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But without further ado...
Title Contenders
1.) LOUISVILLE: The 4-1-4-1 is tried, true, and shutdown nine times out of ten, but the isolation of the "1" holding midfielder showed as Miami opened the scoring this weekend. All four attacking-minded centermen jumped up to press, the hosts worked with a clean one-touch transition into a lonely Tyler Gibson, and the Totsch-Charpie pair - no one's idea of a speedy duo - couldn't compete on the back foot.
Elsewhere, Manny Perez sat very deep on the right to challenge an aggressive left-sided wingback for the opposition, but the move initially hamstrung the Kentuckians and left them undermanned as they entered the final third. With a lead, a strong Miami defense limited shot quality and rode a five-save goalkeeping performance to a huge win. Nothing crushing for Danny Cruz with a somewhat rotated lineup, but I think the concession shows that you can never rest on your laurels in a high-pressing system.
2.) SAN ANTONIO: Cristian Parano got back into the mix as San Antonio took on Indy, and we should be very afraid. Someone that dynamic and smart is a brilliant fit in a team that ranks second-from-bottom in touches per shot. San Antonio plays fast, and Parano, sitting on the left side of the midfield, is more capable than anyone of capturing possession and working into high-percentage looks on the counter. Still, we got another goal down the right featuring misaligned defenders amidst a rotated eleven for this team. I've listed the caveats already; these players don't know how to operate next to one another in a fine-tuned press. Still, I want to see San Antonio return to their unbeatable, score-first ways sooner rather than later, lest they get stuck trying to break down a low back line like Indy's.
3.) TAMPA BAY: If Tampa Bay can get the LaCava-Guenzatti-Fernandes forward line ticking, then this side has unlimited potential come playoff time. The hold-up alternatives to Guenzatti have been good, but his interchange and explosion at his peak are next-level. He scored playing as the #9 in a title rematch on Saturday, and Neill Collins again went for a shape somewhere between a 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3. I frankly don't love the inconsistency, and the do-it-all nature of a Leo Fernandes often leaves him far afield at key moments in build.
That flow pays off when #11 dribbles half the distance of the pitch to score, but his opening goal came in a moment of real structure in the 4-2-3-1. Conner Antley, a real jack of all trades, pressed from the wide right as Fernandes stayed true to his more central forward position, and the pair hit paydirt. Fernandes broke through at deep - maybe that flexibility is good, after all - to assist Guenzatti on the second goal as well, furthering an MVP-level campaign. This is a weaker Orange County side by a mile in 2022, but this game had to feel good.
4.) SAN DIEGO: Increasingly, the Loyal sit in a permanent 3-5-2 that can deepen into a 5-3-2 under fire, but I think the fluid system of old was a better fit for Landon Donovan's side. The new look pushes the fullbacks higher by design, a semi-suicidal decision when you're facing teams like Oakland that are defined by top-notch wide attacking. Elijah Martin has a case for all-league recognition and maybe even a stray MVP vote, but he can't be everywhere covering to the touchline while maintaining a compact three-mean core. By comparison, a 4-4-2 is clean, easy to adopt, and naturally more conservative in the wide areas. San Diego is endlessly talented in attack, leading the lead in goals amidst a top-ten expected goals campaign, so that extra shade of shape-based solidity wouldn't hurt.
5.) BIRMINGHAM: So, Anderson Asiedu is just a left winger now, I guess? Tommy Soehn keeps pulling his best Bob Lilley to put the best #6/#8 hybrid in the USL out wide, but the Herivaux-Lapa pair that supplanted him in the pivot struggled to assert their steel against a young and fiery Red Bulls II team. I like to call a 4-4-2 with two high forwards and a deep pivot an "empty bucket," and that described the Legion in the early stages of their Sunday matinee, despite the occasional deep show from Enzo Martinez. The same pivot was caught sleeping on the penalty earn for New York in the first half, rendering Phanuel Kavita feckless in no-man's land and isolating Alex Crognale to concede the foul.
Whence came the breakthrough? Bruno Lapa finally began to advance and orchestrate play from zone 14, and his presence combined with a Martinez drop - effective, eh? - to draw NYRB up. One classic, brilliant Jonny Dean overlap later, and the match was tied, but the more diamond-esque look set the table. Juan Agudelo earned a penalty and converted it himself to take the lead, and the Legion saw things out from there. It wasn't pretty to start, and the alignment deserves some questioning, but a win is a win.
6.) SACRAMENTO: Stop me if you've heard this before: Rodrigo Lopez is vital to the Sacramento Republic. In the first half alone against Oakland this Saturday, #8 had eight passes into the final third against a fairly stout defense. He just has the sixth sense for creation, and that threat constantly drew the opposing back three and opened up gaps. Lopez and Keko dropped low and wide into a formidable 5-4-1 that neutralized Oakland's league-best wingback pair as they overlapped; the Spaniard, as ever, was especially dogged in his defending. The minus? Maalique Foster was pedestrian as a lone forward, but that's fine when you can lean on a defense this good.
Playoff Locks
7.) MIAMI: We don't give enough love to Anthony Pulis' defensive mind. His side struggles to score, earning just one goal or less in two-third of their games. Still, the defense is top three by expected goals allowed over the last month or so, and the flexibility of the 3-4-3 shape is lovely. At time, Joaquin Rivas can push high into a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3. At other, he sits low and someone like a Florian Valot can press up in a two-man line. The variation means that an opposing attack can't quite establish patterns in build.
In Miami's own spells of possession, I love what Aedan Stanley's ball-carriage as an inbetweener of a left-centerback brings to the table. Louisville regularly had to over-recover to his side, opening quick horizontal moves back across the middle that opened up a vaunted foe. At the end of the day, everything went right, Connor Sparrow did the job in net, and Miami got another massive win. That's five wins in a six, underlying numbers be damned.
8.) MEMPHIS: After a tough 4-2 loss in the Southern Harm derby with Birmingham, 901 FC got a bye week. Memphis does a fantastic job of finding their shape and limiting what teams can do down the middle, but the Legion took advantage by playing into the channels in transition and breaking past aggression in the center. Does this team have a problem in its defensive pivot? Aaron Molloy is in the 87th percentile for defensive actions, but his tackle win rate is below average. Conversely, Leston Paul is in the top third for efficiency but the 30th percentile for total interventions. Paul is the last line of defense behind Molloy's "attack dog" tendencies, but you can beat Memphis if #23 pushes too hard. I ultimately think Ben Pirmann and company are okay, but the balance is something to flag.
9.) DETROIT: A lot of performances for Le Rouge have felt labored in recent weeks, and I want to see more of Yazeed Matthews and, uh, any of Cy Goddard to freshen things up or change shapes. Still, Detroit had their moments as ever, and Conor Rutz was key once again. He can sit in a flat three in the middle a lot of the time, but he distinctly sat between the forward and defensive lines against Charleston's split midfield two. The timing of his pressure, especially in tandem with a narrowed Rhys Williams, created a number of very nice breaks.
The second half was sharper. Antoine Hoppenot aggressively hugged to the channel, stretching the Charleston back line. Meanwhile, Michael Bryant got feisty at centerback, swapping with Deklan Wynne without a second thought to create turnovers and spark breaks. All of this gave Detroit a stretch of shape-breaking fire power, and Pato Botello's excellent movement came good. The striker is in the 80th percentile for expected goals per shot and the 90th for overall value, and this one showed just how valuable #19 can be in the Motor City. Great stuff as always from tinkerin' Trevor James.
By request, let's dig in to that second-half brilliance as a season-long trend. On the year, Detroit maintains a 20-13 edge in goals in second halves compared to a 14-11 advantage in the opening period. However, that entire seven-goal margin was comprised of a magical month of April in which Le Rouge won four games and drew another while scoring seven times in second halves without conceding. I still think Trevor James is a tactical mastermind, and his team's broader results and improvements against Charleston are evidence to the positive in that regard, but the point is an interesting one.
10.) COLORADO SPRINGS: I know I've been a proponent of more traditional looks for the Switchbacks, but the 4-2-3-1 with a Beverly Makangila-Steven Echeverria pivot is too predictable in build. Makangila is in the 9th percentile for forward passing and Echeverria the 18th; their fecklessness allows for hearted closing against the all-important deep drops from Hadji Barry et al. Still, the waves of deep support bore fruit. On the opening goal, a great sequence started with Jairo Henriquez and Bret Halsey switching spots. Elvis Amoh streaked right behind them, and the amalgamation of moves completely addled New Mexico. One switch later, and Hadji Barry was in for a goal. The change to prioritize these supporting runs in build was a masterstroke that opened the game for Brendan Burke's side, and he deserves credit for the change in style and the reactivity in recent weeks after quite the dry spell.
11.) PITTSBURGH: Bob Lilley rejects your concepts of "consistency" and "normalcy," so we got a Kizza-Dikwa striker pair this weekend for the 'Hounds. Kenardo Forbes often pressed between that combination in a threesome, marking yet another week of funhouse-mirror team selection between Forbes and Robbie Mertz. Still, swapping between that pair - following great hold-up from Kizza, mind you - powered the first Pittsburgh goal, and I think that level of interchange and trio energy is what this team needs all the time. Both give you a lot as a pseudo-forward or #8; leverage that! Another quick shout for Edward Kizza, whose hold-up powered goal two as well. I didn't see much from him at the start of the year in Memphis, but he could be a nice get against my snap judgement.
On the Bubble
12.) EL PASO: How good is Aaron Gomez? With six goals and seven assists, the mainline numbers make it clear, but the forward is also in the 96th percentile for Goals Above Replacement. His movement was paramount as El Paso broke down a new-look Phoenix side in a match with playoff stakes. Watch back the opening Lucho Solignac goal, for instance. Gomez doesn't get a touch, but his leftward run opens the gap that lets Solignac receive and score. Ditto that third goal, where he pins Darnell King. Gomez is just a really, really smart presence for a team with a wealth of heady attackers.
More importantly, El Paso is back within a half point my predicted playoff field and sits in the real top seven in the West. They feel like they’ve generated a modicum of momentum, Richie Ryan and Eder Borelli are re-integrated, and the last few performances have mostly been good amidst somewhat mixed results. Phoenix is…whatever…in 2022, but Saturday felt like a statement.
13.) NEW MEXICO: Zach Prince loves to mix things up with his shape, so New Mexico went back to a 5-2-3 as they squared off with Colorado Springs. I dug the center-denying angles taken by Chris Wehan and Amando Moreno as the wingers in that system's press; it stifled a high-tempo foe. There was intention behind every choice to close or not to close; the less creative defensive midfielders were allowed to blast balls out of touch, but drops from players like Elvis Amoh were rapidly collapsed upon. Those extra waves created issues, as near the end of the first half when the defense was drawn too high against such a sequence, opening a ball over the top that isolated Hadji Barry. The spacing from New Mexico's back three was poor and overly reactive, worsening the midfield misalignment. I so wish this team would put together a really good run, but I can't buy into them as anything but a playoff entrant without title upside on top of that minimum.
14.) TULSA: Every single game for FC Tulsa is must-win, and the Hartford performance lacked the needed intensity. The first half saw the 3-4-2-1 press system exposed. That tiered front three left gaps in the middle, and the distance between those lines and the midfield pivot gave Hartford too much time. With the chance to pick out passes, the visitors regularly played over Tulsa's high wingbacks. A shape change at halftime let the side equalize, but it also left the reduced centerback duo undermatched against Hartford's front three in the dying minutes of the match, leading to that crushing defeat.
Still, the back four remained at the weekend with the pivotal Marcus Epps in the eleven. The opening concession for Tulsa came in transition when Adrian Diz pushed too far up, leaving just one teammate as a last line of defense the counter. The back three can be too static in attack, I guess, but the solidity in front of net that it provides might be too much to yield up. Still, Tulsa showed a lot of heart in coming back to win against their Virginia foe, and Dario Suarez made it three goals in four games to rebound one in late-on. He's the somewhat surprising talisman for this possible playoff shout.
15.) LOS ANGELES: By the numbers, the Galaxy are the USL's most accurate passers, and you'd believe it watching them bear the brunt of Monterey's press this weekend. My blurbs on this team almost always turn into Liam Doyle love, but he and Jalen Neal are endlessly composed at back and set the tone for a patient, low-risk approach that can rapidly ramp up. Los Angeles avoided turnovers and did alright, but the pivot of Carlos Harvey and Adrian G0nzalez struggled to link this team's creators against a reactive 4-4-1-1. There were a few Remi Cabral-driven chances resulting from closing that proved too audacious, but I could've gone for more line-breaking or direct lumping in defense to change things up for a team that needs three points in matches like the Monterey game. Still, Preston Judd carried the ball the entire length of the pitch off a defensive set piece to get Tsubasa Endoh (11 goals in 28 USL Championship matches with Toronto) his debut goal, and the team never looked back before getting Endoh a second. End-to-end dribbling by a low-touch poacher does not an offense make, but that diversity in style is key to any good side.
16.) MONTEREY: I've been embarrassingly hyped to see a Gleadle-Boone-Dawkins attacking trio for this team, but my main takeaway as ever was how organized that trio looked in a defensive sense. Simon Dawkins is in the 3rd percentile for defensive actions, yet his deep support and smart positioning are vital. Gleadle brings endless energy as an annoying, centrally-placed #10, something surprising from an ex-fullback. Boone, meanwhile, can push narrow to allow for Morey Doner overlaps while getting wildly high in the press thanks to his elite physical profile. That speed and intelligence really challenged a technical Galaxy side this Saturday, limiting what their possessive style could do. Still, Monterey lacked punch and cohesion in their own right, and a high-tempo break off of a corner left the team shapeless and vulnerable to give up an all-important goal. Frank Yallop's side is now eight points back of the playoff line with two games in hand, but there's a lot of distance to cover in vanishingly few games, and this offense is still dead last in the USL Championship for expected goals.
17.) RIO GRANDE VALLEY: The lineup sheet for the Toros this week didn't feature a true striker, and that gambit paid dividends against a ten-man Las Vegas side. I do want to credit this regime for bringing back Jonas Fjeldberg, whose narrowness was incredibly challenged for the Lights, and Christian Pinzon, someone I've praised again and again and who scored the opener in Nevada. On that first goal, #29 got in over the top of a disciplined, deep line because of the gravity of Fjeldberg and the rest of the attacking foursome in the hole. A fluid, all-hands-on-deck might be the solution for a team that hasn't ever settled on a number nine, as much as I love Frank Lopez and think the spot should be his.
Mixed Bag
18.) ORANGE COUNTY: At long last, an Iloski-Iloski duo in the lineup for Richard Chaplow and company! The elder Brian rated in the 80th percentile or so for expected assists and foul-drawing in 2021, and he proved eminently switchable on the left-center of the midfield alongside Seth Casiple in attack. Spare a thought for the OCSC side that starred these two from opening kick in the Spring. Still, Casiple, Iloski, and left-back Alex Villanueva were pressed into oblivion and showed their lack of pace in recovering on the opening concession out of the 4-4-2. Orange County is smart and well-shaped, but they don't have the legs in transition or off of turnovers. The same issue recurred a few times, and the slow back line doomed the side on Tampa Bay's second goal as well. A shutdown re-run of 2021's USL Cup, this wasn't. Still, I should put in a good word for a second-half change that moved Orange County into a 4-3-3 to match Tampa up front and overpower their pivot. It earned the penalty and made a game of what could've been a rout.
19.) LAS VEGAS: Out of the gates, Las Vegas' 4-4-1-1 defense was as high-flying and pesky as ever, and I liked the side-to-side support Christian Torres gave in the #10 spot. Still, maybe the team was too high-flying after an early red card derailed that tight defensive shape. The loss of a man necessitated a 4-4-1 of sorts, but players felt a need to close much to high to compensate for the lost presser, and holes emerged rapidly. My playoff odds still fancy the Lights, and spending 75 minutes with less players is a mulligan, but reduced Trejo time and a 3-0 chastening at the hands of a bad Rio Grande Valley attack might just be the canary in the coal mine.
20.) OAKLAND: Under Noah Delgado, the Roots retained their well-worn 3-4-2-1 shape marked by the most aggressive wingbacks in the league in a midweek bout. Wisely, Delgado pushed the midfield pivot high in the press to meet San Diego's build. He kept the wingbacks noticeably low, inviting them to overlap late after the opposite defense drew narrow. That pattern won Juan Azocar (89th percentile Goals Above Replacement, seven goals) the opening Roots goal and caused the Loyal trouble all night. Say what you will about, uh, that whole coaching team, but this team has endless heart.
I should note how essential Emrah Klimenta is at this point. Oakland lives and dies by their high defensive line, which is often caught out at the worst moments. Still, Klimenta is a star. His defensive numbers are pedestrian, but he rates around the 80th percentile for passes per match and expected goals and assists. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better distributor or more comfortable handler at the centerback spot, and that efficacy in attack paid off in the build to that Azocar strike on Wednesday.
Saturday started worse, as the high-closing back line struggled to position itself against Sacramento's front three and Rodrigo Lopez specifically. That dynamic powered a few chances for the hosts early, and it led to an exemplary mistake that caught the Roots out and conceded a foul to an overlapping wingback. Meanwhile, the Republic moved into a deep defensive 5-4-1 that pinned itself low on the flanks, handicapping the efficacy of Azocar and Rito. Three points out of six in a San Diego-Sacramento back-to-back isn't bad, but I wanted more from this Oakland side on Saturday.
21.) INDY: Say what you will about the results, but the Eleven finally feel like they have a consistent system. The midfield diamond, long awaited, is here, and there's a relative stasis within the personnel choices as well. Still, there's work to be done. I think Sam Brown is going to be a great depth piece, but he can't match the metronomic example of Richie Ryan (78th percentile pass volume last season; literally never misfires). Alongside, Bryan Rebellon and Neveal Hackshaw fit better as shuttlers and shithousers and incisive threaders. Playing San Antonio and that wicked press naturally accentuates such weaknesses, especially when they play with a pure trio in the middle.
Boy, though, that Robby Dambrot goal was something. San Antonio's vulnerability comes when they push too high on the wings and leave themselves unshielded, and Dambrot perfectly timed a chip into the channel and an ensuing underlap to take advantage. That's the sort of verve and electricity from a defender that can solve issues in progression. He mostly took a deep position afterwards, and Indy's low-seated defensive line was a masterstroke that protected a slow centerback pair against one of the league's fiercest, quickest attacks. This is exactly what the Boys in Blue needed.
22.) HARTFORD: Welcome in, Tab Ramos! I noted it on Twitter when his hiring was announced, but Ramos' adherence to a 4-3-3 with high pressure and overlapping fullbacks is a one-to-one match for the style that Hartford employs right now. What's more, Ramos never successfully integrated that identity in Houston, where his sides always finished at the bottom of the table. Still, I like the mood for everything Ramos brings off the pitch. This is a manager who has a decade of national team experience and deep ties to MLS. Even if he runs back a mediocre system, Ramos will be able to recruit in a way that Hartford has never seen. Additionally, he'll be nothing but a boon for player development and the Hartford youth apparatus. Tactics aren't everything, and that's why I think Tab Ramos will succeed.
In the first half of the side's Wednesday visit to Tulsa, Luka Prpa absolutely shone. The team's high fullbacks drew the wingbacks out, and the shape of the opposition press opened up Prpa in the middle. The ex-Toro has been a jack-of-all-trades sort by the numbers, but I fancy him as a dribbler and ball carrier, albeit one with limited vision and defensive steel. He showed the passing upside, dropping in between the Tulsa attacking mids, turning on a dime, and loosing Hartford's high wingers with a head of steam. It's the sort of performance that makes you wonder whether a player like Prpa - a Dynamo draft pick under Ramos - has a role next year.
Down Bad
23.) PHOENIX: With James Musa, Marcus Ferkranus, and Joey Farrell named in the starting eleven, I was wildly hopeful Juan Guerra would immediately launch Phoenix into a high-flying 3-4-2-1 marked by insane wingback play. Not so. Ferkranus sat low as a fullback to match the staid Darnell King in a boilerplate 4-4-2. Describing King as "staid" might be generous, though his mediocre performance was largely due to Arturo Rodriguez's lacking tracking on the right wing and Aaron Gomez being great at soccer. Still, to see fullback issues lead to the first Guerra-era concession was positively karmic if you're a Rick Schantz fan.
When do we have a discussion about Musa and Farrell? I blame the fullbacks all the time, but at some point the men in the middle need to answer for Phoenix's woes. Musa rates in the 37th percentile for Goals Above Replacement, and his teammate is subpar for tackle win rate and defensive actions per foul. Neither has shown any sense for space or intervention in 2022, nor has either been as effective on set pieces as in the past. Maybe I'm overly harsh, but this team just doesn't have it.
24.) CHARLESTON: I've focused on the midfield a lot lately in thinking and writing about the Battery, but the best moments in that area come from Avionne Flanagan, a winger. Every time he tucks narrow to create a threesome, good things happen. Opposing defenses don't quite know how to position themselves given his footedness, and the loanee adds steel going the other way. His depth also gives Augustine Williams more room to run into. Still, Detroit began to overload the middle with centerback activity in the second half and push their central midfielders ever higher. This let them generate breaks, where Antoine Hoppenot's wide positioning stretched the always-sloppy Battery back three. I've been harsh on that trio being too slow, but playing two fullbacks and a substitute-level player as your defensive core isn't the answer. Things really collapsed as this one wore on, and even a 3-5-2 shape change didn't bear any fruit for a team that can never quite retain form.
25.) LOUDOUN: I might just be behind, but when did Jacob Greene switch to "Jacob" on the back of his kit? I remember Dele Alli doing much the same over in England for family reasons, but this sort of thing always interests me. On the pitch, I liked a lot of what an effective 4-4-2 did for Loudoun in defense. Carson vom Steeg was especially impressive next to Jalen Robinson, and Gaoussou Samake put in a shift recovering deep in defense against a wing-centric Tulsa side. Still, waves of late runners in the adjusted 4-2-4 for the opposition proved overbearing at the death, and Greene failed to collapse into the center of the box to accommodate. I love Greene, but his awareness can lack. You expect that from someone his age, but my expectations are sky high.
26.) NEW YORK: Jeremy Rafanello's move to Philly this week deserves a note. Rafanello had bounced from the Union youth ranks to Indy Eleven and the Red Bulls system before circling back to the cheesesteak capital of the world. The player in question is an attacking midfielder or second striker strong across the attacking band. He's good with the ball at his feet, but he rarely looks up to pass - this is one of the most willing shooters in the USL, no matter the scenario. Indeed, Rafanello ranked in the 95th percentile for shot attempts. His dribbling and nascent creation will play better off of MLS teammates in my estimation.
Erick Ruiz, a 17-year-old academy stud, got his first start for the side on Saturday. The Baby Bulls adopted a true 4-4-2 too loosely match what Birmingham brings to the table, and Ruiz sat in the pivot of it rocking a #92 kit. The basic gambit was to let the two forwards press without end, compact back into two low lines of four, and pray that you could catch the Legion out with a long ball. The breakthrough actually came through a controlled transition move past an ill-considered Legion lineup; Zach ryan kind of rocks. While ultimately an approach with mixed success, the overall strategy wasn't too poorly conceived for a side that hardly ever repeats more than, like, half a lineup. And hey, love seeing guys like Ruiz that could be future stars get a chance to prove themselves!
27.) ATLANTA: Ajani Fortune is bang average by almost every statistic down to a 56th percentile Goals Above Replacement, but attaining consistent captaincy at age 19 is nothing to scoff at, and you get moments from #8 that should excite every viewer. More often than not, Atlanta plays a two-man midfield that can't help but be overwhelmed; Fortune shows enough poise at times to hold down the fort, and he did so nicely against Pittsburgh this Saturday. The younger brother of ex-North Carolina stud Dre Fortune even got a nice assist to equalize mid-match. Still, he couldn't bear the brunt of an all-out central rush on the first opposing goal, and classic centerback hilarity did no one any favors. This team's defending is just a drag on all the small bright spots, and 20th-placed Goals Saved Above Average means that there's a dearth of wonder-saves to keep the ship afloat.
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