The last gasps of the World Cup come this weekend, and the USL offseason has kicked into overdrive since the United States crashed out in the Round of 16. El Paso finally got a manager, every team but Las Vegas has at least one signing on the books, and certain corners of the lower-league internet got mad at my way-too-early standings projections. With that said, let's dig in to the usual analysis of this week's big stories...
Number One: Quantifying the potential of Tyler Pasher with the Legion
When Birmingham announced the addition of Tyler Pasher this Monday, I immediately went out on a limb and called it the biggest signing we'll see this offseason. It's hard to overstate how spectacular the Canadian attacker was with Indy Eleven in 2020. You can see his elite-level expected goals and expected production above; he generated about 0.8 expected contributions per 90.
Pasher has a true gift for shot generation. His searing pace and clever dribbling on the counter led to ample chances at goal while playing under Martin Rennie. Though, the Scotsman was a negative, bunkering type, Pasher stood out.
Only seven players have beaten Pasher's 4.2 shots attempted per 90 minutes since his rapturous 2020 season. Even while posting that gaudy total, the ex-Eleven starstill produced an above-average conversion rate.
I won't claim knowledge of Pasher's time in Houston, but his MLS numbers were strong. Over the last year, the attacker ranked in the 78th percentile for expected goals and 70th for shot attempts in MLS, albeit in a small sample. His expected assists fell to the fifth percentile and his successful dribbles to the 30th, but the instinct for positioning still made Pasher dangerous.
How will the Canadian fit with the Legion? His style can transform an idiosyncratic system. Tommy Soehn's enigmatic team ranked 17th for possession share and 16th for their long pass rate out of 27 total squads. There often didn't seem to be a clear philosophy in attack; everything was down the statistical middle.
Individual player tendencies defined the side more than coaching. Enzo Martinez's free movement as a nominal forward constantly opened space for teammates. Jonny Dean's aggressive overlapping on the right side did much the same; those two were the engines for Birmingham.
The Legion also showed a penchant for long-range shots. They ranked second for overall shot volume, but fourth for shots on target and sixth for goals scored. Juan Agudelo, the truest no. 9 in the team, ranked in the 57th percentile for shot attempts, but wingers Prosper Kasim and Marlon both sat around the 90th percentile. Some of that duo's chances came close to the net, but many came from range.
Still, if you think about Birmingham's best shots, full-field breaks through Marlon and Dean and quick moves off of press-induced turnovers come to mind. Pasher can help with incision in settled final-third possession, but his main value is in creating these transitional situations.
Though he ranks modestly for defensive actions, Pasher is a terror in the press. His staggering pace lets him to excel off the ball. He's a pest bugging the opposition, and that aspect of his game will be a boon for Soehn's aggressive 4-2-4 defensive look. Again, Birmingham excelled when they pressed aggressively.
Further, the new addition is a one-man counter that can fill the shoes of Marlon - likely bound for Israel - and then some. You'll see a minute or so of examples in the clip above. Vanishingly few USL players pull off any of the clipped plays with any regularity; Pasher did all of that in a four-game run.
My standings model pushes Birmingham to #1 in the Eastern Conference with Pasher in and much of the core retained. While that projection is optimistic, Pasher truly takes the team to another level. There are questions as to whether the Canadian will operate as an aggressive winger or wandering forward, but his impact will doubtless be felt in 2023.
Number Two: A Tampa Bay reunion in the Circle City; how do the new forwards fit in the Lowry system?
If Pasher's move to Alabama is the biggest signing out there, Sebastian Guenzatti ending his long run with Tampa Bay to join Indy Eleven is close behind. Guenzatti had a down year in 2022 with just five goals, but he led the USL in total goals from 2019 through 2021. The Uruguayan even ended the season hot with four goals in the Rowdies' final six games.
With Cam Lindley and Solomon Asante feeding him, Guenzatti won't lack for chances. That said, Indy Eleven came 22nd in goals scored and 17th for goals allowed in Mark Lowry's debut season. While the striker is important for the team's offense, he also projects to have a deep impact on the Eleven's defensive system.
Above, you'll see Guenzatti at the tip of a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 diamond shape alongside Juan Tejada while in central Florida. Of course, Tejada was acquired in a trade at midseason by Indy in 2022, and he will return for the upcoming year. Both forwards shift and shimmy with a great sense of chemistry off the ball to deny opposing progression.
Compare what you've seen of Guenzatti and Tejada in Tampa Bay with Lowry's peak Locomotive side. The gaffer tried to institute such a look at times in the Hoosier State, but he lacked the personnel. That system was down pat in Texas. Lowry's diamond works as a proxy 4-3-3 in the press, and the end result was 90th percentile goal allowances and 93rd percentile shots on target conceded.
Defense is a full-team activity, and it's underrated how forwards contribute to an effective system. By denying passing lanes through the positioning of your attackers, you force foes to abandon their patterns or attempt low-percentage long balls.
I fully expect Indy to become a much stronger defensive team next year. Beyond the impact of the new forward line, the side has added some high-caliber pieces at back. Gustavo Rissi, a central defender who rated in the 90th percentile for Goals Above Replacement with the Austin Bold in 2021, brings all-league quality. Yannik Oettl, the presumptive netminder, helped solidify Hartford Athletic at the end of last year and rated in the 86th percentile for Goals Saved Above Average per 90 minutes. These spots were revolving doors last year, but they've been filled with aplomb. Guenzatti is the big name, but this looks to be an impressive retool across the board.
Number Three: Orange County and Tampa Bay move towards tactical tweaks
One of the more entertaining and frustrating games to play in the offseason is reading the tea leaves provided by new signings and prognosticating what they mean for team identities. It's an inexact science, but both Orange County SC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies hinted at stylistic evolution with their moves this week.
Andrew Fox's move from El Paso to Southern California was a clear statement of intent in that vein. Orange County went long through their goalkeeper, centerbacks, and fullbacks on more than 26% of pass attempts last year, eighth-highset in a 27-team league. Meanwhile, Fox rated in the 92nd percentile for overall pass volume and tended shorter. His 21% long pass share would've placed bottom-five at a team level.
Though Richard Chaplow's title-defending side possessed the ball at a 48% average, their offense lacked control. Few players shepherded build up the middle, leading to too many direct balls played with fingers crossed. Milan Iloski feasted amidst second-ball chaos, but he'll be better receiving the ball in more comfortable situations. Fox facilitates that identity change.
Fox, of course, is also a solid defender. He plugged holes across the Locomotive back line over the years and is comfortable as a fullback in a pinch. Last year, he was rarely the issue in a mistake-prone defense. With Rob Kiernan fully back, Dillon Powers inked as the no. 6, and net-minder Colin Shutler (40th percentile goals against) replacing Patrick Rakovsky (dead last in Goals Saved Above Average), this team is going to be more solid and more offensively able.
Orange County bested Tampa Bay in the 2021 USL Cup Final, but their fates diverged in 2022. The champs placed last in the Western Conference, whereas the runner-up Rowdies fell in the Eastern Conference Finals after a strong campaign. Nevertheless, this looks like an offseason of change for Neill Collins' side.
I hit on the exit of Sebastian Guenzatti above, but that and the end of Jake LaCava's loan means that the league's best attack is due for a shift. The Rowdies, powered by those two and Leo Fernandes, ranked first in goals scored and topped my expected goals table to boot. Still, the wonky 4-2-3-1 that placed fourth in the USL for crosses won't continue in that manner.
Above, I've mapped a prospective look for Tampa Bay, featuring new additions Zachary Herivaux and Charlie Dennis. I discussed Herivaux's talents as a defensive midfielder elsewhere, and I like how he liberates Nicky Law and Lewis Hilton as creators. Law had six assists last year and put up 67th percentile expected assists; Hilton, too, had six assists but with an 89th percentile underlying expectation.
Dennis is a different beast. Law is somewhat mobile, but he and Hilton are at their best when they're pulling the strings. The former Oakland Roots and FC Tucson man played as an inside forward or attacking-minded no. 8 under Juan Guerra and Noah Delgado last year, and he excels carrying the ball with power and precision. He's an active trouble-maker as compared to those more patient intervenors.
Compared to other USL Championship midfielders, Dennis rated in the 80th percentile for expected goals and the 95th for expected assists in the East Bay. He also drew fouls at a 92nd percentile rate. He doesn't provide the width of LaCava, a 67th percentile crosser by volume, but he can approximate the late runs that powered LaCava to a 12-goal season.
Tampa Bay still has work to do, but their diversely talented central midfielder hints at a narrow 4-3-3 or diamond-shaped 4-4-2 for next season. That formation would allow Dayonn Harris or Jake Areman to bomb up the flanks with ample space, providing a new style for a formerly cross-happy team. Given the technical ability of every member of this side and the lack of target forwards, the roster choices feel astute.
There's no guarantee that Orange County or Tampa Bay actually adopts a new style, but the idea is tantalizing in each case. They call this time of year "silly season" for a reason. It's fun to imagine what new faces mean for your team and to envision a future with a more entertaining tactical style. Andrew Fox and Charlie Dennis have the skill to produce those very outcomes.
Projected Standings
Henceforth, I'll include a weekly update to my point projection model at the end of this piece. We're still early in the offseason, but I wanted to make a few comments on top of attaching the table.
The basic model takes last year's performance based on my Goals Above Replacement system and adjusts every player's performance based on a calculated aging curve. 2022 results are slightly normalized via performance data from three previous seasons, leading to a definitive per-minute expectation for every rostered player.
Since last year, I added an extra variable for non-USL signings. Age and projected minutes are the key factors, but the source of the signing now figures in. MLS loanees have performed worse than NCAA signings historically; the small CPL sample exceeds various additions from the Caribbean. Previous league matters.
We're deeply in flux in terms of roster construction right now, and every un-announced player is awkwardly sitting on their 2022 minute projection at the moment. Don't buy too deeply into the numbers at this point. My Week One table last year pegged 11 out of 14 playoff teams, but we aren't close to that point. Enjoy either way.
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