We're a month-and-a-half or so away from kickoff, but the gap feels immense right now. I'm filling my time with binges of Colin Farrell movies and old USL footage as I make highlight reels for signings, but it's officially impatience season. In any event, let's get down to business.
Number One: How will Phoenix Rising's unique roster build turn out on the pitch?
Say what you will about 2022 for Phoenix, but, after his midseason hiring, Juan Guerra hit on a successful formula in the final weeks of the season. Rising scored 14 goals in their final five matches, a run that earned them 10 points of a possible 15. Project that rate over a full season, and you're looking at the fifth seed in the West.
Then came the offseason. Rather than double down on Rick Schantz's core running Guerra's tactics, the club pursued a wholesale rebuild. Phoenix has retained just 26% of their minutes played from last year; only Loudoun and Las Vegas boast lower ratios. The results to date are as follows:
In every sense of the word, this was an overhaul, and Phoenix deserves credit for their proactivity. Aodhan Quinn and Santi Moar, two all-league-caliber players, were flipped for transfer fees; ditto Greg Hurst. Joey Farrell and Ben Lundt were likewise sold at cost. The less crucial pieces - think Arturo Rodriguez or James Musa - were allowed to walk.
On one hand, losing players like Quinn (95th percentile Goals Above Replacement) and Moar (94th percentile GAR) seems painful. However, both stars are near the age of 30, and at least one - from what I've heard from mulitiple sources - was highly frustrated in the changing room last season. Lundt is a big loss that we'll touch on later, but an MLS fee was hard to turn down, and you can't deny a servant of the club the chance to move up.
Elsewhere in defense, I'm positively chuffed at the choices. Darnell King (89th percentile GAR) showed tremendous potential in multiple spots in the Guerra defense. He was rightly retained. Musa, meanwhile, was a disaster all season long, and Farrell, while better, didn't have his best year. Farrell doesn't fit Guerra's more demanding defensive system; better to get a fee while you still can.
Late-season pickup Gabriel Torres, a revelation as a winger or wingback with two-way viability, stayed in the Valley, joined by league-best destroyer Kevon Lambert and mercurial left-wingback Babo Njie. Still, an effective four-man core required supplementation, and Guerra didn't hesitate to bring in fascinating pieces.
Before we hit on the additions, it would be useful to examine the system they're joining. I'm working under the framework that Guerra will continue with his basic 3-4-3 system. Variation will, of course, occur. I anticipate a narrower front three with two truer strikers and a creative false no. 9 or no. 10, for instance.
Still, the basics will hold. What of his defensive philosophy? Often, there's little distinction between a "back three" and "back five," but Guerra ran a true back three in 2022. His wingbacks are forward-thinking. Upfield, his forwards tend narrow and are moderately aggressive in the press; the main thrust in that sense comes via the two-man central pivot.
The graphic illustrates a few more tenets. The three centerbacks play a high line to compress the field when the opponent is building out, but they deepen in block. Those aforementioned wingbacks don't drop into a "five" in most cases, and they're often encouraged to pinch narrow (see #1) to clog the center of the pitch to support a lone destroyer (#2). After turnovers, quick buildout into a ball-carrier or hold-up forward (#3) is crucial.
Offensively, goal kicks are varied to begin build-up. Oakland and Phoenix both had physical forwards to play into last year, and that pattern holds in 2023 for Rising. When a Guerra side advances into the opposing half, the wingbacks become proxy wingers (#2), and one central midfielder drops low (#3); this creates a front four or five in which the true forwards can interchange at will (#1) and drag opposing defenders out.
How, then, do the new faces fit within that framework? You'll see Frederico Varela, Erickson Gallardo, and Renzo Zambrano highlighted in the clips. Do check them out, Rising fans; you'll like what you see. Take Varela, shown with CSKA Sofia. He broke out with FC Porto B, earned a single La Liga match with Leganes, and displayed ample technique along the way. Most comfortable distributing on his left foot, he can sit between the lines and drive offense in the final third.
Gallardo, a wide man with a long tenure at Zamora FC in Venezuela, put up numbers in two stints in the Primera Division, racking up nearly 150 appearances and numerous games in the Copa Libertadores. He's a bit more two-footed, and he's the only true winger on this roster. His utilization will be fascinating; I see wingback minutes and forward experimentation in his future.
Between Zamora stints, Gallardo played with Toronto FC and Toronto FC II to middling results; fellow MLS and USL veteran Renzo Zambrano fared better in those leaues. While in the Portland system, Zambrano shone and even captained some matches as a ball-carrying no. 8. His control in tight spaces is strong, his skill was ample enough to earn set-piece duties, and he seems a perfect fit alongside Kevon Lambert's no. 6 mastery.
Who else stands out amongst the new faces? Eddie Munjoma is a very athletic fullback with unassailable North Texas SC/FC Dallas pedigree; I don't fancy him over Njie or Torres as a starter, but he'll earn minutes. Daniel Krutzen, a left-sided fullback or mobile center-half, was a stalwart for Canada's Forge FC who trialed with the Vancouver Whitecaps this offseason. He might be the best player in this group from what I've heard across the league.
The USL recruits in the outfield all make sense, and Danny Trejo is chief among them. He put up a goal contribution every other game in 2021 and blew up in 2022, arising as the premier transition creator in the USL. No player at this level is as mazy and unstoppable on the dribble; Trejo can carry the ball the length of the pitch. In that sense, he's a one-man counterattack. His shooting range in the final third likewise demands attention. Trejo could improve as a passer in those crowded areas, but he won't be tasked with that burden next to Varela et al.
Two other players - industrious, versatile midfielder Jose Hernandez and slick wide centerback Alejandro Fuenmayor - are Roots imports. Frankly, neither blows me away, but they're solid squad pieces that can eat 20 matches with competence. Manuel Arteaga, a former Zamora man who never overlapped with Gallardo, generated 20 goal contributions in rather bad Indy Eleven teams over the past two campaigns, and he's the only legitimate striker in the Valley. I adore his hold-up play and clever linking.
I've been glowing so far, but there are areas of concern. Goalkeeper is chief among my worries. Ben Lundt, playing behind a mistake-prone defense, rated well above average by most goalkeeping metrics, and Phoenix would've been even more putrid in their own box without him. Rocco Rios Novo and Patrick Rakovsky, meanwhile, were two of the dozen worst goalies in the USL in 2022 by Goals Saved Above Average.
Rakovsky, hero of Orange County's title run, is better than that. Across the whole of 2021, he hovered around the 80th percentile by most goalkeeping metrics. What's real for the 29-year-old? Rios Novo, by comparison, played behind a lamentable Atlanta United 2 team and showed nice range on his line; his numbers suffer from a tiny sample size. His upside comes from wonderfully skillful passing, which could add an interesting wrinkly if the Argentinian beats Rakovsky for the starting job.
What of the defense? The Krutzen signing has tempered most of my complaints about the depth in the middle, but I still don't have full trust in a Krutzen-Fuenmayor-King or Krutzen-Stenberg-Fuenmayor back three. It would be hard to be sloppier than last year's patchwork group, but that doesn't make the new unit a nailed-on success.
Still, as shown later, Phoenix Rising is projected to earn about 49 points this year. That total correlates to a roughly 80% chance of playoff qualification, and it has the team a full eight points above the cut. In my subjective estimation, 45ish points and a playoff berth are the floor for Phoenix.
Guerra has a vision, and he's clearly added players with the ability to see it out. If the new faces live up to their resumes, Rising could be a real threat come October and November. If not, the Trejo show is still enough to stay alive for the eight seed, and that's better than 2022's mess no matter how you slice it.
Number Two: Analyzing the value added by college soccer signees
This week, the Birmingham Legion inked Gabriel Alves, a Brazilian-born left back fresh out of Marshall University. Fans of college sports might assume Marshall to be an also-ran, but that isn't so in the soccer world. Indeed, Marshall is a veritable powerhouse that perennially reaches the NCAA tournament and took home the national title in 2020. Their 2021 side put all 11 starters into the pro ranks!
Alves was key to that title effort and Marshall's culture of success, and he eventually captained the Thundering Herd later in his college career. Across 52 games - 51 of which were starts - the perennial all-leaguer stood out for his prowess in all facets of the sport.
His technique is strong, and he regularly pinched narrow from his fullback deployment towards the central midfield to create overloads. There, Alves' poise under duress and keen eye for passing lanes took center stage. Marshall's #16 knew when to widen out to stretch opponents and find crossing opportunities, but he had a sense for deeper involvement in build-out. His maturity and intelligence will pay off for a Legion team deeply in need of a starting-caliber fullback. Might Jake Rufe invert to the right to accommodate him?
In any event, Alves is part of a trend. Across the USL Championship, players signed straight from college soccer have proven to be high-end assets. Bob Lilley's Pittsburgh Riverhounds are the obvious example, relying on six such additions as semi-regular rotation players in 2022. Arturo Ordonez, a star centerback, and Jahmali Waite, who claimed the starting goalkeeper spot at midseason, are prime examples. Most of the sestet are back as the spine of the Riverhounds for next season.
Elsewhere, Adrian Rebollar's intensity in the press and skill in transition as a no. 10 and second striker with Monterey Bay helped drive their playoff push. Carson Vom Steeg was impressive enough in Loudoun's defense to earn a multi-year deal with Memphis 901 this offseason. Tristan Trager banged home eight goals fresh out of Air Force and earned a similar multi-year deal with Charleston. I could go on, but these players are all instant contributors.
Signing college prospects is dually beneficial if you're a USL side. Graduates demand lower salaries than seasoned veterans and known quantities within the league. With little to fall back on besides collegiate track records, they lack bargaining power.
At the same time, these players are more effective than other non-Championship signings. Indeed, college players are superior to non-Championship additions by a statistically significant percentage according to my Goals Above Replacement metric. College players still come in below average, and USL veterans are the surest bet by a 25% margin, but the upside of a proven NCAA star ought to hold a greater appeal. By the way, stop it with the stilted MLS loans...please.
This offseason, FC Tulsa and the Legion have tapped into the Marshall pipeline, but I'd like to see more such moves across the board. We'll see names continue to pour in as MLS camps end and more players become formally available, and I'd expect to see some real difference makers ink deals.
Number Three: What's shakin' in Oakland, Edinburg, and Las Vegas?
My model isn't in love with the Oakland Roots, Rio Grande Valley FC, or the Las Vegas Lights, but all three made interesting moves this week. Within the trio, the Toros are the fullest-formed and likeliest to make the top-eight cut in the West, but Oakland and Las Vegas both seem likely to be active in the late transfer market.
We'll start in the East Bay, where Noah Delgado and company poached two US U-19 internationals from the San Jose Earthquakes. The first, Ethan Kohler, made double-digit appearances in MLS NEXT Pro last year as a defensive midfielder. Kohler had previously committed to Stanford to play college soccer; that school produced current USL players like Hunter Gorskie and Drew Skundrich alongside US stalwart Jordan Morris. The second addition, Drew Murray, was an all-star in the same league as a center half.
Murray comes in as the fourth-choice centerback, but Kohler has the ability to earn minutes in a rather open defensive midfield, competing with defensive-minded Joseph Nane and Napo Matsoso but few other proven quantities. Both have much more upside in the long term, however. Signing youth internationals has become a consistent strategy for USL clubs - think Fidel Barajas in Charleston - that'll pay dividends down the road. Oakland still needs more steel in their squad, but this is a great pair long-term moves.
If the action in Oakland skews long-term, the Toros are adding pieces that can help out immediately. Their roster is now 18 strong, and their playoff core has been supplemented with a few plus pieces. Some, like centerback Eric Kinzner and midfielder Ian Cerro, seem like rotation types. Kinzner has been a fine option over the years with Tucson and Tacoma, and he's one to watch at just 19 years of age. Cerro, meanwhile, is a NISA import in the attacking midfield, and he's the obvious pick to spell Ricky Ruiz in busier stretches.
What about the more proven signings? Juan Galindrez of the Chattanooga Red Wolves is a bang-up forward who could start in a hypothetical 4-4-2 as he moseys on down to Texas. Galindrez is 29 years old and didn't play every game in Tennessee, but he has a good nose for goal and converted chances at a 97th percentile clip. Paired with the unselfish hold-up of Frank Lopez and ahead of Christian Pinzon's midfield scoring, he'll get looks.
Michael Knapp is my favorite upside pick-up of the bunch. A veteran of New York Red Bulls II with more than 40 appearances, Knapp ranked in the 80th percentile for defensive actions and the 83rd for forward passing. He's responsible at sweeping up trouble in the central midfield, and he knows how to make runs that carve spaces open.
29-year-old Venezuelan left back Gabriel Benitez seems a cut above most typical signings from this club, though I can't say much about his game. On the other hand, I can speak highly of yet another 29-year-old: Christiano Francois. The former El Paso and Miami man is quick on the right wing and very crisp as a dribbler. He's one year removed from a 17 goal-and-assist year on South Beach, and he can provide Pinzon-esque spark on the opposite side.
The signings are a mix of proven talents and solid upstarts. You hope that the former camp isn't past it; Francois in particular suffered from a bit of age-based regression with the Locomotive. Still, this is Wilmer Cabrera's deepest opening day squad yet.
Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't take my first opportunity to praise the Lights this winter. I broke down their first batch of signings on Twitter, but let's get the CliffsNotes:
Pato Botello is a bona fide starting no. 9 in the USL. He got eight goals in Detroit and provides more mobility and hold-up spark than he gets credit for.
Issa Rayyan, a right-sided wingback, and Azriel Gonzalez, a left winger, are two Tacoma Defiance products that can press well and bring you some pace.
Justin Ingram is one of my personal pet favorites after his rookie year in Indy in 2022. His passing is clean and often line-breaking, and he can step into a fullback job in a pinch. There's a legit starter in him.
Zach Carroll is captain material as a centerback. A bit injury-prone and maybe a shade slow at this point, he's a veteran of the league and a capable set piece threat. He'll be busy, but he can handle that onus.
Everyone else is fairly young and unproven, but that's probably unsurprising from the Lights as they enter the post-LAFC-affiliation era. If their prerogative this year is taking a few fliers on young'uns with a vet or two providing stability, that's not the worst thing in the world. Do they probably need more consistent investment in the near future? Yeah. Will they be the embarrassment on the pitch that we feared? Not quite.
(Yes, Andrew Carleton happened too. He's skillful if more than a tad controversial. I made my insurrection puns already, and, uh, I kinda really like the fit with him between Ingram and Botello.)
Standings Projections
Here's the latest from my model for the second tier. The aforementioned Toros climbed back into the playoff field in the West, Phoenix solidified themselves a shade, and Sacramento stayed solid on the back of an interesting South American addition. I've wanted extra spark in their pivot, and Arnold Lopez might bring it.
If there's one thing I hate in my model, it's the wildly low regard for Miami. This team made the postseason relatively comfortable last year in Anthony Pulis' first year with a lot of new talent, and their additions for 2023 are all rather good. Losing Connor Sparrow to Tampa Bay hurts, but they might be the fourth-best team in the conference subjectively.
It's been a minute since my last drop of League One predictions, so I've included that too. The big news this week was Omaha's retention of Conor Doyle, Devin Boyce's move to Greenville, and the signing of Don Smart - my mom's favorite soccer player - by Lexington.
More broadly, we should be paying attention to North Carolina FC. They've added three all-leaguers this offseason, and I was going to write about their moves before Alex Ashton at the wonderful, essential League One Updater site beat me to the punch. Read his take on NCFC's potential lineups to understand why they can go from worst to first.