Every week in the offseason, I broke down three trends or signings that mattered in the week that was. I'm not committed to that clockwork-like analysis in the regular season - check out Backheeled for 4,000 words of tactical takes every week! - but I wanted to reprise it now based on a few burgeoning points within the USL this year. Without further ado...
Number One: Pittsburgh in the press
Without access to paid data on pressures and defensive actions by location, I've found clearance-based data to be an interesting barometer. If you're at the halfway line, you're never going to clear the ball, right? Necessarily, clearances come in and around your own box.
Keeping that in mind, a low number of clearances relative to total defensive actions ought to represent a team that stems danger before it approaches their net. There are exceptions. A high-possession team can avoid clearances without being good defensively. A team with bad centerbacks will whiff on those clearances entirely.
This year, Pittsburgh is an efficient team in the back that only holds 42% of the ball on average. However, they're only allowing 0.74 xG per match by my math, and they very rarely clear relative to the rest of their interventions. The verdict is clear: the 2023 Riverhounds have a very good press.
In the wake of their recent match against FC Tulsa, I went into detail about Bob Lilley's use of a frenetic 4-2-3-1 in that same vein. Against Rio Grande Valley FC - a team that uses three forwards and a back three to build - Lilley changed shapes into a 5-2-3 of sorts, and I want to devote some time to the intricacies of the look.
The dirty secret of tactical analysis is that all those numerical names (4-4-2, 3-4-3, etc.) are hogwash. I'm identifying the Kizza-Lopez-Dikwa group as a front three when I describe the shape as a 5-2-3, but Tony Lopez spent much of the match sitting deeper than the other two. RGV pushed their center most defender into the midfield with the ball, and Lopez adjusted.
Likewise, the distinction between a back five and a back three isn't real. Most people are well aware of that fact, but it's worth repeating. Dani Rovira - seen pressing high on the opposing left back above - and Luke Biasi both put in huge shifts as the lone defenders on the sidelines.
 Both of those characteristics are seen above. Albert Dikwa and Edward Kizza stay tight to the center backs as Lopez marks the more mobile foe, and Rovira denies the full back. In the middle, Marc Ybarra hedges against another possible option. RGV doesn't have a path forward.
 When the Toros go long, the widest member of the Pittsburgh back three rotates behind the advanced Rovira, and Ybarra is sure to track back in turn. The press is high to begin with, but it's underlain by a commitment to re-forming in the low block as duty requires.
One more example. This time, Kizza overcommits by a half step against Wahab Ackwei, a very capable dribble for a center back. When Ackwei moves up with the ball, Dikwa and Lopez both hedge towards him. In doing so, they greatly limit the possible passing angles and force a meek, horizontal pass rather than an incisive one.
From there, the forwards find their spots again, and Rovira slides high to once again meet the Toros' left back. It all looks easy, and RGV's slow tempo helps the Pittsburgh effort, but this team is the best defensive side in the league right now for a reason. Bob Lilley can take bruising forwards, NCAA products, and USL journeymen and turn them into a stiflingly composed press without a second thought.
Number Two: Indy's slow-tempo woes
After a week-one draw where Indy Eleven took the game to Tampa Bay at Al Lang Stadium, I was all in on this team. The Rowdies were still considered the crème de la crème of USL defenses at that point, and Indy's stellar offseason seemed to be paying dividends already. Fast forward a month, and Indy hasn't scored a goal in 300 minutes.
What happened? The Eleven have the third-worst offense in the league by xG per match, and their efficiency in the box is dire. No team has a worse conversion rate than Indy's 3.8% tally, and they've only got one score in open play. Furthermore, the Boys in Blue are last in the league by crosses completed per shot. Even when the complete a pass into the box, they aren't doing so in a dangerous way.
Some of the issue comes down to tempo. Indy have held 66% of possession on average this season, far and away the highest in the USL. The forward line featuring Sebastian Guenzatti, Douglas Martinez, and the like is devoid of speedsters, the midfield leans cerebral more than self-starting, and no team is more averse to long balls that could spark quick breaks.
The direction of passes played by Indy's attackers paints a clear picture of the malaise. Burdened with extended spells in the final third against set opponents, Eleven forwards have to look sideways or backwards almost 80% of the time, far above league average. All of the team's preferred players up top are below par in terms of progressivity.
The Mark Lowry system famously uses a diamond-shaped 4-4-2 as a baseline, but that can look like a three-forward system in practice. Settled in the final third, Lowry pushes his fullbacks high into something more like a 2-5-3. However, you rarely see the No. 8s on either side of the midfield burst into the box.
In the clip, one of those shuttling midfielders - Jack Blake, a tremendous creator and USL stalwart - advances in tandem with Martinez to spark a solid transition move. This is the kind of play that you cherish as an offense, but the late-arriving runs into the box that give this play thrust are missing in action. Only Guenzatti crashes in.
You can see the paucity of runners at the moment when Blake rounds onto the ball for his first touch. This should absolutely be a crossing moment! However, Martinez is outside of the box, and players like Harrison Robledo and Aodhan Quinn are nowhere to be seen.
This second example sees Indy edge towards the box at a good clip, generating a four-on-four break with potential aplenty. A similar Blake-Martinez connection gets things rolling, allowing for a centering ball into Robledo.
Consider the touches that Martinez takes here. Yes, he sets up Robledo in the end, but he takes a lifetime to get to that point. I understand the necessity to get Blake's overlap going and to let runners get into the box (which, uh, doesn't happen), but there has to be a greater impetus here.
When the Cincinnati loanee does receive, he's faced with Guenzatti crowded by two defenders on the left and Martinez making a good right-sided run at an impossible passing angle. Robledo could shoot, but that's a low-percentage look for the best of long-range snipers. Analysis paralysis strikes, and Orange County takes the ball away.
There aren't clean answers for Indy at the moment. Solomon Asante, typically the man in the Robledo spot above, is miscast as a No. 10. Ditto Martinez as a traditional striker. These are two players who excel in transition, cheating high out of the defensive block and cutting outside-in. Even if they're deployed well, who's the tempo man in the middle? Can this team lose the doctrinal commitment to short passes and provide a more varied threat? Things need to change before the Eleven are adrift in the playoff hunt.
Number Three: Solidifying the middle in Monterey
When 2023 began, Monterey Bay ostensibly had a deep central midfield. Three returning players could compete for two starting spots in a double pivot. James Murphy and Mobi Fehr were preferred, Arun Basuljevic was the rotation option, and Adrian Rebollar could slide down in a pinch.
Now, Basuljevic has parted ways with the club, and Murphy is nursing a hamstring injury. In just under 400 minutes played, Murphy ranked in the 67th percentile of central midfielders for defensive actions and the 79th for passes completed; he can do a job. Rebollar, a natural No. 10, has the energy as a presser to do a job, but he's not the shoo-in at the spot embodied by a Murphy type.
To fill the void, Frank Yallop turned to Nevello Yoseke. The 27-year-old veteran of the lower leagues trialed with Monterey in the preseason, and he became the natural option to fill out the squad given their thin middle. Thrown into the gauntlet against a spunky Phoenix team last weekend, Yoseke looked more than up to his new task.
You'll see #5 doing yeoman's work in the highlight reel above. He's sitting above the defense and knocking away clearances, stepping up when threats like Danny Trejo try and receive, and deftly managing the ball under pressure. For my taste, Murphy provides more of a progressive spark in possession, but Yoseke looks more than capable at all the basic needs of a No. 6.
By the numbers, the first-time starter completed 38 passes on 86% accuracy in Arizona. He only won three out of eight duels, but none of the whiffs were especially memorable or harmful. Three crucial interceptions paint a more accurate picture.
Is a Nevello Yoseke type going to make an all-league team or turn Monterey into a title contender? Absolutely not, and he's not expected to do so. This is a team with a Sterling counterattack that simply needs depth and steel in the midfield. To sign a player, start him less than two weeks later, and get this sort of performance is the definition of pragmatism, and it's why I'm bullish on how Yallop and co. are running this organization.