Happy Thanksgiving, y'all! If I'm grateful for anything this year, it's the chance to ramble about the USL across platforms, start writing at Backheeled - check out our wonderful World Cup coverage where I'm breaking down the USMNT - and work with Sacramento in a really historic season. What started as a stupid Twitter account has turned into a real community for me, and I appreciate it. In any event, let's get down to the news of the holiday week.
Number One: Who fills the new holes for Danny Cruz in the middle?
Fresh off an Eastern Conference title and a hard-fought championship game, Louisville City quickly announced their first batch of roster decisions. The lack of news as to Sean Totsch's status stood out, but my eye was drawn to the names that did and didn't appear in the midfield.
The young'uns - Elijah Wynder and Carlos Moguel - returned as expected, but big pieces like Paolo DelPiccolo and Tyler Gibson were noticeably absent. Corben Bone formally retied, and Napo Matsoso was simply let go. I expect that many of the players listed as "pending" above will make their way back to Lynn Family Stadium, but we may be witnessing a generational handoff in Louisville.
I don't think that Corben Bone will be replaced, and that's because of Wynder's playoff emergence. Against Tampa Bay in the Conference Finals, he scored the go-ahead goal thanks to killer instinct off a set piece. One round prior, his presence in the left half space utterly changed the game for Danny Cruz and galvanized a comeback; see my extended breakdown thread therein.
Bone is a precise forward passer with tight control on the dribble, whereas Wynder tends to take higher, "second striker" positions. The 19-year-old is a solid target when Louisville wants to go direct, and he makes up for lesser creation with more energy tracking back and more verve as a runner off the ball.
I rather like the idea of Carlos Moguel eating up most of Napo Matsoso and Niall McCabe's minutes as the backup defensive midfielder behind Tyler Gibson. Moguel, another 19-year-old, played less than 500 minutes this season, generating a 54th percentile Goals Above Replacement value relative to his time on the pitch. He's a safe pair of hands as a passer, and experience will help.
Let's be real. At the end of the day, Louisville is a lock for a top-three seed in the East whether or not they're playing teenagers in the midfield. Getting minutes to the next wave of stars and building a sustainable roster refresh model from within is unprecedented in the USL, and Cruz can be at the vanguard of such a movement. It helps that Wynder and Moguel seem more than ready to make the leap.
Number Two: How Colorado Springs' early signings mark a change in approach
Down the stretch of the season, the Colorado Springs Switchbacks relied on something like 1,200 minutes of contributions from Bret Halsey, Michael Edwards, and Sebastian Anderson. All three were last-minute loanees that came in late from MLS and MLS NEXT Pro rosters, and while their performances were relatively strong, they still took precious time to integrate into the team.
Brendan Burke's side was similarly reliant on both Edwards and Anderson as spot loanees in 2021, joined by defensive midfielder Philip Makaya. Throughout his tenure in the Centennial State, Burke has patched together a defesive while riding brilliant creators to success. Heading into 2023, we may be seeing a new philosophy take hold.
In the last two weeks, Colorado Springs has signed veterans James Musa and Patrick Seagrist to full contracts. Musa, a central defender, boasts three caps for New Zealand and a smattering of MLS appearances alongside multiple stints at Phoenix Rising. Frankly, he was the guiltiest party in Phoenix's horrid defense, but I think he can fit in a system with less responsibility and a more stable, possessive midfield.
Seagrist, meanwhile, is a left back that was in the all-league conversation for my taste with Memphis this season. He's an inch-perfect crosser and judicious overlapper; he combines those heady contributions with efficient, active defense.
I have it on good word that another veteran defender is on the way to Colorado Springs as well, one with experience across lower-league soccer. In sum, the three additions will go a long way in giving the Switchbacks a true depth at back. This defense rated 13th in expected goals against, 15th in shots on target allowed, and 16th in goals conceded; giving well-regarded defenders an offseason to learn the system is guaranteed to help.
Retaining the core of Matt Mahoney - already re-signed since the initial drafting of this piece - et al. is still key, and Jeff Caldwell must be replaced in net after his retirement. Caldwell, by the way, rated in the 3rd(!) percentile for Goals Saved Above Average in a pretty disastrous campaign; goalkeeping that poor simply won't be repeated. Still, the early steps here are promising to be certain.
Final note: this is the power of that Hadji Barry money, right?
Number Three: Who provides the best landing spot for Dylan Mares
When the El Paso Locomotive and Dylan Mares parted ways at the end of 2022, the midfielder immediately became the premier free agent of this offseason. He's a wonderful attacking midfielder who dominates the central areas with inch-perfect control, a deft sense for ball carriage, and incisive passing. Whoever lands Mares immediately inherits an offensive talisman.
Who, then, can optimize the veteran's skillset in the most effective manner? Mares is ball-dominant, and he best fits in a possessive system that allows him to turn adventurous in the final third while also shepherding counterattacks. In considering viable candidates, I looked at USL clubs with the lowest ratio of key passes - those that lead to a shot - to forward passes. In other words, I tried to glean which teams were inefficient in turning possession to chances.
This isn't a perfect set of candidates, but I like a few names in this group. Indy Eleven and Monterey Bay immediately leap out for me. I've spoken on the Indy fit fairly often. Mares started his professional career with the Eleven in the NASL, and he would be re-uniting with former El Paso gaffer Mark Lowry there. Monterey, meanwhile, showcased an elite defense late last season, but their attack was one-note and based around speedy counters. Mares could provide much-needed variety.
Other teams don't quite work here. Colorado Springs is full-up with Jairo Henriquez, Zach Zandi, and Cam Lindley. Ditto for Pittsburgh and San Diego's crowded midfields. The Riverhounds, however, are losing at least one attacker that Mares could replace in an interesting way. I'm into the fit with the Oakland Roots as they possibly move from a flank-heavy 3-4-3 into whatever Noah Delgado wants to instill, but I've heard that their budget tends to low for a prospective Mares contract.
Wherever the star creator ends up, he'll be hugely impactful. He rated in the 94th percentile for overall value in 2022, capping four consecutive years in the top decile of the league. Frankly, Mares should've been in MLS some time around 2017 or 2018, which captures how much of a coup his addition will be to his future side.
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