Another week of the preseason down, and we're getting ever more hints about rotations. I'm expecting a late-breaking slate of depth signings in the comings weeks as MLS camps break, but there's plenty to analyze until then. In the meantime, check out my 2023 Preview and make sure you're subscribed to Backheeled; my offseason power-rankings are less than 10 days away, and they'll be paywalled.
Number One: Early clues around revamped Indy's attacking system
Vanishingly few matches this preseason have been streamed online, so I was tickled to see Indy Eleven air one of their friendlies this week. Yeah, playing Indiana Wesleyan at the friendly confines of the Grand Park complex - shoutout Westfield - isn't exactly the World Cup Final. There were still lessons to learn here.
For one, Mark Lowry seemed to indicate who was in the mix for his first-choice XI. I've mapped out the 4-3-3, but the rotation between Solomon Asante and Jonas Fjeldberg on the right stood out. I anticipated one of them to start on either flank, but recently-announced FC Cincinnati loanee Harrison Robledo got the nod at left. I also liked teenager Alann Torres getting minutes as the pseudo-no. 10 to spell Jack Blake.
Elsewhere, Gustavo Rissi - usually right-sided with Austin Bold - looked comfortable at left-centerback in a mix with Mechack Jerome and Jesus Vazquez. That's a nice set of good passers in defense, and they held up at the halfway line for much of the match to manage resets.
What of the tactics? The two wingers in the forward line narrowed markedly to accommodate aggressive fullback overlapping. Overlap they did; Younes Boudadi and Robby Dambrot were constantly pushing high. Indeed, the shape was almost a 2-2-5-1 when Indy possessed in the opposing half.
Deeper, the Aodhan Quinn-Cam Lindley pivot widened out behind the brunt of the forward line to fill in the half spaces. You can see that below.
In the screenshot, Dambrot has advanced far up the left wing, and the Quinn/Lindley tandem springs leftward and deep to form something like a diamond at the very base of the Eleven shape. This weaponizes two of the best-passing no. 6s in the USL with space at deep and makes it impossible for the opposition to mark any of the creators out of their full suite of angles.
At other times, the aforementioned pair simply split closer to the sidelines rather than deepen. This, too, forced Indy's foe to widen out and opened vertical passing lanes through the compromised defense.
Lowry's system and the personnel within it utilized a wide-sweeping but controlled palette of passes therein. You awesome saw the Eleven switch from flank to flank, but they did so with diagonal balls that moved momentum forward up the pitch rather than laze horizontally. Often, restarts and goal kicks targeted those advanced fullbacks.
You'll see as much in the clip. The left back receives the long ball from Indy's goalkeeper deep in the attacking half; meanwhile, the left winger tucks narrow. Left-back Dambrot's header on meets striker Sebastian Guenzatti, but Dambrot widely moves after his pass to fill in as a proxy forward.
When this first foray fizzles, the withdrawn winger - Robledo - launches a leading switch to the right back, who can cross into another proxy striker - Fjeldberg, the right winger. Indiana Wesleyan clears, but the danger is real.
If you feel a bit lost, that's sort of the point. This team looked very, very fluid, and these complex rotations are equally confusing for defenses. For an Indy team that often lacked verve in 2022, this growth is already a big deal.
Number Two: Will Danny Cruz default to a 4-4-2 in 2023?
At their best last season, Louisville City turned to a three-man back line to get the job done. Across all USL matches in 2022, the side only used a 3-5-2 or similar shape 24% of the time, but they started in that formation in four of their final six games. In the Eastern Conference Final, a switch from a back four to a back three won Louisville the game.
Sean Totsch, Josh Wynder, and Wes Charpie all feel undroppable to varying degrees. Totsch is the veteran talisman with a sweet right foot, a proclivity for penalty-taking, and the hardest tackling of the bunch. Charpie is less spectacular but remains a solid pick.
Wynder, of course, is the show-stealer. He can still be a bit raw as a pure defender, and his instinct and closing angles while recovering in transition are an occasional flashpoint, but he improves with every passing match. The 17-year-old has excelled as of late with the US youth national teams, and his club side has trumpeted a nasty intercept-and-score that he pulled off against Austin FC of MLS this preseason. The world seems to be in Wynder's palm.
If I'm Danny Cruz, I'm sticking Wynder on the left side of a back three and going hog wild. Still, there are other considerations at play. As Joe Lowery discovered while interviewing the wunderkind on the Backheeled podcast this week, Wynder intends to make a transfer move in June. Given that eventuality and Louisville's depth in the midfield, a 4-4-2 has predominated this preseason.
What you're seeing above is a still from that aforementioned wondergoal sequence. This was a muddy, irregular clip, but Louisville was unmistakably in a 4-4-2 shape. You see a high left winger as a right-sided counterpart lurks off frame. Two forwards turn heel in the video as soon as Wynder intercepts; ditto for a dual central pivot.
This suggestion of a shape was borne out in Danny Cruz's starting units against both Austin FC and New Mexico United in two preseason fixtures. I've mapped out the starters from those games below in a 4-4-2 framework (with apologies to Danny Faundez and Oliver Semmle, the actual netminders in these games).
The strength of this shape is immediately apparent in the forward line. Using a 4-4-2 allows Wilson Harris and Cameron Lancaster to cleanly pair at striker, and Brian Ownby can slot in if he isn't on the right flank. Harris had 15 goals and 99th percentile expected goals per 90 last year, Lancaster is a USL legend with 70 goals in 77.3 matches since 2017, and Ownby is entering his seventh season in Kentucky fresh off 27 goal contributions in his last two years. In some ways, a 4-4-2 is the only way to squeeze these players in with regularity.
The 4-4-2 also allows for clean rotation in the center of the pitch. Dylan Mares, the best free agent pick-up in the league, and Jorge Gonzalez can rotate as offensively-inclined no. 8s alongside a holder like Tyler Gibson or Niall McCabe. There's room to include young guns like Elijah Wynder and Carlos Moguel there as well.
Out wide, you're equally deep with Ray Serrano and Ownby at right. The left is interesting with pseudo-forward Enoch Mushagalusa - a key forward last year that suffers the most from these changes and Lancaster's return to health - new man Rasmus Thellufsen. The latter joined up from Scandinavia this offseason and projects as a properly box-to-box wide outlet, one that makes more sense in this formation.
I'll quit the rote "Louisville's kinda deep" talk and summarize it as such: a 4-4-2 means Danny Cruz is two-deep at every spot. The shape allows for both forwards, both wingers, and one central midfielder to press in an aggressive five that Louisville always employs, recognizes the Wynder situation, and seems to be the default heading into the opening weeks of the upcoming campaign.
Number Three: Assessing every team's stylistic identity heading into the new season
With credit to the Hartford Green Monster, one of the most passionate fans of any club in this country, I was challenged to break down each team's tactical style. That would take a lot of words to do and sort of encroaches on my 2023 Season Preview, but I forged a nice middle ground here. Without further ado, a provisional tactical matrix for the campaign to come:
I've broken down each team in terms of their defensive depth and press aggression as well as their penchant for countering versus dominating possession. As with everything I do, I must give the caveat that there's a lot of subjectivity at play in this breakdown. I'm also making loose stabs for the clubs with new managers.
Take San Antonio. Yeah, they placed dead-last in possession last year and sat deep in a 5-4-1 at times, but they didn't depend on a counter or lump-it-forward, route-one offense. You saw brilliant technique from Christian Parano to break down set foes and regularly got forward forays from centerbacks like Mitchell Taintor while his side had the ball. Still, you could accurately label San Antonio a low-seated, defensive side at hard despite those tactical facets and their aggressive counterpressure.
Thus, I've labeled each quadrant with a somewhat snappy label, so let's get to the meanings.
Bunker and Break
Bottom Left - DCFC, MBFC, OCSC, SAC, SAFC
These clubs are defined by their penchant for sitting low in their defensive block and holding low amounts of possession. They often prefer back-three shapes that shell into fivesomes via withdrawn fullbacks. Alternatively, one or two central midfielders drop low to become sweepers appended to the defensive line.
When teams in this quadrant attack, they often rely on long balls; why commit bodies forward through short passing and small territorial gains? Interestingly, these direct lobs usually target drifting, clever forwards rather than hulking hold-up men. Think Milan Iloski, Sam Gleadle, or Cristian Parano rather than, say, Steevan Dos Santos.
At its best, this style produces teams built for cup competition. 2021's Orange County, 2022's San Antonio, and 2022's Sacramento bear that out. Call it boring or negative, but this can be winning soccer.
End-to-End
Bottom Right - COS, ELP, LDN, LVL, OAK, PHX, RGV
Teams in this sector rely on higher presses and less conservative defensive lines, but they aren't especially possessive. You get more formational variance in this set as well. In some ways, this press-and-counter approach breeds "chaos soccer" in which the user tries to break up opposing flow but looks for quick-hits rather than composed builds in their own right.
Last season's Rio Grande Valley team is an effective exemplar. They sat near 50% for possession, but they placed in the upper third of the USL for long passing and were defined by an exceptionally aggressive 4-2-4 press. Their most effective moves came from enforced turnovers.
A team like Oakland relied on a 3-4-3 shape marked by the exceptional height of its midfield and defensive lines; that spark took them to the playoffs alongside the Toros. However, this is a feast-or-famine prposition. Defensive organization is a must, and you need pace and energy for 90 minutes lest you end up like Phoenix from last year.
Absorb, then Hold
Top Left - HFD, MIA, NMU, PIT
Somewhat rarer in the ranks of the USL, this low-seated and low-tempo style has its benefits and is more popular in the East. These teams don't press with a whole lot of intensity and all use narrower, more defensive midfields. When they do regain, they don't prefer long balls and look to draw opponents out amidst a flood of short passes.
In attack, the units in this quadrants often employ a very traditional no. 10. Danny Barrera in Hartford, Kenardo Forbes in Pittsburgh, and Chris Wehan in New Mexico aren't exactly split-second generators of counterattacks, but they're all immensely skilled at ripping opponents apart with measured balls.
Successful sides like the Tampa Bay Rowdies have arguably sat here in the past, and I'd say that this style has lost popularity in general. Bunkered defending and all-out aggression may be trendier, but cerebral, patient football can still bear fruit in 2023,
Press and Possess
Top Right - BHM, CHS, FCTL, IND, LOU, MEM, SDL, TBR
No style is more popular in the USL than high pressure and patient offense. You'll see high back lines, four- and five-man presses against opposing build, and semi-regular 60% or greater possession totals in this region of the matrix. Their defenses close lanes, goad long balls, and allow for constant regains; the teams enter slow, intentional offensive sequences from there.
Still, there's gradation: Birmingham, for instance, is inconsistent in their application of the 4-2-4 press and often looks for speedy counters. Tampa Bay can bunker low with the best of 'em. I would argue that these teams are strongest when they're adhering to the tenants of this quadrant.
Louisville and San Diego are the truest believers in this kind of style. They're perennially in the top two or three for possession across the USL and camp out in opposing third for fun. Sloppier adherents to this philosophy are often caught out in defense, but this might be the easiest of all the tenets on one's eyes.
Standings Projections
Too lazy for deep breakdowns, but here are my latest numbers. Most updates this week stem from changes to my minutes projections based on preseason lineups and the like. Enjoy the data, and be ready for the last Three Things of the offseason next week!
