If you haven't checked it out already, give my 2023 USL Preview a gander. I've written up every team and included a standings prediction. Unless you live in the Motor City and can't handle a single dissenting take, it's an informative read!
On The USL Show, I sat down with Connor Maloney of San Antonio FC to talk about his career, the club's title defense, and a few other topics. Give it a listen, Connor was lovely and insightful. Top dude.
One last plug for Backheeled! Joe Lowery and the team put out a great podcast about all things Jesse Marsch on Monday. Do note that my writing will be behind the paywall starting in late February; subscribe for about $5 a month to get team-by-team analysis and rankings for every USL team every single week. You'd be supporting one of the only outlets covering all things American soccer in the process.
Number One: Offensive movement and the Santi Moar effect in New Mexico
In Zach Prince's first year at the helm in Albuquerque, his New Mexico side comfortably qualified for the postseason, edging eighth-placed El Paso at the cut line by five points and a +5 goal-difference margin. United improved their point total and goalscoring year over year, but the side lacked a real sense of impetus for much of the campaign. Indeed, they came 22nd out of 27 teams for expected goals.
Heading into the offseason, change was needed to give this team a higher upside. A long list of talented defenders returned, but the attacking corps underwent marked changes. Out went Neco Brett, Preston Tabortetaka, Jerome Kiesewetter, Kevaughn Frater, Romario Williams, and Devon Sandoval - all veteran USL forwards. Still, none of those players generated more than six expected goals in the whole of 2022, and all of them barring Brett rated well below-average by Goals Above Replacement.
In many ways, the offense was sunk by a lack of dynamic motion driven by those powerful but traditional forwards. Someone like a Romario Williams was good for three or four shots a game, but he did so while sitting between the centerbacks and doing little else.
The examples here are illustrative of New Mexico's attacking problems. At left, you'll see the 4-2-3-1 shape weaponized in the attacking third. The two wide midfielders have advanced up, and the no. 10 sits high in the center of the pitch.
Instead of presenting danger, the look represents stasis. The striker is doing nothing to drag defenders out, and the attacking midfielders are stuck in their vertical lanes within a limited region of the pitch. No one is making a diagonal, crisscrossing run.
Ditto on the right, albeit with some variation. In this case, the two wingers have pinched inward, but they still maintain easily-marked positions. In both cases, the lack of invention allows the opposition to maintain their defensive shape without a challenge. The final third is clogged up and devoid of passing lanes because New Mexico isn't moving.
You can fault the personnel to an extent, but Prince deserves some amount of blame for United's doldrums. The rookie manager often used converted centerbacks - think Will Seymore or Austin Yearwood - at fullback and thus stripped the side of overlapping runs and dangerous crossers. The mix of factors built up into a general blasé mood.
What changed to make me optimistic for 2023? Two words: Santi Moar.
When Moar last played in the Land of Enchantment, the yellow-and-black hung 59 goals, 16 of which were created by the attacker. The clip above illustrates why. Above all, Moar is a mover. He knows when to leak out from a defensive block and lead a transition move. He constantly drives across vertical lanes, daring opponents to react and compromise their shape. He's just special.
The Spaniard created 34 goals in about 60 games in Phoenix, and a hugely unlucky dive in his conversion rate last year masked his continuing excellence. In each season in the Valley, Moar rated in the top 10% of USL players by my modeling.
Starting on the wing in tandem with a full season of Amando Moreno, Moar will create space aplenty for New Mexico's strikers. Greg Hurst (six goals, 13% conversion rate) joins from Phoenix Rising, much like Moar, while Josh Dolling (eight goals, 16% conversion rate) was added from MLS NEXT Pro. I'm very high on both forwards, and I think they'll be part of an offense to watch at Isotopes Park.
Number Two: Shane Wiedt, Jared Timmer, and added versatility for the Republic
You're fresh off a U.S. Open Cup final appearance, you won a home playoff game, and you're returning 13 of your 16 minutes leaders. Dealt those cards, how do you step up if you're Mark Briggs and the Sacramento Republic?
Russell Cicerone (29 goals in two years) is one clear answer in attack, but I want to focus on Sacramento's added versatility in defense. Jared Timmer and Shane Wiedt stand out as exceptional replacements for Dan Casey, a right-centerback that represents this club's one big loss. Casey played about 2,400 minutes in the back three last year, combining strong technique on the ball with inch-perfect tackling and a fearless tendency to lay his body on the line.
Timmer stands out as one replacement for Casey, but his game goes further than that. Jack Gurr quietly placed second on the team for minutes played last year and didn't have a real alternative at right wingback; Timmer can help to fill these voids and has proven so in Reno and Indy.
You'll see a brief example of Timmer overlapping as a right back for Indy eleven above, illustrating his technique and ability to play that spot with aplomb. In his multi-year spell in the Circle City, the native Michigander's minutes came as follows:
58% central defender
30% right and left back
12% defensive midfielder
Few players are as competent across the pitch, and the 25-year-old returned an 82nd percentile Goals Above Replacement rating for a reason.
Timmer can serve as an emergency Gurr replacement, back up the soon-to-be-analyzed Wiedt at right-centerback, or spell Matt LaGrassa as the holding man next to Luis Felipe or Nick Ross. He rated in the 71st percentile for forward passing and the 74th for defensive actions last season and is better than LaGrassa as a ball-mover, even if he sacrifices a shade of excellence-in-positioning in the process. Still, Timmer will be invaluable.
Wiedt may be even better, as seen in the clip below where he bombs into attack. With Pittsburgh, he played as a Casey-esque defender with the freedom to advance.
Skilled as all get-out and reared at the prestigious Akron and Pitt college programs, Wiedt appeared in 64 games for the Riverhounds in the last two seasons. He has an excellent right foot and a gazelle-like stride. Last season, he rated in the top 20% of defenders for:
Defensive actions
Clearances
Tackle win rate
Defensive actions per foul
Aerial wins
Aerial win rate
Passes per match
Forward pass share
That profile is stunning, and it illustrates his efficient defending and positive contributions in build.
For all of their qualities in the pivot, Matt LaGrassa and Luis Felipe respectively ranked 14th and 41st amongst starting central midfielders for forward passing. They're okay in possession but relied on Casey to provide burst.
Wiedt arguably improves upon that aspect of the Irishman's game, and Timmer does the same while also presenting a bona fide option in the pivot himself. Add Johnny Fenwick (22.1 matches, 73rd percentile Goals Above Replacement), and an elite defense might be even better in 2023.
Number Three: How Michael Salazar powers up the Miami attack
Even though they qualified for the playoffs in the six-seed with a 15-point edge over FC Tulsa on the cut line, Miami FC never felt exceptional in 2022. Anthony Pulis ran a rather unique system in his maiden campaign, using Aedan Stanley as a back-four left back or back-three centerman depending on the phase of play. Though the side improved late in the season when Joaquin Rivas came to town, they finished the year a pedestrian 11th in expected goal differential.
Still 11th-best in a league with 16 playoff qualifiers is more than acceptable, and Miami has had an unabashedly positive winter. Speedy Williams left, and that's a big deal given his USL tenure and Jamaican international career, but I found that he lost a step in 2022. Connor Sparrow, fresh off 89th and 93rd percentile seasons in net by Goals Replacement, marks the biggest loss.
Beyond that pair, no one of real import left, and the additions were great and provide oddles of depth. They include:
Gabriel Cabral, a no. 8 from League One's champions, South Georgia Tormenta, that rated in the 98th percentile for Goals Above Replacement and the 80th or better for expected goals and assists
Curtis Thorn, a depth fullback that started on the right for Tormenta
Moises Hernandez, a 30-year-old left back with tenure for FC Dallas and across Central America, including a Guatemalan Gold Cup run
Ryan Telfer, a former Toronto FC winger with goalscoring bona fides in MLS NEXT Pro and the Canadian Premier League in the last two seasons
That's a lot of talent, but one USL Championship pickup stands out above the rest: Michael Salazar.
An international for Belize, Salazar contributed eight goal contributions on 84th percentile Goals Above Replacement for LA Galaxy II last year. Indeed, he's averaged 0.49 goals and assists per 90 in his last three USL campaigns overall. His value as an attacker comes not from the hard numbers alone, however.
In the first clip above, watch how Salazar times his run. There's a flurry of activity on the left, and the attacker sits underneath the striker as it develops. When his side advances, Salazar streaks to the near post off of a centrally-positioned teammate to meet a cross and score. In the second clip, by contrast, Salazar holds up his run and lingers at the top of the box to provide a different angle. He's a confident finisher and passer from multiple angles and uses that capability to leave opponents on the back foot.
Salazar is effective in a vacuum, but he's such a vital addition because of his fit with Kyle Murphy. He led the line in South Beach last year and bagged 10 goals, but his 16% conversion rate was down from 20% and 24% in his prior two seasons. That mark was still top-quarter in the USL, but the decline represented Miami's faults in the final third.
Still, Murphy is an elite mover even if he isn't scoring. Above, you'll see a near-post run off a set piece that frees a goal on the far side because the defenders are so drawn to no. 9. Next, Murphy streaks near-side once again to draw eyes. He's an elite finisher in this league, but he does so much more.
When push comes to shove, however, you want Murphy as that player slamming home a goal at the far post in the first clip. Salazar can be the setup man making those unsung runs to rip open space in opposing defenses! He'll get his goals, but the former Galaxy II man is great because of the subtleties in his game.
If you can't tell, I'm rather high on what Pulis and Miami have strung together this offseason. At worst, they can run back ten-elevenths of their lineup, give or take, and never give up a sloppy goal with Bolu Akinyode and Paco Craig leading their defense. At best, Murphy, Salazar, and Rivas - empowered with a full preseason after four goals to end last season following a Tulsa-to-Miami transfer - eat up every team in their path.
My playoff odds model has Miami in 9th, regressing by about 16 points(!) in a strong East to sit on a 42% chance of reaching the postseason. That's bull. This is a good team that's closer to a home playoff game than elimination, and Salazar is just one reason why.
Standings Projections
Here's the latest from my data model. Right now, the East breaks down neatly into a few distinct tiers:
Playoff Locks (Louisville, Tampa Bay, Birmingham, Memphis)
Likely Qualifiers (Tulsa, Indy)
Bubble Teams (Detroit, Charleston, Pittsburgh, Miami, Loudoun, Hartford)
The West is somewhat more muddled, but I'd label the teams as such:
Playoff Locks (San Antonio, Sacramento, San Diego, Monterey)
Likely Qualifiers (Phoenix, New Mexico)
Bubble Teams (Orange County, Oakland, Rio Grande Valley, Colorado Springs, El Paso)
Shit (Las Vegas)
Lots of offseason yet to go, and things will continue to change throughout the preseason as I get a better sense of lineups and rotations and update minutes projections for players.
In any event, thanks for reading, and I'll see you next week.