Welcome one, welcome all to the first true week of the USL offseason. Congrats once again to San Antonio FC on a staggeringly good year. You can read my title-game recap at Backheeled and check out Linktree for my Transaction Tracker and other nerdy endeavors.
Number One: Mapping Pirmann's archetypes onto the Battery roster
The biggest news of the week in the Championship was Charleston nabbing the reigning Coach of the Year for their vacant managerial spot. 2022 was a struggle for the Battery in Connor Casey's first and only campaign, but the hiring of Lee Cohen to run the team and the addition of Ben Pirmann as manager are a sign of better things to come.
Memphis' success last year under Pirmann was undeniable. They came second in the East, scored the second-most goals in the league, and were a top-five side by expected goal differential. In part, 901's success relied on talented on-ball defenders, good goalkeeping, and a well-drilled and connected squad; the gaffer scouted and drilled that unit.
Still, three attacking-minded players stand out as the keys to Pirmann's system: Phillip Goodrum, Jeremy Kelly, and Aaron Molloy. Roster change will be inevitable in Charleston, but does their 2021 roster have the talent to fill their shoes?
1.) Augustine Williams as Phillip Goodrum
One of the keys to Memphis' success was a 15% conversion rate, second-best in the USL. Phillip Goodrum, the Golden Boot runner-up, led that charge. Goodrum is a very smart mover in the attacking third and has a real instinct for poaching rebounds. Off the ball, he's brilliant cutting against the momentum of defenders. You see those same skills when watching Augustine Williams, a fearsome goalscorer even in an impotent Battery side. He lags Goodrum in terms of expected goals and raw scoring per 90 minutes, but his smart runs and ability to leverage a lanky, quick frame stand out.
The secondary aspects that Goodrum provides are more of a question mark. The striker's hard-nosed pressure - reflected in the difference in defensive action numbers here, 39th versus 14th percentile - are the main issue. Charleston was actually fairly aggressive in the high press, but Williams tended to sit on the back shoulder of opposing centerbacks as an outlet off of turnovers. He wasn't wreaking havoc. Goodrum, by contrast, was the fiercest, most shithousing presser you can imagine.
Augustine Williams is going to be a core piece for this team no matter what, but he'll have to adjust to a certain degree. I think he can do so comfortably.
2.) Matt Sheldon as Jeremy Kelly
In writing up Jeremy Kelly as an all-league snub at Backheeled, I registered the following thought:
Memphis was the surprise titan of the East this year, and Phillip Goodrum (2nd in the league in goals) and Aaron Molloy (2nd in assists) were recognized for their team’s success. Still, Jeremy Kelly is as important as either of those players. The left winger finished one spot behind Molloy on the assist leaderboard and contributed eight goals during the season. Moreover, his slaloming runs from the touchline towards the center of the field consistently wreaked havoc and gave his 901 teammates the space to thrive.
If Pirmann wants to create the space for Williams to feast, he must find a candidate to recreate Kelly's gravity and creativity on the flank. Kelly was a converted right back that shone in an attacking deployment, and I think Matt Sheldon could do the same.
You can see a lovely assist from the Charleston right-sider above, one of two he earned last year. Sheldon was cursed with limiting deployment as a wide centerback and a woeful lack of service from the midfield; by contrast, he tallied three assists and two goals in a more coherent Tulsa team in 2021. To my mind, the creation, long-range shooting, and defensive instinct are there for him. Sheldon is probably a step slower and less vivacious on the dribble than Kelly, but I'm sold.
3.) *cricket noises* as Aaron Molloy
This is where I have trouble seeing Pirmann pull a rabbit out of his tactical hat. Aaron Molloy finished second in MVP voting for a reason; he played as the deeper member of a midfield pivot pair, creating from deep like few else in the history of the USL. You'd literally see Molloy stand next to the goalkeeper on restarts to quarterback controlled passing moves, but then he'd burst into the final third as a string-puller after masterfully sparking zone entrances.
Molloy is also a top-end set-piece taker; the cumulative impact of his skillset is reflect in 18 total goals and assists. Furthermore, he rated in the 86th percentile for defensive actions per 90, and that's with Leston Paul operating as his go-getting, hard-tackling partner in the midfield. You've got a player in Molloy who does everything splendidly.
Charleston isn't without talent in the middle, but they don't have anyone who combines Molloy's varied abilities. Andrew Booth can do the job in the final third. He ranked in the 98th percentile for expected goals per 90 and the 86th for expected assists per 90 and also showed flashes as a ball-carrier in transition. Deeper, Robbie Crawford has sparks of that Pirlo-esque creation. He plays a wonderful diagonal ball, can sit between two centerbacks and dictate play, and earned five assists between stops in Charleston and Monterey last year.
Still, Booth rated in the 25th percentile for defensive actions, while the lower-seated Crawford came out in the 64th; neither is as astute as Molloy in the press. Maybe Pirmann changes systems and reorients his midfield. After all, you can't just rely on just having a Molloy in your squad. Still, this is the primary area where the Battery must add if they want to make a playoff splash.
Number Two: Brett Levis and the potential of the CPL
This week, FC Tulsa began their Blair Gavin-era retool by announcing the addition of Brett Levis, a veteran left back. Levis plied his trade across MLS and the USL as part of the Vancouver Whitecaps organization before excelling with Valour FC in the Canadian Premier League. Last year, Levis was named to the all-league team in the CPL.
I'm fully convinced that Levis' quality north of the border will make the transition back to the States. In analyzing the fullbacks that Gavin assistant-coached in Phoenix, Levis fits the bill. He's not the most aggressive overlapper, but he's very technical on the ball and sports a tight first touch; his underlapping runs are impressive to boot. In the clips above, you can see how he often starts deep in build to support possession before judiciously advancing. I couldn't find enough Valour footage to fully assess his defending, but his positioning seems fine at a bare minimum.
There are plenty of test cases for USL (and NASL!) players leaving for Canada and succeeding, and Monterey Bay benefited handsomely by importing Morey Doner last season. Doner appears in a cameo role in the video above, in fact. After that, he joined Frank Yallop's expansion crew and put up a 95th percentile season by my Goals Above Replacement metric. I don't know if he was quite that amazing, but Doner certainly proved to be an above-average starter at this level.
Why don't we see more players jumping from the CPL to the USL? Since the Ottawa Fury left the Championship and Toronto FC II left League One at the end of 2020, Canadians have been considered internationals on USL rosters. The leagues pretty similar levels of pay, and there must be an appeal to staying close to home by remaining in the Great White North. You're also likelier to draw the eyes of the national team in the domestic first division as compared to the USL Championship.
Still, smart teams like Tulsa know what the league can provide. Levis' multi-year deal illustrates a discerning sense of roster-building from an underrepresented source.
Number Three: Answering your questions
Mailbag time! I put out the call on Twitter and got a handful of questions about various USL topics, so let's get down to some answers.
Louisville Ledgehogs asked: Which team is set up for the biggest drop-off and uptick next season (as things stand today)?
Answer: As I'm sure any Louisville fan will be delighted to hear, I'm going with Indy Eleven as a team that could make a step up. They ended the season in great form, earning results at a 64-point pace over the last 10 games; that would've landed Indy in fourth over an entire year. The Eleven identified pieces like Robby Dambrot and Juan Tejada that can fit Mark Lowry's approach, settled upon Stefano Pinho as their goalscorer, and have a whole offseason to improve.
In terms of a drop-off, I think the Oakland Roots could have a tough time. Ottar Karlsson and Mikael Johnsen probably won't be back as loanees; you're losing a 20-goal forward and versatile, technical midfield piece. I could see Juan Guerra poaching some of his guys for Phoenix Rising as well. You're also ratcheting down the sense of fire and unity that inspired Oakland's playoff run after Guerra jumped ship. The West is tough, and I could see this team regressing a bit.
David asked: Indy Eleven, Dylan Mares, reunion?
Answer: Yes, yes, yes. I don't have sources, but I feel like Mares-to-Indy has to happen. He's a Mark Lowry guy and an original member of the NASL club, and he would be the essential piece to inspire the improvement I just predicted above.
Kaylor asked: What drinks do teams remind you of? For example, my brain says that Monterey Bay is Jack and Coke. El Paso is a Vegas Bomb. Vegas is a shotgunned Natty Light.
Answer: Kaylor (follow Hammering Down and The USL Show!) made this harder by offering up some great choices. I'll overly complicate things and pitch a Hatch Chile Margarita for New Mexico United. I've had this drink at one of my favorite restaurants in Phoenix, and it captures the feel of the Southwest with a very particular nod to New Mexico's whole chile pepper thing.
Can The Miami FC be a Corona? You want this team to be flashy and exciting like a rum-based cocktail, but they're a more basic approximation of South Beach flair instead.
Noodlehawk asked: What do you think Louisville City should do with younger players? Our experienced core will eventually be too old, but will guys like Wynder and Moguel become regular starters or get loaned to develop while new signings back up our existing players?
Answer: Play. The. Kids. I might be a bit lower than some on Joshua Wynder as a pure defender, but he was immensely good all year long considering that he can't legally vote. Elijah Wynder had a breakout postseason and can be a good super-sub; the loan to FC Tucson was a setback for him, frankly. Danny Cruz is a better overseer of his development.
With the elder Wynder, you've only got a limited amount of Paolo DelPiccolo left, and Corben Bone literally just retired. Meanwhile, Moguel is close enough to, say, Niall McCabe in terms of quality that you're better off throwing him the minutes as the #6 when Tyler Gibson can't go. Moguel will be better if he gets real minutes.
The money that you'd spend bringing in veterans as squad pieces would be better served getting one or two nailed-on stars and letting the kids figure it out alongside.
In Other News
Monterey Bay has six re-signings right now - see the Transaction Tracker - and they're all two-year deals. That's pretty darn unprecedented. It shows faith in a core that ended the season well, and it's great for the players.
James Musa was -8 in terms of Phoenix Rising's goal difference with him on the pitch. They were even in differential in the 17 games he missed. Naturally, a Colorado Springs team that allowed more goals than any other playoff side identified him as the solution at centerback.
I'm pouring one out for Queensboro and OKC,
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