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But without further ado...
Title Contenders
1.) SAN ANTONIO: Bye for San Antonio, and there wasn't a circumstance in the world that could've displaced them from the top spot with that in mind. Something I've been wondering about is how Alen Marcina lines up this squad come playoff time. What's the best eleven here? You could run with three pure strikers against a given defense, put PC or Connor Maloney at any spot on the pitch, and choose between a stable of great centerbacks. This is an excellent problem to have, and I don't pretend to know the answer.
2.) LOUISVILLE: Louisville had a light workload in store with a matchup against New York on the cards, but they went with a strong lineup featuring Ray Serrano on the right nonetheless. Serrano's appearance was necessitated by adjustments stemming from forward-line injuries, but he's still so darn bright. Speaking of those adjustments, Brian Ownby got his fourth goal of the year while serving as the emergency striker. He and the right-winger paired with Enoch Mushagalusa to press in one of the more out-and-out 4-3-3s we've seen from Louisville, and Ownby often looked like a false nine. His depth effectively denied the middle for New York, and it leveraged the searing pace of both wing men.
The effect deepened in the second half, as #10 noticeably became more of a creator. He still would stretch the Red Bulls’ defense at times, but the runs were distractions more than threats a lot of the time. Paired with Mushagalusa’s pace and a much more direct passing game, Louisville feasted against the opposing high line. Not the most imposing opponent, but the process behind the win was heartening.
3.) TAMPA BAY: I like seeing Thomas Vancaeyezeele get time for Tampa Bay, and he slid comfortably into the left side of the defense against Hartford. I keep calling the shape a 4-2-3-1, but it's so fluid, much to the Rowdies' benefit. For instance, you could see Laurence Wyke slide narrow as Sebastian Dalgaard become a wingback; you're looking at the classic three-at-the-back there, essentially. Still, Leo Fernandes might rise next to the striker to create a 4-4-2. That flexibility bolsters the dynamite Lewis Hilton-Yann Ekra pair, allowing them to press with fervor. Both are masters of angling their bodies to deny lanes even when they're in one-on-ones.
I'm fawning at this point, and there can be issues. On Hartford's first goal on Saturday, offensive aggression left the defense vulnerable on the break. The second effort was more damning. Tampa Bay conceded acres of space between lines as Hartford looked direct, and that was a result of the fluidity that I've been so praiseful toward. Things can be a work in progress, but it just feels like this side is on the path towards impenetrability; 85 minutes a game tend to show it.
Playoff Locks
4.) MEMPHIS: Memphis' 4-2-3-1 was as solid as ever despite some changes as Phoenix came to town, and Chris Allan was an inspired and steely choice to fill in as the number ten. He was immense against Aodhan Quinn, essentially man marking the stalwart all-leaguer. Pair that with Leston Paul's intensity, and this side was so hard to break down. Going the other way, Phillip Goodrum's movement as a roving forward - particularly in his left-wing linkage with Jeremy Kelly - is just undeniable.
5.) SAN DIEGO: Kyle Adams got a goal against the Switchbacks on a thrilling top-of-the-table Monday match, but that's just the cherry on top of a stellar defensive year for the ex-Monarchs man. He's in the 80th percentile or better for total defensive actions, aerial wins, and pass completions. What impressed me the most against Colorado Springs was his rotation at back. He'd slide left to cover for Elijah Martin when need be or stand firm in the middle while his side was under fire. I know I harp on defensive lapses for the Loyal, but that increasingly feels like a bygone early-season woe now that Adams and Stoneman have settled as a pair at back. There's a reason I headlined last week's ranking by naming San Diego a title contender.
The Galaxy match was a setback to be sure, albeit one with a major red-card caveat. San Diego controlled the early stages of the match, and Nick Moon was dominant on his side's left, leveraging that back-three-turned-back-four Galaxy style so reminiscent of this Loyal team. A good bit of possession and movement created the nightmare handball chance, and the game broke from there, but I don't think it should be read into all that closely. Still, might a 5-0 drubbing hint at mentality issues?
6.) EL PASO: Matt Bahner took back the right-back mantle as the imposing Switchbacks came to battle, and El Paso held firm in a manner that opened up the opposition. You have to give it to Evan Newton, who's been a rock all season and bore the brunt of tremendous pressure this weekend. When he held, El Paso was able to feed Dylan Mares in the middle and work past a thin Switchbacks midfield. That's where the fun began. Eder Borelli tended to take deep positions in his movement, allowing him to find pockets in the half space that let him link with touchline-hugging Nick Hinds or whip in assists for himself; see the opener for a shining example. This team needs reinforcements, but the talent is ridiculous in terms of the players that are involved right now, and the wholehearted tracking that won the Locomotive the three points against the Switchbacks must be lauded.
7.) PITTSBURGH: Midweek, Dane Kelly got his first start since early June, but the back three struggled to do much in the opening stages against Indy Eleven. The guests pressed in a manner expressly intended to deny the middle, and Pittsburgh couldn't generate enough action through Alex Dixon and Luke Biasi on the flanks to get early chances. Kelly didn't leave much of a mark, and I'm starting to see why Albert Dikwa's energy has been preferred at the starting number nine spot.
Dixon got a rest as Jesse Williams entered the back three for the weekend. Toby Sims and Nathan Dossantos were the wingbacks, and I really liked the positivity they brought in the press. Dossantos, especially, was heady against the unbalanced, higher right back for Miami, while Sims showed discretion in pressing up on the lower left. Both also showed really quality helping to tuck inside against the dangerous Williams-Akinyode pivot on the other side. Finally, it feels like Pittsburgh have their style this season, and Bob Lilley's personnel choices feel intentional within it. An early-season aura of experimentation is no more, and the East may need to be on the look-out.
8.) BIRMINGHAM: It was finally Edi Horvat time at striker as the Legion headed to Atlanta on Wednesday, and he was solid at the tip of a defensive 4-1-4-1 or 4-2-3-1. The slight shape change was smart against Two-nited's back three, letting the speedy Horvat roam and hassle while the beefier attacking midfield line had extra bodies to cut off the all-important Robbie Mertz. Atlanta found a number of looks through their breakneck counters past Jonathan Dean's high positioning, but the first goal saw Dean deep, drawing a rival wingback up the pitch. That gave Marlon a chance to run at a defender one-on-one, which might as well be a guaranteed assist. Moments of brilliance like the Marlon-to-Martinez sequence set this Legion team apart when they're clicking.
Still, Birmingham moved back into their usual 4-2-4 as their lead hung on, and Atlanta got frisky. The channels were a shade more open, and the Legion's defensive line gradually came high. Mistakes led to an equalizer before Zach Herivaux absolutely snapped to generate a winner.
The shape looked positively 2-4-4-ish at times against Charleston, with Dean starring as a presser and forward runner in turn. Matching the two-forward look of the Battery, Birmingham pressed with great intensity, turning turnovers into central drives through Herivaux and company. I loved the Enzo Martinez-Juan Agudelo chemistry up top; their movement was lovely, so varied and dynamic.
9.) SACRAMENTO: Maalique Foster got starting minutes at striker for Sacramento, and his pairing with Douglas Martinez and Rodrigo Lopez in the forward line was genuinely liberating for the Republic. Oakland's hard press meant that the hosts could get out in transition, and Foster made it an imperative to occupy the central channel and occupy the back three. Meanwhile, Lopez was able to drop deeper to find the ball, and Martinez's stunning athleticism was freed in a wider-roving, more mobile role. #42 didn't have to be the guy in the box, and he was better off for it. That Roots pressure produced a handful of half-chances, but the back three - still featuring Duke Lacroix as a bandage - was a problem on the left. Too often, Lacroix didn’t know how to space himself relative to Lee Desmond in the middle, and Damia Viader’s tracking was inconsistent against Oakland’s overloads. I’m loathe to blame a three-goals-against performance on one absence, but the knock-on effect of losing Conor Donovan seems big.
10.) COLORADO SPRINGS: Jeff Caldwell was back in net for the Switchbacks on Independence Day as the side capped off a stretch of four games in eleven days. Their press was a shade less aggressive than normal, sitting back and staying in a flatter 4-2-4 shape to deny San Diego's back three and shifty midfield. When the opposition went down to ten men, the Switchbacks turned up the heat and reprised their trademark aggression, a choice that got them a tying goal but bit back on the game-winning Loyal break. It's a bit unlucky to be sure, and the tired legs matter, but this side's defense had given up nine goals in five games heading into the weekend El Paso matchup; that mark would rank 21st in the USL.
There are teams where Brendan Burke's fluid, hard-nosed system leaves holes. When you press in a 4-2-4 shape that can invert and look like a 2-4-4, you have to stay solid in the middle or face the consequences. Lose focus, leave a gap behind your central midfielders, and suddenly an opponent is bearing down on just a handful of defenders. We've seen too much of that lately in the shadow of the Rockies.
El Paso found an occasional bit of joy in such a context, especially down the Switchback's right side, but that speaks more to Eder Borelli's quality than any issues from Malik Johnson. More often than not, the gambits innate to the 4-2-4 paid off for Colorado Springs, and Elvis Amoh's interchange and combination within the front line was immensely challenging for the opposition. Still chances aren't wins, and this team is falling on the wrong side of that calculus too often.
11.) DETROIT: Brad Dunwell finally got a full start after a long injury fueled-absence as Detroit took on Hartford at midweek, and he looked safe and solid in the middle, but Pato stole the show for me. Yeah, he got the first goal, but his movement all night long was essential in attack. When you have someone with his frame barreling into the channels, it naturally creates space. Le Rouge looked worn-down as the match wore on, and Hartford asserted themselves in the midfield in the second half. It wasn't a bad performance, and Maxi Rodriguez was bright as a substitute (I mean, duh), but the depth issue for this expansion roster is showing.
Still, the week-to-week core of this team has carried Le Rouge to a top-four-adjacent season for a reason. Pato's linemates, Antoine Hoppenot and Connor Rutz, were vital to the opener for Detroit as they traveled to Indy on Saturday, and it was such an emblematic goal for this club. Watch it back: pivot counterpressure wins possession, wide interplay between Hoppenot and a wingback frees a cross, and Rutz is money from there. Pressure, direct passing, clinical finishing - that's what Detroit is about. From then on, the central midfield utterly denied the Eleven in the middle, and the side saw out a good 1-0 road win. It’s what you expect from a playoff lock.
12.) LOS ANGELES: I know that the Galaxy were up a man for the majority of the match, but they absolutely ran rampant with that edge. They did so against a San Diego team in a deep 4-4-1 shape, a look that's not dissimilar from the usual 4-4-2; how often is that extra striker really tracking back?
If you just limit things to the even-strength stretch, then Los Angeles still deserves credit. Ponder the sequence leading to the game-changing red. The Galaxy are patient and ground-based in possession, pushing up on the right with a defender pushing high. Cameron Dunbar - the unsung workhorse in this side - collects, and the move is rapid-fire from there against rotation, featuring a brilliant give-and-go from Josh Drack. It's that tempo, technicality, and systematic comfort that make this a genuinely good side.
13.) NEW MEXICO: There's an obvious distinction in New Mexico's minute-to-minute efficacy right now, and it wholly depends on the intensity of this side's press. When Christian Nava, Daniel Bruce, and the like are getting high and trusting their defense to get stops if things go awry, New Mexico creates chances on the break. However, this side is eminently vulnerable when they're passive. Too often, the latter case has ruled the day, but Zach Prince wisely turned up the heat against Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday, even with a rotated lineup without Chris Wehan.
Saturday saw New Mexico look sharp against the same opponent, even amidst some truly apocalyptic weather to start the match. I though the side did well pursuing space down the channels beyond those RGV fullbacks, thereby widening their attack to great effect. At back, Alexis Souahy, a veritable USL legend, got a rare start, looking solid in the process. New Mexico shelled up late in the game, and the Suggs-Bruce wingback tandem struggled to position themselves, constantly allowing deep crosses that ultimately led to the equalizer. Tough result, and it speaks to some recurring issues, but I generally liked Rio Grande Valley week from New Mexico’s perspective.
Outside Shots
14.) LAS VEGAS: The Lights are in a bit of an interesting spot as we hit midseason. My playoff model has them with about a 25% chance of getting into the postseason mix, and they're stable in the real table. That said, so much of Las Vegas' potential rests on Danny Trejo staying with this side, and there's no guarantee of that happening with LAFC looming. Still, I love the defense and midfield here. I published a list of the top players in the USL by my Goals Above Replacement metric this week, and defender Morten Bjorshol appeared alongside midfielder Daniel Crisostomo in the top ten. Fantastic stuff, and it may hint that Trejo is a shade less vital than I'm thinking.
15.) RIO GRANDE VALLEY: When you think about Rio Grande Valley's attack, two things should come to mind: aggressive fullback play and joy off of turnovers. The latter looks are generated through hard pressure in the 4-1-4-1 or 4-3-3, and Wednesday's matchup in New Mexico saw the opposition too technical and stable to cede such chances. Meanwhile, the narrow diamond for that same opponent spread and shifted as the game wore on to deny the fullbacks. The Toros are simply fantastic from a defensive angle right now, but they need consistent offense that doesn't depend on sloppiness or wide overreaction.
Maybe Akeem Ward, a fullback added from Oakland, can be a difference-maker? His influence would've been a boon in the rematch with New Mexico at the weekend, where the Toros struggled mightily in build once again. Late in the game, Ricky Ruiz and Isidro Martinez were liberated to hug as close to the touchline as possible and switch across the pitch. This doubled up with the fullback play that powers RGV to catch New Mexico unprepared, and a slew of crosses earned from the overloads got the Toros a result. Is this team a playoff side? It’s tough to argue so in a stacked West, but the process is still solid.
16.) MIAMI: First off, shout out to Connor Sparrow, the only goalkeeper in the top 20 of my Goals Above Replacement player rankings at the moment. The defense and midfield have been good in front of him, but no one for Miami FC did much creating going the other way against a rising Riverhounds side. Anthony Pulis has employed a 4-2-3-1 as of late, a shape that gives you three bodies in the middle. Pittsburgh clogged build into that area and through players like Speedy Williams and Joshua Perez with their 3-4-2-1 shape, a look featuring narrow wingbacks that could basically generate six-on-three shutdowns. Florian Valot could've helped from deep, in my opinion, but this side was lacking in terms of passing tempo and movement. I feel like Miami has the inside track to the last Eastern playoff spot, but they have to look sharper.
17.) OAKLAND: The Roots made the short trip to Sacramento and came out hot, pressing high and hard. What they lacked was discipline. Juan Guerra's marauding wingbacks were often caught on an island, too advanced to mark Douglas Martinez's forays to the touchline yet too passive while shadowing their Sacramento peers to operate effectively in attack. In build, that left the Roots isolated and susceptible to the press; Sacramento's first goal proved as much. Still, there were moments. Edgardo Rito grew into the match, and the choice to play Juan Carlos Azocar in attack was inspired. Passing patterns grew assured and confident whenever Emrah Klimenta and Alejandro Fuenmayor got involved, and that pair respectively dribbled and switch play to the Sacramento left to great effect. I don’t know what the ultimate balance is for Oakland, but it’s just that much too up-and-down right now.
18.) MONTEREY: The late-week addition of Hunter Gorskie was an interesting one for Monterey. I love the Kai Greene-Hugh Roberts pair in defense, but they struggle to stay healthy, and this side isn't overly deep at centerback. Gorskie also is capable at the fullback spots, and I think he'll get along nicely as a jack-of-all-trades, fill-in type. He put up a 47th percentile GAR in San Antonio in 2020, indicative of an average player.
Against Orange County, the hosts largely controlled play from the get-go, but Monterey looked like they didn't have a need for Gorskie. Yeah, they sat off the ball, but their 4-4-2 shape did very, very well in pinching against OCSC's sole offensive weapon in Milan Iloski's roving movement. What's more, Adrian Rebollar was a complete and utter annoyance roving as a number ten in the press. That solidity and spunk let Monterey go direct and get a wonder-goal through Chase Boone - a familiar tact at this point. It isn't exactly pretty, but Frank Yallop's crew can keep matches close and scrape by with exceptional moments like that Boone goal.
19.) TULSA: Sean Lewis, a stalwart for this organization, was sent packing in a trade with Indy for Noah Powder at midweek. Austin Wormell, one of the breakout stars of the USL season to this point in time, had stolen Lewis' job and badly one-upped his numbers, so it was smart of Tulsa to see what they can get in return for him. Powder, a Trinidadian international, is high-upside. I like him as a stable defensive presence with a keen eye for overlapping and good passing vision, and his best asset is flank-to-flank versatility that lets him slot into a fullback or central-midfield role. He's a good get in the wake of Jorge Corrales' injury.
Tulsa looked sharp in those potential Powder points against Atlanta, pressing aggressively whenever the Peach State opposition enacted their high-tempo, direct style. Dario Suarez and Rodrigo Da Costa were huge as the wingers in a sort of 3-4-3 or 5-2-3 look, taking up positions and angles that let them close on Atlanta's ball-carrying defenders while employing their press shadows to deny the all-important Atlanta fullbacks.
After the red card, Petar Cuic came on to own the midfield in an offensive 4-1-4 shape. Brian Brown was impactful as substitute, amplifying a lump-it-up approach with excellent holding. That anchoring presence let Tulsa earn attacking territory, and they counterpressed nicely from there to keep the ball and force mistakes from a raw Atlanta team. You saw that exact pattern play out on the winner. Great heart from a side that's regaining their early-year form.
20.) ATLANTA: The Raimar-Matheus-Conway-Trager-Mejia quintet was locked and loaded for Wednesday's Birmingham game, and they found a handful of looks when they worked past the visiting side's high right. Still, their dynamic attacking left holes, and you saw that come to bear on the opening Legion goal. Raimar is too high, allowing for a one-on-one against Atlanta's wide centerback. Two Legion forwards run in against the other two defenders, and it's suddenly a deficit thanks to the lazy tracking. There has to be balance for this Atlanta squad.
At the weekend, Matheus dropped out of the lineup, and the shape was a purer 3-5-2. Tulsa did well to deny wide build with a smart shape, and this side ran into similar Raimar issues, deepened again by a disconnected defense. Nonetheless, Atlanta is a tier above the miserable bottom of the East, and they get there in style.
21.) HARTFORD: Hartford looked a class below Detroit midweek out of the gates, terribly unable to break beyond the opposing 3-4-1-2. There were fleeting moments where Danny Barrera or Luka Prpa would interchange with Andre Lewis to open up the middle, and the speed of Prince Saydee and company running in behind shone during those sequences. All too often, however, Hartford was bizarrely static; that changed in the second half, with Barrera consistently sitting narrow, and the side quickly equalized. Detroit re-established a modicum of control, but the heart of this Hartford side was on full display. They deserve big ups for keeping the spirit amidst a tumultuous season.
Two forwards got the start against the Rowdies as Juan Obregon and Rashawn Dally both received the look-in. Defensively, the shape was a reliable 4-4-1-1 in block, one that controlled the Rowdies more than you’d expect. If there's one area where Hartford's been solid since the tumultuous opening stretch, it's been in their defensive compactness. That solidity still gave way to a Sebastian Dalgaard banger and a few dangerous looks in transition, but this team isn't the pushover I feared they might be in mid-May. An increasingly direct offense even got Hartford a lead; the switch away from the two forwards and introduction of Prince Saydee as a defense-stretcher alongside Ariel Martinez as a half-space creator was huge. The playoffs are likely out of reach - their odds are just 6% in my model - but 2023 could be really, really interesting depending on the managerial pick.
Down Bad
22.) INDY: Early in the week, the Eleven dealt jack-of-all-trades Noah Powder for Sean Lewis, a long-tenured Tulsa goaltender. Lewis rated as the best 'keeper in the USL in 2020 by my models, but he's struggled mightily since then. In 2022, his Goals Saved Above Average ranked in just the 2% percentile, leading him to lose his starting job. Bryan Meredith's injury woes in the wake of Eliott Panicco's exit couldn't have been foreseen, but this feels like a decent bet. At the same time, I feel bad that Tim Trilk can't get a run. Additionally, I loved Powder's fit in this squad. He's likely been crowded out be Alexander McQueen, a returned Ayoze, and the viability of Justin Ingram and a spate of other players at fullback.
Trilk got the start in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, but the real shift was Raul Aguilera's look-in at striker. In a flatter 4-4-2, Aguilera was tasked with roving and pressing next to Stefano Pinho, using his midfield sensibilities to limit the Riverhounds. On the right, Indy was leagues stronger with Alex McQueen at right back and Jared Timmer at right-centerback. McQueen gives much more pace in the wide areas, and his overlapping threat on the ball pins opponents back. When Solomon Asante came on, the Grenada international was delightful in combination play and masterfully managed extra defensive responsibilities.
Asante took up the left-wing role in a 4-2-3-1 as Detroit visited the Mike. The shape was meant to hassle the visiting back three, but Trevor James' side is best when it can play over the top. Indy's misstep left them unshielded down the flanks in recovery, and Detroit took advantage out of build and on the counterpress, as seen for the guest side's opening tally. In the other direction, this team sorely lacks for a number ten. Raul Aguilera is energetic, Justin Ingram clever from deep, and Nicky Law intelligently mazy, but who can impose himself in zone 14 and create? Indy just can't put a foot right in recent weeks.
23.) LOUDOUN: After a half-decent run of form, Loudoun had the week off, but I'm just happy to see stability after a lull. Interestingly, this side hasn't earned a single point on the road in 2022. Powered by Abdellatif Aboukoura, a sudden superstar who first started earning minutes at the end of that sour streak, the 3-4-3 started looking good again in Virginia. For my taste, the side grew better in possession. Loudoun's best moments over the last two years tended to come in transition, but Aboukoura added tight dribbling and creative gravity against settled opponents. Hopefully he and Ryan Martin's squad can keep improving.
24.) PHOENIX: Phoenix upturned their lineup big-time as they headed out to Tennessee, with Luis Seijas returning and Channing Chasten getting a rare start as a fullback. System-wise, however, this was the reprisal of a classic, as Rising turned to a good-ol'-fashioned 4-3-3 with a lone holding midfielder. However, the compactness and pressure you'd expect from that look were nowhere to be found. Phoenix struggled to get a foothold with two high central midfielders leaving Aodhan Quinn alone against a man-mark approach. That wide-spread style doomed Rising defensively as well, allowing 901 FC to work through the middle with three true central midfielders and an inward-drifting Jeremy Kelly taking the guests to task. Yikes, yikes, yikes.
25.) ORANGE COUNTY: Orange County's shape against Monterey was 4-3-3 adjacent, but Tommy McCabe's wildly deep positioning in build rendered it an effective back three at times. Still, the improvisation in terms of system and assumed creativity of McCabe, Seth Casiple, and Daniel Pedersen could hardly do a thing in terms of creation. Monterey's compact banks of four were content to let Orange County pass among its own back line, and they struck on the counter with a blast that isolated one of Richard Chaplow's fullbacks. Meanwhile, Cubo Torres could hardly get a touch, isolated without midfield linking play. This just might be rock bottom.
26.) CHARLESTON: I though the Battery had enjoyed some real success in their 4-1-4-1/4-2-3-1 shape, and the switch to a somewhat flatter look against Birmingham, uh, fell flat. The Legion did a great job of pinching their fullbacks high and narrow in the press, and Charleston struggled to cope. I love Aidan Apodaca and Augustine Williams, but there's too much of a poacher-poacher energy there to forge a real partnership, and forcing the issue kills their shape defensively.
27.) NEW YORK: Coaching change off to a good start, yeah? I kid, because Louisville away is as hard a fixture as you could draw up, but the Baby Bulls looked every bit as dysfunctional as ever, and they didn't change their tactics much at all. A 4-4-2 pressing scheme against a side with technical defenders and high-swinging fullbacks was foolhardy, in fact, and Louisville ate up. Not a lot to like from New York this weekend.
Opmerkingen