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But without further ado...
Title Threats
1.) SAN ANTONIO: It is a truth universally acknowledged that a single team in possession of a title shout must be in want of a #10, but San Antonio bucks the trend of my literary quotation. The New Mexico game this weekend was a case in point. PC and Mohammed Abu - 91st and 86th percentile players by Goals Above Replacement - are defensive presences in the midfield, and Cristian Parano serves as a dribble-first winger more than an incisive creator. The direct style of this team just doesn't require the type of midfielder that can pick a foe apart. Time and again, San Antonio worked long over the 4-2-3-1 on the other side to crush any sense of tempo and create dangerous second balls to free players like Parano in space. New Mexico did claw back to earn a rare goal via rampant attacking rotation, but their chances were few and far between in general. A draw is a draw, and we know where San Antonio is weak, but I'd still bet in their favor against anyone.
2.) LOUISVILLE: Danny Cruz is blessed with one of the deepest rosters in the USL Championship, but I think the lineup he pulled out against Loudoun is the strongest he can muster, Wynder-for-Charpie notwithstanding. The results were immediate. Wilson Harris' back-pressure lead to a Brian Ownby take-on. When that paid off, Harris' deep run into the box opened a cross to Enoch Mushagalusa. It was a classic marriage of pressure, counterattacking, and final-third efficiency, and it gave Mushagalusa his third goal in as many games to, frankly, kill things off within about five minutes. Loudoun was frisky enough to get two goals, the first of which immediately followed a dual substitution, but this was another dominant match for the clear favorite in the East.
3.) SAN DIEGO: Evan Conway is utter dynamite on the wing, and the fact that he's an iffy starter for Landon Donovan speaks to the quality San Diego brings to the table amidst an admitted dry spell. His operations on the left side of a wonky 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 were paramount to a strong start against Phoenix, and he's in the 80th percentile for value added in an eight-goal campaign to date. He got a goal, but that defensive look ate Phoenix alive and allowed San Diego to double their opponent's shots on target total. Time and gain, Conway and Jack Blake tore down the flanks or cut inside to cause constant trouble. Phoenix is poor, but this was a strong showing.
4.) MEMPHIS: Another week, another round of left-back Derek Dodson, fullback extraordinaire. Transfermarkt data dating back two years suggests that he'd never played the position in the USL over that stint, but he's been excellent there for Memphis. Still, it was a classic move driven by the stars that earned 901 their opener. Jeremy Kelly (86th percentile Goals Above Replacement, 7 goals, 8 assists) cut inside against countervailing right-to-left runs, drawing Charleston far afield in defense. Off a rebound, movement king Phillip Goodrum (99th percentile Goals Above Replacement, 19 goals) was there for a tap-in. Moments later, Goodrum made it look easy again by getting behind for a tight-angle far-post finish. Memphis was 3rd in the league for conversion rate coming into the weekend, which can be a sign of luck, but it's absolutely earned for Goodrum and company. When you have elite finishers and generate high-quality chances, top-end conversion follows. In more ways than one, this team is top-end. Oh, and go watch the third goal for the dirtiest dummy you'll ever see by way of Kelly.
5.) DETROIT: Once again, Detroit looked to a 3-4-2-1 press shape; this time, it was meant to deny Lewis Hilton for Tampa Bay down the middle. At back, Trevor James allowed his fullbacks to tuck inside as Brad Dunwell recovered into the back line, putting pressure on star Rowdie Leo Fernandes. We've seen similar approaches from various Tampa Bay opponents as of late, but Detroit's unique combination of stratagems paid dividends on Saturday. No matter what Neill Collins did on the other side, the hosts held firm, and the solidity of that narrower, center-centric shape led to a Maxi Rodriguez burst beyond the press on the winning goal.
What does this win mean for Detroit? We're working off of consecutive wins over Colorado Springs and Tampa Bay at this point, two dominant defensive games where Le Rouge finally got over the line in attack. If this year's Open Cup and the Sacramento run in particular proved anything, it's that a solid back five can carry you to the highest heights; sound familiar? Antoine Hoppenot has that "Rodrigo Lopez" magic and skill as well. Suffice to say, I'm bought in, folks. Beating Detroit is the signature win now.
6.) SACRAMENTO: Orange County is an objectively poor side in 2022, but that doesn't make the Republic's no-nonsense win on Sunday any less commanding. For me, the Lopez-Foster-Keko line is the most mobile in the press and efficient in transition when you're considering forward deployments for Sacramento, and that very combination shredded the guests' high back line. With Foster on, the side gets about 1.6 goals per 90, and that's below 1.4 with him off.
Still, this was Jack Gurr's night in a lot of subtle ways. Orange County plays with a very high left back, and Gurr cooked him on endless occasions. I highlighted the fullback after his recent goal, but he's literally the highest-volume crosser of all fullbacks amidst an 81st percentile season. Few players have his mix of physicality, engine, and technique, and he's a big a part of what makes Mark Briggs' defense impenetrable. I include him in my all-league talks for a reason.
Fringe Contenders
7.) MIAMI: One of the unsung heroes of Miami in recent years has been Connor Sparrow, and he's in the 95th percentile for Goals Above Replacement and the 89th for goals against this year. Still, he's been out recently, and Jake McGuire has filled in admirably. The 28-year-old journeyman is in the 80th percentile for goals against in his own right, and he's anchored this late-season run that boosted Miami into the "contender" category in my eyes. McGuire admittedly didn't have a ton to do as his teammates steamrolled Atlanta in the midfield. Two-nited play a deeper-seated 5-3-2 shape as compared to their typical high press, and Speedy Williams paired with Bolu Akinyode to shut down all-important counters out of that bunkered look while also dominating a three-man Atlanta center.
However, the opposition improved markedly when their fullbacks got involve to one-up Miami and create a numerical edge. When turnovers occurred in this context, Anthony Pulis' side was slow to find their shape, creating issues in defense. Those same defenders more than made up for the rare foible with their attacking impact. Callum Chapman-Page got the opening goal in the follow-up to a free kick, and Paco Craig sparked the Kyle Murphy go-ahead strike by driving into the heart of the foe with the ball. Engagement like that can put this team over the top, even with results like this ugly draw.
8.) TAMPA BAY: Jake LaCava, who I highlighted as a leading Young Player of the Year candidate at Backheeled this week, took a breather as his Rowdies side traveled to Detroit on Saturday. Neill Collins has been a tinkerer in 2022, but we got another week of the wonky 4-2-3-1 that's more or less Tampa Bay's identity at this point. Leo Fernandes took up a free-ranging position in attack that let him rove all over those front two lines, but a sector-specific man-marking system from Detroit akin to Charleston's last week gave #11 issues. Even when LaCava entered, the Rowdies just couldn't do the job in suffering a 1-0 loss. I frankly don't know what the issue is right now. This side never needed a #10 in the past, but central progressivity is lacking. The defense is somewhat more error prone as well. Whatever the problem, I trust Collins to figure out the proper change in due time.
I should put in a word for CJ Cochran as well. He suffered a rather ugly injury late-on, and he's been nothing but solid in 2022. Cochran is a no-nonsense passer that sticks to his line. He rates in the 89th percentile for goals against and the 61st for Goals Saved Above Average; not quite Evan Louro, but still a rock. Phil Breno has a good record and should be fine in Cochran's stead, but I hope the side doesn't suffer any communicative issues as the new man feels things out.
One last thing: love y'all at The Unused Substitutes.
9.) BIRMINGHAM: The Legion moved into something more like a 4-1-3-2 or diamond to pack the middle against Pittsburgh's rampant midfield, and the result was awkward spacing that let the 'Hounds advance with relative ease. Pittsburgh's right back tended to jump high in attack and challenge Anderson Asiedu's positioning on the left wing, and they took a deserved lead in the immediate follow-up to a disallowed Agudelo goal against the run of play. For a second straight match, Birmingham immediately gained a foothold by moving Asiedu back into the middle; this time, he allowed Sadik Belarabe to move to the wing and overload Pittsburgh for an immediate equalizer. My biggest takeaway once the Legion burst into the lead was Enzo Martinez tracking to support the left back. He's utterly incredible in every facet of the game, and he makes himself felt no matter what.
10.) RIO GRANDE VALLEY: There's nary a hotter team in the USL than the Toros, and the late-season additions have been absolutely vital. I've covered Christian Pinzon in this space, but how about Jonas Fjeldberg? The forward came to Southern Texas for the first time late last season, and he was vital to RGV sneaking into the playoffs. That side was powered by Rodrigo Lopez in the middle; Emilio Ycaza repeats the trick in 2022, and Fjeldberg is absolutely deft working off of him. He got the winning goal against Colorado Springs by deftly navigating the half space against high pressure. I know that Mark Lowry is a very smart human, but losing a talent like Fjledberg feels like a giant error; credit to the player and Wilmer Cabrera for a link-up that could prove decisive in the playoff hunt.
11.) MONTEREY: I'll vainly start with a plug for my piece on Sam Gleadle and Monterey's playoff chances; he's so legit, y'all. #23 got on the scoresheet in a crushing 5-0 win for one of the hottest teams in the USL, and he made a number of exceptionally clever runs to the left wing that paired with Simon Dawkins to utterly demolish Indy's narrow 4-3-3. Time and again, Monterey would ensconce themselves in attack, involve the fullbacks up high with the Dawkins, Gleadle, and Chase Boone line swapping with aplomb, and go to work from there. With the win, Monterey is improbably up to sixth in the West on points per game and looks solidly like a playoff contender; I would hate to see Frank Yallop's side in the first round.
12.) COLORADO SPRINGS: Sebastian Anderson's return for the Switchbacks is a big deal. He brings institutional knowledge of how to play right back for Brendan Burke, and he did so brilliantly in 2021. Last year, Anderson got about 25 matches in the league and put up 95th percentile expected assists. He's quick on the overlap, but he also knows how to get back. Anderson hasn't played a whole lot between the various senior and affiliate clubs associated with the Colorado Rapids, but I'm expecting big things from a guy who put up seven assists last year.
Against Rio Grande Valley, Burke's crew went down amidst a bit of misaligned pressure when the Amoh-Barry-Ngalina front didn't quite have enough steel to address an overload. This was another half-assed performance after last weekend's Detroit loss, in all honesty. There's absolutely too much talent in the Switchbacks squad to excuse what's shaping up to be an ill-timed dry spell. Cam Lindley's inch-perfect balls go wanting, Hadji Barry and Elvis Amoh drop into the midfield without secondary runs filling their space, and the defense is always good for a stupid mistake. Something's gotta give, or this team's collapse from early-season juggernaut status is going to be...a lot.
13.) EL PASO: With Liam Rose making a surprise shift to right back, El Paso rounded out the matchweek hot out of the gates. Their press took on a 4-2-4 aspect with the Gomez-Solignac-Zacarias forward trio supported by a ragingly high Dylan Mares. Just minutes in, Richie Ryan joined the fun as Los Angeles tried to break the lines, allowing Zacarias to find a loose ball, thread in Solignac, and create a rebound goal for Mares. It was a testament to John Hutchinson's absolute belief in aggression and playing on the front foot and an endorsement of Zacarias, a player with six assists who rates in the 89th percentile in key passes per forward pass. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Rose was exceptionally bright behind Zacarias on the right side, showcasing a surprising level of mobility.
The second goal was better still and highlighted #17 to a further degree. Off a diagonal run behind the high-shifted defense, everyone's favorite right winger raced toward goal but wisely held up his run. A freaking nasty backheel loosed Solignac's late arrival, and it was a two-goal edge in an instant. When El Paso is clicking, they're a hoot, and their brightness in the press finally met the high standards wrought by an elite, switchable offense. Also, those second-half moments with Mares as a legit striker in a 4-4-2 had me going wild, defensive foibles be damned. More seriously, though El Paso has played more games than anyone, I still feel good about the Locomotive making the playoff field with a four-point edge at the end of this week.
In the Mix
14.) PITTSBURGH: Wednesday's huge match in Alabama saw Bob Lilley stick with a 4-2-3-1 with Angelo Kelly-Rosales at left back this time, but he was backing up a first-choice midfield for the 'Hounds as compared to the weekend. The ever-flexible Shane Wiedt slid to right back in essence, but his attacking positioning rendered Pittsburgh's shaped rather fluid across different phases of the match. More of a back-five look prevailed at the start of the second half, and the passivity led to a quick concession. Lilley was somewhat tepid in his adjustments, and a two-forward did look to stifle a holder-power three-man build for the Legion. The game got somewhat chippy late as well; not a great look.
15.) NEW MEXICO: The New Mexico system completely baffles me this year. Anyone can see the changes between back threes and back fours, but there's never much consistency in press intensity, build patterns, or much else. For large swathes of Saturday's game against San Antonio, the side looked idea-less in build and somewhat ineffectual in the press. That changed on a lovely goal from Chris Wehan. The veteran creator hasn't been effective in a creative sense in 2022, but his rotation with Sergio Rivas and movement off of Kevaughn Frater rewarded a lovely Austin Yearwood cross in the second half. That's basically the story of the season for New Mexico. Lots of variation, injury-driven tactical inconsistency, and good-not-great results. You take it, I suppose, as long as the playoff performance(s) look okay and Zach Prince starts to forge a firmer vision in the immediate future.
16.) HARTFORD: I hit on Tom Brewitt's midfield deployment recently, but it's really a standout development for Hartford. Conor McGlynn is, bar none, the most underrated holding player in the USL; 96th percentile pass completions and 95th percentile tackling efficiency don't lie. Still, finding Brewitt as a Plan B in that role, one capable of getting box-to-box in the press while still providing a metronomic build-out presence, is a big deal for Tab Ramos' nascent regime. Brewitt is a capable defender as well, and that sort of versatility makes him an attractive piece to keep for 2023. Ditto Younes Boudadi, a two-sided fullback whose precise overlapping power Hartford's first goal. The opposition is what it is, but the Connecticut club is finding form.
17.) OAKLAND: Drawing at home against New York is the most brutal result in all of the USL, and Oakland finally got a just goal late-on to avoid that outcome. The Roots dominated the matchup and allowed just two shots over the 90 minutes, and their winner was an absolute thing of beauty. Charlie Dennis, in the 80th percentile for expected assists and passing volume but with just two real assists on the year, dropped low and wide to pick up possession. Lindo Mfeka joined him deep, and the young New York defense was completely sucked up. When your fullbacks lose shape against Oakland, it's game over; Edgardo Rito got in behind, fed Ottar Karlsson for his 16th goal of the year, and proved this side's heart once again.
18.) INDY: The Indy 4-3-3 or diamond approach has been a joy, but a long road trip to California exposed some frailties. Monterey's opener came when the midfield pressed up and rightward to form something like a 4-2-4; this let the opposition break into the channel. The second goal started with an overreaction to a winger-fullback link in the opposite direction; the Eleven ping-ponged between flanks against a cleared cross and failed to track a far-post runner to go down two. Pressing up after the break only caused more pain as Indy went down 5-0, and the effort level visibly dropped with each passing Monterey goal. The defensive shape just couldn't cope; here's to 2023.
19.) LOS ANGELES: Tsubasa Endoh finally worked his way into the starting eleven for Yoann Damet against El Paso, and Preston Judd wasn't even in the squad, but the forward choices were second fiddle to a wholly lackluster performance in build for Los Angeles on Sunday night. I don't know if the absence of Remi Cabral, one of the best linking #10s in the USL, or Adrian Gonzalez, he of 63rd percentile expected assists and 91st percentile key pass efficiency, stunted this team's build, but Galaxy II couldn't break to save their lives. An early turnover in that vein led to the opening concession, and the side went down two as they pressed up to equalize and gave up a counter goal.
The second half was somewhat better, driven by Liam Doyle deciding to go it along in build. Remi Cabral's entrance helped as well, helping to raise up the tempo as the attack turned into that classic 3-2-5; Cabral himself self got the second goal. Still, it wasn't enough in the end. With the 3-2 loss, my playoff odds have LA at a lowly 6% of getting in, and their form is dire. Some people - never me! - might call this just desserts after the stadium hooplah, but that's too mean.
Down Bad
20.) ORANGE COUNTY: I was tempted to boost Orange County way, way up on the strength of the stadium news alone; more on that from me at Backheeled this week. In any event, the start to the Sacramento game on Sunday summed up every issue for the club this year. Build-up was strained in the 4-3-3, allowing the Republic to force a turnover and earn a corner. In a bizarre series of events, that corner was quickly taken and falsely flagged offside. Orange County switched off, Sacramento played on, and it was 1-0 within ten minutes. Weird decision-making from the powers that be and on-field sloppiness; ain't that the pair in 2022? The high-ish back four did Richard Chaplow no favors, giving Sacramento chance after chance with that slow Skendi-Orozco pair and the constantly-too-high Alex Villanueva in the mix. Tough sledding, but the stadium is what matters.
21.) CHARLESTON: I was fairly laudatory this week about Charleston's back line this week after a shut-down performance against Tampa Bay, but the Battery crashed down to Earth on Friday in Memphis. Still, the issues began up top. Mauro Cichero, often used as a deeper creator or a #10 in a 4-2-3-1, sat behind the striker alongside Andrew Booth, and the tandem could never properly time their closing runs or figure out how narrow to sit. This fact let Memphis build without so much as an iota of pressure, and it doomed the back line. Each of the first two goals for 901 began with misaligned pressure; in the case of the opener, that soft underbelly directly forced the defensive line to woefully lose shape. It's easy to scapegoat the centerbacks or goalkeeper on a goal, but those players can only do so much.
22.) TULSA: It was a bye week for FC Tulsa, and powers outside of the club's control finally ended a Quixotic playoff shout. There's not much to add at this point; 2022 has been disappointing, but the groundwork is laid for a bounce-back. What becomes of the veterans here? The Joaquin Rivas trade illustrated that Tulsa is willing to overhaul things at the expense of stalwarts. Lebo Moloto only has a single goal and two assists this year alongside a 38th percentile Goals Above Replacement. Brian Brown only hit the back of the net three times, though his hold-up was strong. Ronald Rodriguez was a star at back, but he's often missing for Salvadoran duty. Blair Gavin will be allowed to re-tool, but I'll be keenly observing who he keeps as a core.
23.) LAS VEGAS: You knew it was coming even after the LAFC news a few weeks back, but Danny Trejo returned with Cal Jennings for the Lights once again this weekend after a hiatus. The side came into their Hartford matchup on two straight losses and one win in their last five outings, but they immediately conceded in spite of that dominant forward pair. On the goal, impressive young'un Mohamed Traore was caught high against the overlap, isolating the centerback to his right. Hartford worked in, and it was 1-0. Generally, the Lights looked a pace off of it, struggling to build on the road whenever the opposition deigned to get aggressive in the press.
24.) PHOENIX: Kevon Lambert is 6'3" and JJ Williams 6'4", but both stood idly by as Evan Conway slid in front of Baboucarr Njie to open the scoring on Saturday as Phoenix lost to San Diego. Even sloppier set-piece defending doomed Rising on the second allowance, but this wasn't a great game in the run of play either. The right-wing connection between Darnell King and the debuting Hayden Sargis was especially troublesome. Sargis was largely fine and earned two tackles and three interceptions, but King's positioning often left #20 on an island. The captain doesn't have the pace to play the wide role in Juan Guerra's system for my taste. Still, I think both of these players can contribute in 2023. Frankly, King might be the perfect wide centerback for Guerra, and I would love to see Sargis anchoring the back line in Phoenix with a chance to move back to MLS at some point in the future.
25.) ATLANTA: Coming into this weekend, Noah Cobb was minus-twenty in terms of goal difference in about 20 games; Atlanta was a further 20 goals under par in the 900 or so minutes without him on the pitch. Thus, the teenaged centerback allows Jack Collison's side to be more than a goal per 90 better when he's on the pitch. Did that quality bear fruit against Miami on Saturday? Somewhat, as Atlanta stayed in the match and limited chance quality. Cobb is a solid passer (67th percentile completions, 73rd percentile progressivity), and Collison dropped a forward into the midfield to try and create options. That presence in the center let Atlanta aggressively swarm the half spaces to create turnovers, as on the tying goal. Four-man pressure on the flank won the ball, freeing a switch to the opposite side. Miami overreacted, and Darwin Matheus slid in for a nice goal. A quick answer came when the midfield proved utterly passive in closing to a dribble up the gut, but the overall gambit was well-considered for Atlanta.
26.) LOUDOUN: Tyler Freeman is an excellent attacker, ranking in the 97th percentile for expected goals this year while actually scoring six of them in about 1000 minutes. Still, he was thoroughly overmatched on the right wing as a defender against Louisville. Amadou Dia was his ostensible one-on-one matchup, but Josh Wynder's ball carriage meant that Freeman was constantly caught between two exceptional passers. The result was an inability to prevent progression, and Louisville becomes unbeatable when they enter the attacking zone. Freeman isn't at fault on his own; any winger would have an awful time against this opposition. In a sense, the struggle resulted from a fluid shape with Carson Vom Steeg operating as a low right back in defense and wide cog in an on-ball back three; the shape directly facilitated the Ku-Dipietro goal by drawing Louisville up, mind you. It's a delicate balancing match against a team this good.
27.) NEW YORK: We're at 14 points on the season for tracksuit-rocking Ibrahim Sekagya and the Baby Bulls, and I'm praying that they improbably hit the 20-point mark. That said, this weekend's performance on the road at Oakland was an indication that I'll be disappointed. New York garnered just two shots and forced but a single save. Their defensive shape was horribly muddled between a 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 and bled chances. What went right? The high-flying fullback pairing of O'Vonte Mullings and Recinos/Ofori pressed well against their Oakland counterparts. 18-year-old Jesus Castellano was rather bright in his ball progression down the middle; he's in the 71st percentile for forward passing this year. I've said it before, but you have to appreciate the small joys at this point for New York. And, hey, rivalry match about the sanitized Rochester brand next season?
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