.
I'm high on the new signings for a multitude of reasons. Owen Lambe, an intelligent fullback or holder, signifies a real shift in approach, as does ball-ready center back Andrew Fox. Both are efficient and effective defenders that rated in the top quarter of the USL for volume of defensive actions and various challenge win rates. They're veteran players that formed the core of their respective defenses last season.
Still, I'm bullish because of their offensive effects. Last year, Orange County held 48% of possession on average and boasted the seventh-highest share of long passes. This was a team that punted long into Milan Iloski and hoped for the best.
Though per-game goalscoring was marginally up, the direct style compromised a slower, older OCSC team in transition. Long balls and regular changes in control don't allow you to set up in a coherent shape; spells of possession allow for order and organization. Fox, a 98th percentile passer by volume, can oversee a more patient, ball-dominant system. Ditto Lambe, an 82nd percentile passer with sharp technique and a soft touch.
Slow the game down, concede less chances in sloppy transition phases, and improve your talent across the back line and in net: it's a recipe for improvement. As we near the start of the season, I see Orange County making the playoffs in a tight race. If they pull it off, it'll stem from these improvements in the back.
Number Three: Month-by-month schedule analysis for 2023
Looking way ahead in the USL calendar, who got the short end of the stick in terms of scheduling? My Offseason Tracker - still updated with every signing! - has a schedule page that rates every match on its difficulty. These ratings derive from three factors:
Opponent strength
Rest days
Match location
Together, a team's opponent is assigned a percent chance of getting a win or a draw in a given match.
Pile up all of those games across a 34-match slate, and you can start to see some trends emerge. Below, I've ranked each club's month-by-month schedules based around the average difficulty percentile of their slate. Conferences are divided here, and I should note that March and October are exceptional. Most teams have only two or three dates in those periods, leading to more extreme percentiles.
That out of the way, what stands out?
I'm taking note of Memphis' somewhat light start. They don't have a month that's above average for difficulty until July. Their schedule isn't laden with cupcakes - no one's is in this league in 2023 - but provides a great runway to feel things out to start the Stephen Glass regime. It's a gift for a new coach.
Detroit's May stretch is the hardest full month on the Eastern calebdar. Though three of their four games are at Keyworth Stadium, Le Rouge hosts an underrated Tulsa team before travelling to Eastern titans Tampa Bay. They end the month hosting San Antonio and Birmingham. That's at least three playoff teams, two of which reached the 2022 Conference Finals and one that, well, won the damn title!
It's not like April is much better for Trevor James; Detroit travels to Louisville, Miami, and Sacramento in the cruelest month. Still, the club's August is the easiest of any in the division. They only play three times - ample rest! - and get to play Las Vegas.
Elsewhere, Indy's tough finish could impact the playoff hunt, as could a soft September for Charleston and a hard one for Hartford. All three teams seem like they'll be around the bubble. Interesting times in a stacked, high-parity league.
The West is weird for one big reason: Las Vegas. They're the worst team in my prediction model by more than a dozen points. All of the easiest periods here involve a match or two against the Lights. Nothing much I can do about it.
Even so, two very easy months stretches stand out. Monterey's May-to-July run involves a game against Sacramento, but none of their other opponents sit above 60% playoff odds by my reckoning. The next-hardest game is...away to Charleston? Maybe, but Frank Yallop's side enters the fixture on 14 days of rest. Three days off between a short trip to California's capital and a Cardinale conflagration with Miami makes that a more difficult matchup.
The next run that stands out is Phoenix's end to the year. Rising start the year in a bit of a harder manner, but you fancy Juan Guerra to carry the club into the playoffs and maybe even a home game if they hold steady until August. From that point on, kicking off with a home game against Las Vegas, Phoenix's hardest matches are home affairs against Sacramento and Indy.
Meanwhile, an iffy Colorado Springs team ends the year on a pretty tough run; they get San Antonio and Louisville back-to-back in September. Sacramento's June is crazy: they're away to Tampa Bay, away to San Diego, host Monterey four days later, then get San Antonio. You could argue that's three of the USL's best four clubs with wonky rest and travel in the mix.
I haven't hit everything, but use the graphic as a jumping-off point to explore your chosen team's hardest or most interesting runs.
Standings Projections
Here's the latest from my prediction model. Changes to the minutes and rotations led to a bit of movement at the bottom of the East, and things are still crazy tight there. Elsewhere, Louisville climbed a half-step thanks to some additions in the back, one of whom hasn't been announced quite yet.
In the West, I'm already including Damus for San Diego. Sue me. The effect of signing him and losing Thomas Amang is about six points to the positive, give or take. Do I think Damus is that much better a player? No. Does my model freaking adore the Haitian forward? Evidently. Turning to the bottom of the table, Las Vegas is still bad despite adding a big list of new names, and Neveal Hackshaw didn't do much to boost Oakland after a meh year for him in Indy.
Watch out for updates to this table and a long-delayed League One projection to boot in the coming weeks. It's almost opening day! Put-up-or-shut-up time for my model. Until then, one more reminder to check out my work on Backheeled. I'm so excited to get back to it.
Comments