There are twenty-seven teams in the USL, I've ranked them all, and I have no creativity: thus, a column name was born. These are my mostly-weekly power rankings featuring write-ups and snide remarks on whichever clubs capture my sprit. If you want more, make sure to check out:
The USL Show, as always. We're live on Tuesdays at 9:00 Eastern and in your podcast queues shortly thereafter. The USL Tactics show is there as well.
My two articles from this week, one on Solomon Asante's potential impact in Indy and another on El Paso's defense.
But without further ado...
Title Contenders
1.) LOUISVILLE: Sean Totsch taking the penalty against San Diego is the swaggiest thing I've seen this week. That said, his back three compatriots were a bit unconvincing in Southern California, giving up big gaps in the channels when the Loyal went long. I'm picking nits. This team is undeniably number one right now, and the pseudo-5-4-1 was great in that it gave a numerical edge against SDL's forwards while allowing Ownby and Gonzalez to do their usual pressing thing against buildup. Still, it can't be all positive all the time, try as I might.
2.) SAN ANTONIO: I often label teams as "bend-don't-break" in a somewhat negative manner, but it's absolutely a positive for San Antonio. This is a side that lures you in, gives you absolutely nothing in and around goal, and then counters with alacrity. The eleven is almost modular at this point; you can plug and play any number of personnel and not suffer a decline. Elliot Collier looks unreal so far, surprisingly nimble in that big frame. Jordan Farr is a stud in goal, surprising no Indy fans. I could go on, but suffice to say that this team is rolling right now.
3.) COLORADO SPRINGS: The Switchbacks looked completely fine against Memphis but fall because they finally dropped points. This kind of thing happens; Memphis isn't bad, and finishing can't always come good. That said, their "empty bucket" two-man midfield in build might be something that can be exposed.
4.) TAMPA: Tampa rolled out a completely mediocre (well, by Tampa standards…) eleven against a legit Tulsa team and scored after, like, ten seconds flat. They targeted the midfield split and high fullbacks that so define Tulsa without any mercy. They’re going to be okay.
5.) SACRAMENTO: I know he gave up the penalty this weekend, but man is Jack Gurr good. He was in the 75th percentile for GAR in 2020, and he sits in the 80th in 2022, but it's the shit-housing tackling, bursts of pace, and testing long balls that really impress me beyond the stat sheet.
6.) SAN DIEGO: An Alejandro Guido injury and late chaos against Oakland midweek were a setback, and then Landon Donovan started, like, five centerbacks in various spots against Louisville. Still, you have to worry about the defensive solidity at a certain point amidst the rotation. Shifting from an attacking back three to a defending back four requires a high level of communication and chemistry; the Loyal skirt those needs with pure offense a lot of the time, but can that persist?
7.) PITTSBURGH: Las Vegas bites everybody, but I thought their approach exposed a rare Pittsburgh weakness in regard to those marauding wide centerbacks. This team is a juggernaut, but even Bob Lilley has to leave himself vulnerable at times. The match was more of a fluke than anything, honestly. Unfortunate substitution patterns and a distant trip still saw the Riverhounds double Vegas for shots and shots on target.
8.) PHOENIX: Ben Lundt, huh? Amidst another match of mediocre defending, albeit enough to win the day, Lundt stood on his head in goal and willed Phoenix to the three points. I'm adamant now that they aren't the juggernaut of years past, but getting that level of goalkeeping on a week-to-week basis means that the Rising are firmly in the mix.
In the Mix
9.) DETROIT: Stop me if you've heard this before: Detroit won a game on the strength of second-half adjustments. This time, it was the decision to tuck Rhys Williams narrower and allow for a greater degree of central interchange. DCFC's defense is top ten by my xG data, but they're underwater in terms of overall differential and that gives me pause, but how can you argue with the results right now? It helps that Nate Steinwascher is in the 90th percentile or better for GSAA and GAR.
10.) MIAMI: Miami cleanly returned to the back four, and Florian Valot showed himself to be essential yet again. Restored to the #10 spot from a defensive midfield role, he drifted from touchline to touchline in order to stretch Hartford's narrow midfield three. How good has he been?
11.) NEW MEXICO: I have to leave New Mexico as they are given the loss, but I'm pretty comfortable asserting that they outplayed Phoenix. Chris Wehan's variable height in the midfield and wingback brilliance let them get chances, but it just wasn't enough to get over the line. That latter inability to finish would be a problem for most teams, but it feels aberrative here. Brett, Wehan, and eventually Moreno are good enough finishers that I'm buying in.
12.) TULSA: Rodrigo Da Costa is in the upper echelon of the MVP race for me, but sliding him into a full-blown central midfield role in Tampa was a misfire. Yeah, it theoretically let Obinwa play holder to support against the Rowdies' front three, but it also limited Da Costa's attacking brilliance, and his getting sucked in was huge on the opening concession.
13.) MEMPHIS: Memphis is one of those weird teams this season. One week, they're feckless and then they beat Colorado Springs, albeit in a kinda fluky manner. Patrick Seagrist (90th percentile GAR, defensive actions) was a complete stud getting down the flank against Macca King and Malik Johnson, and that Aaron Malloy goal just banged.
14.) EL PASO: My playoff odds finally turned on El Paso this week, dropping them below 20%. That said, I'm still sold that they're in it. The defense looked improved yet again against San Antonio, wholly more organized. Luna can still drive an offense single-handedly as well. Yeah, the results need to come, but we're just about one-fifth into the campaign. A lot is going to change.
15.) ORANGE COUNTY: Sean Okoli is in the 99th percentile for xG, xG per shot, and conversion rate by my metrics. Read the room.
16.) LAS VEGAS: This team is weird, and I don't get it. They're statistically average in, like, every category except clearances, signifying how they sit deep, slap you in the face with ceaseless defensive swarming, and nab silly counterattacking goals.
17.) BIRMINGHAM: This Legion side just feels snakebit in a major way at the moment. They're top ten by my back-of-napkin xG differential, and their performances reflect that. The system is solid, Tom Soehn's adjustments are usually well-considered, and nothing has come good yet. I do sense a bit of stasis and a lack of great chances, but that doesn't explain the dry scoring completely. All of this rambling is to say that I'm still banking on regression to the mean; it's early.
18.) OAKLAND: Jose Hernandez was sublime midweek, closing high out of the central midfield versus San Diego and helping to earn a hectic draw. Meanwhile, that 5-4-1 approach - more of a 5-2-2-1, really - tucked its wingers into the center to skirt Loudoun's fullbacks and just dominated the Virginian visitors at the weekend. This team is just close, ya know? They're a piece short of contending, but I like everything I'm seeing in terms of process.
19.) INDY: Solomon Asante is the headline-grabber here, but the Atlanta match was another light setback. The diamond looks good for long stretches and then just gives up control in an instant; sloppy defending and bad concessions have followed as a rule. They’re also last in xG creation. Still, you get those channel runs from Ingram and Law that are just titillating. I can't wait to see this side in two months.
Down Bad
20.) RIO GRANDE VALLEY: Wilmer Cabrera's team sits at 0% in my playoff odds somehow, and I hate it. I think I'm Jekyll-and-Hyde on the Toros more than any other USL side; some weeks, they're feckless in the middle and sloppy at back, and then they move to a back three, leverage a dynamic strike duo, and take care of business against New York. I kinda hate the goalie split? In any event, Wahab Ackwei has been great at back in that shifty defensive line.
21.) LOS ANGELES: In two of his last three seasons, Michael Salazar has benn in the 77th percentile or better for GAR, and he showed why against Monterey. The attacking band with him, Williams, and Dunbar was so mobile and tore through the feeble opposing 4-4-2 shape. Bring Preston Judd into the Salazar-led mix for the final half hour, and you've got a stew cooking.
22.) LOUDOUN: If you isolate this week on its own, Loudoun is generating about 0.6 xG per game. That, uh, won't get it done. Teams have figured out how to show Sami Guediri onto his weaker side while packing the middle against direct balls into the channels, and Loudoun is suffering for it.
23.) HARTFORD: Danny Barrera is sub-average for GAR right now, and he's in the bottom quarter of all players for forward passing. That's unacceptable. Hartford is employing Barrera as an industrious type of shuttler in their three-man midfield, but he needs freedom to roam and create. I'd put him as a forward in a front two next to a hold-up type or poacher, but I'm not Harry Watling.
24.) NEW YORK: New York looked largely fine against RGV, and they're maybe the last team over the Mendoza Line in the league by my reckoning. The Sserwadda-Murphy-Rafanello triumvirate looked positively spicy at times in the midfield, but this team is a far cry from the heights of Red Bulls past. I wish there was an Omar Sowe in this squad to open up the final third.
25.) ATLANTA: Jackson Conway is a really fun watch, but he's best deployed playing off of a center forward if you actually want to win soccer matches. He obviously had that player-of-the-week effort early this year, but you lose a presence in the box with his midfield roaming. He has his moments nonetheless; just check that goal against the Eleven.
26.) MONTEREY: Frank Yallop's side is tied with Indy for the worst attack in the USL by xG, but I thought they looked lively in Los Angeles. Simon Dawkins moved well off of Conneh's hold-up, and the switch to put Chase Boone wide was a good one. Boone is going to drift out there to interchange anyway, so cut out the middle man and preserve a presence in the middle.
27.) CHARLESTON: Charleston actually rose in my playoff odds this week? From 0% to 1%, but still. They're last in xG differential by my reckoning. Augustine Williams and Aidan Apodaca are both individually in the 80th percentile or better there, but no one in this side even cracks the top quarter for GAR.
That's all, folks. I'll be back midweek with the second edition of Film School, and keep up with my match thoughts on Twitter until then.