It's just about a month until the season starts, and most rosters across the league are developed enough to draw conclusions about rotations and tactics. I hit on that heavier sort of analysis here, but I also decided to rank some dudes. Want to know where a given USL player ranks relative to his peers? Give my tiers a click.
In any event, make sure you're subscribed to Backheeled for power rankings season at the end of the month, and let's get down to business...
Number One: Bruno Lapa and the next stage for Memphis 901
In the last three years, Brazilian midfielder Bruno Lapa of the Birmingham Legion put up:
7 goals, 5 assists in 14.4 games (2020)
5 goals, 2 assists in 15.6 games (2021)
5 goals, 4 assists in 17.2 games (2022)
That's just about a goal created every other match, and it's indicative of Lapa's status as one of the most talented attacking threats in the USL. That Birmingham let him walk was surprising. His move to the Legion's biggest rivals, Memphis 901, is shocking.
What, specifically, makes the midfielder special? The clip below gives a taste:
You'll see two finishes where number eight deftly finds the ball at the top of the box and slots a right-footed shot into the left corner. Lapa controls a knock-down, slides into traffic, and lays off a wildly soft pass. He slices into the half space for an assist, tracks back to put in a tackle, and plays second-perfect balls while diving into the channels. The ex-Legion man is pristine at finding space off of his teammates and making the opposition pay.
Birmingham's high-end talent in attack suited Lapa well by creating such space; the same thing applies to Memphis's team. The second-placed team in the East also placed second in the entire USL for goals scored and third for expected goals. The vast majority of their attack - Golden Boot contender Phillip Goodrum, MVP finalist Aaron Molloy, creators Laurent Kissiedou, Luiz Fernando, and Dylan Borczak - has returned. Lapa slots in as the true no. 10 they arguably missed.
Below, you can get the sense for a potential lineup:
Two big changes stand out in an attacking sense, both on the left. Patrick Seagrist, a 94th percentile GAR fullback gone to Colorado Springs, and Jeremy Kelly, still unannounced after eight goals and nine assists in 2022, have left AutoZone Park.
Kissiedou can viably fill in on the wing. He had seven goals and five assists last season but ranked in the:
60th percentile for key passes per forward pass
57th percentile for expected assists per 90
32nd percentile for his forward pass share
He's an excellent player with exceptional passing vision, but he's best utilized as a secondary scoring piece and tertiary creator; let Lapa cook as a distributor, and watch Kissiedou flourish. Akeem Ward, the new left back, is also capable on the over- and underlap as a Seagrist simulacrum.
My analysis of Stephen Glass' stints with Atlanta United 2 and Aberdeen found that he wants to own possession. His teams have suffered when they lacked for creators, and Memphis clearly isn't in that situation. Their suite of passers and scorers is amidst the USL's best.
Glass is a 4-2-3-1 man, and his mushy identity as a defensive coach may prove questionable. I don't love the core of Jelani Peters, Graham Smith, and Carson Vom Steeg at centerback, and Drew Romig's two career professional starts render the goalie spot a question mark. That said, Memphis could drop top-five-adjacent defense and be fine, and they have Bruno Lapa to thank for that in a major way.
Number Two: How Matt Sheldon and Beverly Makangila solidify Tab Ramos' system
The top-down rebuild of Hartford Athletic in a lot of ways, but my inner pedant has harbored worries. Antoine Hoppenot and Elvis Amoh sharpened the knife's edge in attack in a massive way, and I liked Niall Logue's distribution from the back line in an otherwise-blase build-out group, but questions persisted.
What would happen if Conor McGlynn, part of my USL Watchlist for 2023 and beyond and the only no. 6 on the roster prior to this week, got injured? How could Tab Ramos square a mismatched combo of Ash Apollon and Triston Hodge at fullback with a narrow 4-3-3? In picking up Matt Sheldon and Beverly Makangila, the side has addressed both of these concerns.
Let's start with the benefits of the Sheldon signing. For one, he's a straight-up good player and a veteran voice in the changing room. Ramos is obviously a tenured coach, and invest value in "locker room culture" at your own peril, but Sheldon is part of a good group of dudes.
Sharp as a passer and considerate in his timing when advancing into attack, Sheldon has gracefully aged from an end-to-end dynamo into a more conservative sort of fullback. Charleston utilized him variously as wingback (74% of his minutes) or wide centerback (26% overall but 86% in the final two months of the year) to suit this evolution. While still effective, he isn't an offensive titan that will serve as a proxy forward.
Given the construction of Hartford's lineup, that role is completely fine! Prince Saydee, a 26-year-old lightning bolt, is expected to start in front of Sheldon on the right wing. Saydee brings pace and energy, and his ability to stretch to the sideline meshes splendidly with the new signing's style.
The knock-on effect of the Sheldon move is that Ash Apollon can start on the left flank rather than Triston Hodge. Trinidadian centerback-fullback Hodge is a much more conservative sort of player, whereas Apollon is a much abler overlapper. Apollon is equally comfortable on the right or left, we should note.
Why does that matter? Consider Antoine Hoppenot's style of play as a winger:
As opposed to Saydee, Hoppenot is a roamer and explorer. He certainly can stretch out and whip in a cross, but his game is defined by the ability to find space. The Frenchman move into zone 14 or fully invert if it lets him create.
If Hoppenot wanders, that leaves the left wing vacant. With Hodge at fullback, you're worse off in that area; he lacks the technique and recovery pace to fill the gap. Apollon, by contrast, gets end to end and can complement the former Le Rouge star with aplomb.
I did want to comment on the Makangila addition as well. I don't mind Kembo Kibato, a Tulsa import, or Kaveh Rad, formerly of the Sporting Kansas City system, but neither is fully natural in the defensive midfield. Conor McGlynn is brilliant, but he needs cover that those two can't provide. Kibato is more of a no. 8 and Rad is better at centerback.
Meanwhile, the former Switchback inked this week fits the desired bill. His numbers indicate no-nonsense ability to win challenges, put them in with regularity, and hold onto the ball under duress. Makangila isn't much of a progressor, but he doesn't have to be with Logue and Sheldon's quality from the back and the surety of Danny Barrera dropping in to find touches.
What's more, Makangila is comfortable operating next to other deep-lying sorts. Experienced next to Steven Echevarria, Cam Lindley, and Zach Zandi, he could effectively pair with McGlynn if Ramos needs to shut a game down and sit in deep.
Ultimately, both he and Sheldon go a long way in rounding out the Hartford squad. This team isn't without questions in terms of goalkeeping quality and depth at striker, but there's a real quality to their tactical vision evidenced in their squad-building. My model is still bearish, but I'm increasingly buying what they're selling in Connecticut.
Number Three: Who drives progression for the new-look Charleston Battery and El Paso Locomotive?
In the latest lineup projections in my Offseason Tracker, I have both El Paso and Charleston running 3-5-2 shapes with a single holding midfielder. In such a setup, a team is reliant on their wingbacks to provide side-to-side width in possession and a crossing threat in the final third. However, those wingbacks cannot receive the ball in dangerous areas without distributors in the midfield line. Do the Battery and Locomotive have the personnel to generate offense in a 3-5-2?
Detroit City's 2021 season provides an interesting test case. Le Rouge progressed most effectively through their wingbacks or through balls over the top into Antoine Hoppenot as he drifted wide. Maxi Rodriguez provided some passing incision, but his low positioning rendered him less able to pull the strings. By contrast, Connor Rutz, the nominal no. 10, lacked the chops to consistently orchestrate play; he rated in the 9th percentile for expected assists per 90.
The result? Detroit placed 19th in the league for expected goals and 20th for goals scored. Trevor James' side hasn't been very active this offseason, but in Adrian Billhardt and Skage Simonsen they've added two pieces that can better dictate play between the forward and midfield lines. Still, the cautionary precedent of 2021 is plain to see.
Let's start with Charleston. Their offseason has been fairly transformative. In picking up Deklan Wynne, they've added an eight-assist man from Detroit City to their left flank. Tristan Trager also provides an interesting piece at forward, one that excelled with Atlanta United 2. Who's feeding that pair and seasoned striker Augustine Williams?
Emilio Ycaza stands out as the key piece for Ben Pirmann in his debut season. Though middling in terms of his raw forward pass share, the ex-Toro makes opponents pay thanks to the precision of his progressive balls. He ranked in the 69th percentile for expected assists per 90, but that was in a defensive Rio Grande Valley team and undersells his cumulative effect.
If Ycaza is one font of verve and drive, can he rely on any secondary creators. Robbie Crawford's forward passing is more consistent, and he hits a mean diagonal, but his deep-lying position and overall safety render him somewhat feckless in this conversation. Andrew Booth could be better. He operated as a no. 10 with the Battery last year and showed potential. He's probably a better ball carrier than passer, but his presence next to Ycaza could open up lanes.
The worry comes from Chris Allan and Handwalla Bwana, two imports from Pirmann's Memphis teams. Both were bright in attacking areas, with Allan proving to be a mean presser and both he and Bwana impressing with late-arriving goalscoring runs. Neither, however, is a linker, meaning that a heavy burden may fall onto Ycaza if one displaces Booth in the midfield.
What about El Paso? Over at Seriously Loco, fellow USL Show co-host Phil Baki broke down new gaffer Brian Clarhaut's tendencies, noting that he often prefers the aforementioned 3-5-2. Seriously Loco's Mikka Burrell also analyzed the qualities of Marc Navarro, an option at right wingback to match the Eder Borelli/Nick Hinds platoon at left.
Navarro may start at wingback, though the thinnish centerback group for the Locomotive and his tendency to get beat goalside in transition out wide could render him a wide centerback. In that case, Ricardo Zacarias may be stuck on the right. Given El Paso's midfield options, that's a big deal.
Zacarias, one my favorite breakouts of 2022, registered more expected assists than any other midfielder or fullback currently on the Locomotive roster. He also rated in the 75th percentile for his ratio of key passes to general forward passes; he has a decent eye for line-breaking, shot-creating distribution. Pin him to a wide role, and the burden of central creation falls heavy on Eric Calvillo.
Calvillo is excellent as a ball-mover and -carrier in the final third and at the heart of the pitch; his contributions in that category carried Orange County to the title in 2021. Still, his success came in combination with Brian Iloski, and the same largely applied alongside Dylan Mares last year in El Paso. Chapa Herrera, Liam Rose, and the rest of the midfield corps simply can't replicate that effect, and I'm worried if Zacarias - the best option on the squad - is marooned elsewhere.
In a high-parity league filled with dangerous opponents, both Charleston and El Paso will have to find consistent creation to keep up in the playoff race. There is, however, an interesting corollary here. Refer back to the hypothetical attacking scenario mapped above, and imagine that one of the centerbacks - say, Marc Navarro on the Locomotive right or AJ Paterson on the Battery left - crashes into the attacking zone. Variation exists, and I'm oversimplifying things. One or two no. 8s does not a silver bullet make.
In any event, my playoff projection model has each club within two points or so of the eight-seed drop line, so hitting the ground running in attack will be crucial for these 3-5-2 clubs. There are questions marks for sure, but I'm excited to see how Brian Clarhaut and Ben Pirmann develop their systems.
Standings Projections
Them's the numbers; I don't have many takes. Light week in the East (Miami! is! too! low!), and Oakland slides into the Western playoff field on the back of an interesting pick-up at striker and the insertion of semi-proven Koze Donasiyano into the central midfield.
See y'all next week.