As we near the two-month mark until the 2023 season, it's a fine time to assess where every USL Championship team stands. I publish standings projections every week, but that doesn't capture the ups and downs for a given club relative to expectations. Context matters.
That said, there are still two whole months until opening day. We're weeks away from preseason camps, and there are plenty of signings that haven't been finalized or announced. These grades are midterm updates and temperature checks rather than be-all, end-alls; take it with a grain of salt.
The "A" Class
Charleston Battery
Major Ins: Ben Pirmann (MGR), Emilio Ycaza (AM) Major Outs: Matt Sheldon (FB)
You'll notice a trend across my grades in that I reward action for teams that had poor seasons in 2022, and no one has done more to improve than the Charleston Battery. In Conor Casey's lone season at the helm, the team had the worst defense of any club that's back for 2023. Casey could never decide on a tactical system. Change was necessary.
Enter Ben Pirmann, the reigning Coach of the Year. After leading Memphis to the near-top of the East, Pirmann is projected to take Charleston into the playoffs. To do so, he poached a number of rotation players from his old unit. More importantly, Emilio Ycaza (five goals, four assists, 94th percentile Goals Above Replacement) and Juan Sebastian Palma (five Colombia U20 caps) enter as additions with huge upside.
Pirmann's track record of player development and tactical mastery make everything coalesce into an "A." For this team, moving from a bottom-end, visionless roster to a bubble side with an elite gaffer is an optimal start to the Lee Cohen era in South Carolina.
Indy Eleven
Major Ins: Cam Lindley (CM), Sebastian Guenzatti (FW), Gustavo Rissi (CB)
Major Outs: Ayoze (FB), Neveal Hackshaw (CB), Stefano Pinho (FW)
Mark Lowry led Indy to a ninth-place finish last year, but that campaign ended with 19 points in the final 10 matches; that's home-field-advantage pace. Core pieces like AJ Cochran have remained, but Lowry was liberated to bring in a stars. Sebastian Guenzatti is one of the best forwards in league history, Cam Lindley had nine assists last year, and Gustavo Rissi should've made an all-league team in 2021; all fit the "star" bill.
A slight snag comes with the playerss that are leaving, though the quibbles are easily answered. Stefano Pinho's sharp goalscoring is the hardest-hitting loss, but Guenzatti ought to one-up him. Frankly, I think the time had come for guys like Ayoze and Neveal Hackshaw to move on. The Lowry press requires energy and speed, and a lot of the ballast lacked those qualities.
This new-look Eleven team, much like Charleston, sits on the bubble, but their game-breakers push Indy above the Battery for upside and render the 2023 offseason a massive success.
San Antonio FC
Major Ins: Juan Azcocar (FB)
Major Outs: Samuel Adeniran (FW), Cristian Parano (AM)
You could point to the losses of Samuel Adeniran and Cristian Parano's attacking skill and the steady defensive presence of Jasser Khemiri as major events for San Antonio. However, a title-winning side returning two-thirds of their minutes is nothing but a win. Alen Marcina has kept the Goalkeeper of the Year and Defender of the Year plus the spine of his midfield, and the new additions have been excellent.
Juan Azocar brings double-digit goalscoring on the flanks, and he excelled in an Oakland side that used a similar formation to San Antonio. Niko Hansen is a MLS journeyman, but his energy and pace look rather sharp in the highlights; he's a Marcina player. This team is talented from top to bottom and hasn't put a foot wrong in the first stages of their title defense; they have to be an "A."
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Major Ins: Forrest Lasso (CB), Connor Sparrow (GK), Jordan Doherty (CM)
Major Outs: Jake LaCava (AM), Jordan Scarlett (CB), Sebastian Guenzatti (FW)
Neill Collins has never been one to rest on his laurels or overuse a stale style , and this offseason marks a true refresh for the core of Tampa Bay. Beyond Jake LaCava's departure after a loan spell, the Rowdies have shed stalwarts across the board ranging from Jordan Scarlett to Laurence Wyke to Sebastian Guenzatti.
The new and old-but-new faces more than make up the difference. JJ Williams, fresh off a 12-goal year with a 94th percentile aerial win rate, is an interesting and proven add at the no. 9 slot. Forrest Lasso, 2021's Defender of the Year, and Jordan Doherty, a holding midfielder or fullback, provide steel in spades.
Connor Sparrow might be the most under-the-radar pickup off the offseason. Tampa Bay had to rely on three goalkeepers in 2022, and the ex-Miami man rated in the 95th percentile for Goals Saved Above Average. He also had a 93rd percentile Goals Above Replacement ranking in 2021; he's legit.
Why the minus? This roster is still a bit unbalanced, unproven, or injury-prone on the flanks and confusingly dense in the central midfield. There's another big singing or two on the way, but the distribution of talent is the hold up for me.
The "B" Class
FC Tulsa
Major Ins: Collin Fernandez (CM), Brett Levis (FB)
Major Outs: Lebo Moloto (CM)
Any club that keeps their best players and adds half-a-dozen enticing talents is doing something right. Tulsa's approach has squared two distinct paths: keep a core that would've made the expanded playoff field and invest in upside.
On one hand, they've returned Rodrigo Da Costa (98th percentile Goals Above Replacement), Dario Suarez (11 goal contributions in Tulsa's last 11 games), and Bradley Bourgeois, amongst others. On the flip side, the cuts made sense, from an aging Lebo Moloto to an oft-missing Ronald Rodriguez to numerous average squad types.
I like the swerve towards collegiate, MLS NEXT Pro, and Canadian acquisitions, but it isn't without some aspect of risk. A few players - think Collin Fernandez and Brett Levis - have USL tenure, but there's a chance we get more than a few whiffs. Still, watch the new faces. I trust Blair Gavin and company's scouting prowess, and a B+ is still an endorsement.
Louisville City
Major Ins: Dylan Mares (AM)
Major Outs: Corben Bone (AM)
You're the Eastern Conference champs fresh off a 70-plus-point campaign, but you're losing a good-but-aging midfielder. What to do? If you're Louisville, you add Dylan Mares, he of 34 goal contributions in the last three years. Oh, and Mares is from suburban Indianapolis; that's how you slap at a rival.
Beyond the addition from El Paso, Danny Cruz is bringing everyone back. A healthy Cameron Lancaster and a full-season of Elijah Wynder may as well be new signings too. Losing the Swiss Army knife of Napo Matsoso is bad for depth, but Carlos Moguel is ready to take a step up.
My complaint comes in central defense. The core of Sean Totsch, Wes Charpie, and Josh Wynder is pretty unassailable, but I'll eat my shirt if Wynder is still on this roster come mid-summer. The star prospect is going to be sold, so why not get his replacement integrated in the preseason?
Monterey Bay FC
Major Ins: Alex Dixon (AM), Alex Lara (CB)
Major Outs: None
The USL has run on one-year deals with the occasional option for time immemorial, but Monterey has bucked the trend this winter, awarding 12 players with multi-year deals. Frank Yallop's side firmly ensconced themselves into the playoff race after a disastrous start to the year, and they're committed to running things back with a full year at Cardinale Stadium.
Beyond the continuity, this club has made two major additions around the edges. Alex Lara rated as the single best defender in the USL in 2022 by my Goals Above Replacement model, and Alex Dixon put up top-quarter expected goals and assists while dominating either flank. Take an underrated side, convey your confidence in them, and add two studs; it's a good formula.
Sacramento Republic
Major Ins: Russell Cicerone (AM), Shane Wiedt (CB)
Major Outs: Dan Casey (CB)
Sacramento's roster was cleverly constructed heading into 2022 and made a run to the Open Cup final, so why mess with a good thing? 75% of the team's minutes are back, and the losses are either minor or have been thoroughly addressed.
Dan Casey, a ball-able defender, was replaced by two such right-siders in the form of Jared Timmer and Shane Wiedt. Both are technical and multi-positional centerbacks. Maalique Foster, never able to take hold as the no. 9, has been upgraded into 13-goal Russell Cicerone, though the ex-Riverhound isn't a true striker in my mind.
A bit more depth at wingback would do nicely, and ditto for the central midfield, but this is a guaranteed playoff team. If Cicerone erupts - well within the realm of possibility - then the West should be on notice.
Hartford Athletic
Major Ins: Antoine Hoppenot (FW), Elvis Amoh (FW)
Major Outs: None
Tab Ramos' first offseason in Hartford divides my mind to a certain degree. Antoine Hoppenot (11 assists) and Elvis Amoh (13 goals) are perfect signings for a team sorely lacking in front-line consistency and quality, and the attacking midfield is deep.
I have questions at back. If the excellent Conor McGlynn goes down, then the no. 6 spot becomes a major calamity. Tulu is merely fine as a centerback, and I like Niall Logue as a capable distributor and defender in equal measure, but I wish one of the two was more of an attack dog. An ostensible fullback pair of Ash Apollon and Triston Hodge, neither of whom is quick, raises concerns.
I don't love Richard Sanchez in net at all. Yannik Oettl was solid on loan from New England to end last season, but Indy pipped Hartford to ink him. Sanchez, meanwhile, couldn't hold down the net in front of Los Angeles' roaring crowds amidst a 40th percentile season for Goals Saved Above Average. If he comes good, this team has the offense to compete. If not, Hartford will crash and burn.
The "C" Class
San Diego Loyal
Major Ins: Elliot Collier (FW)
Major Outs: Kyle Vassell (FW)
If any team here is underrated, it's San Diego. They've kept all but one player with 20 or more 90s played. Their coaching change was internal and projects to be smooth at a bare minimum. My qualm is that I expect more ambition from the Loyal. This club is on the precipice of something special, but they've done nothing to make that leap.
The loss of Jack Blake was odd, but he was often injured and Nate Miller still inherits a wildly deep midfield. Kyle Vassell, a tank of a forward who had 14 goals and an 86th percentile conversion rate, gives way to Elliot Collier. In a dozen or so games in San Antonio, he generated strong rate stats but couldn't stake a starting claim.
At the end of the day, functionally running back a second-place team garners no complaints, but the two slight downgrades leave an odd taste in my mouth. I suspect there's more to come here, and I look forward to it.
Orange County SC
Major Ins: Andrew Fox (CB), Owen Lambe (FB)
Major Outs: Cubo Torres (FW), Michael Orozco (CB)
No one saw Orange County's year-over-year collapse coming in 2022 (other than my data model...), and the club has done well to salvage usable pieces while building around them. Milan Iloski and his Golden Boot are back; ditto his brother Brian, good for ten assists since coming to Championship Soccer Stadium. High-potential Korede Osundina, a US youth international, is a major breakout candidate. Rob Kiernan (87th percentile Goals Above Replacement in 2021) and Dillon Powers also seem likely to return to prior form.
The signings and departures hold me back a shade. Owen Lambe is the exception; the Los Angeles right back is insanely intelligent and rated as a top-fifteen player last year. Still, Andrew Fox is a bit scattered at centerback and the European additions are unproven.
Losing veteran leaders like Michael Orozco and Patrick Rakovsky could hurt, even if both were bad last year; Daniel Pedersen coming back with the captain's armband helps. I thought that both Cubo Torres and Sean Okoli - both around 50th percentile expected goals per 90 - were average in 2022, but their movement and presence bought free-flowing Milan Iloski acres of space. This team will be back in contention next year, but the rebuild isn't without question marks in its first phases.
Birmingham Legion
Major Ins: Tyler Pasher (FW)
Major Outs: Marlon (AM), Jonny Dean (FB), Bruno Lapa (AM)
The Legion rated a whole lot higher before the Jonny Dean sale to Chicago last week, but an already-thin squad is now without one of its galvanizing forces. Birmingham hasn't addressed poor depth, hasn't replaced Juan Agudelo with a no. 9, and let Bruno Lapa walk prematurely. Marlon's sale to Israel makes sense, but it also creates a thin attack to match the defense.
Still, Tommy Soehn's returning core is among the best in the league. Two excellent centerbacks, all-league creator Enzo Martinez, and the endless energy of Anderson Asiedu mean that the Legion have a high floor. Adding Tyler Pasher was a masterclass when he could've shared a flank with Dean - talk about speed! - but you worry that the breakout star of 2020 season might bear too large a burden in his debut Legion campaign. Still, he's a cornerstone who can hold up to mountain-high standards. This is another team that's going to keep picking up players and end up okay, but I'm wishing they did more to fill things out.
El Paso Locomotive
Major Ins: Brian Clarhaut (MGR)
Major Outs: John Hutchinson (MGR), Dylan Mares (AM)
I'm glass-half-full on the Brian Clarhaut regime despite a resume composed of lower-tier Scandinavian adventures and a crushing relegation in his one first-tier stint. Clarhaut absolutely gets a pass for falling on his sword in an exceedingly tough situation with GIF Sundsvall, but he just isn't proven. I thought little of John Hutchinson as a tactician and man manager, so the new gaffer will end up in the "plus" column regardless.
What of the roster? Gone are stalwart midfielders Dylan Mares and Richie Ryan. Evan Newton gives way to Javier Garcia in net, a 50-percentile Goals Saved Above Average upgrade. Keeping 23 goals and 12 assists of Lucho Solignac and Aaron Gomez is crucial, especially given an uninspiring slate of attacking additions.
The defense is still the question. No team outside of Phoenix had more sloppy errors and systemic misunderstandings last year. If Erik McCue and Marc Navarro solidify a fairly fresh back line, this team has the firepower to solidly find a playoff place. I'm not convinced yet.
The Miami FC
Major Ins: Michael Salazar (FW), Gabriel Cabral (CM)
Major Outs: Speedy Williams (CM), Connor Sparrow (GK)
Departures define my opinion on Miami to a large degree. Connor Sparrow is the most underrated goalie this side of the Mississippi, and replacing him with some combination of Jake Maguire and Noah Abrams is a wait-and-see proposition at best. I frankly think that Speedy Williams (65th percentile Goals Above Replacement; bottom-third expected goals, assists, and forward passing) had lost a step, but he's still one of the greats.
Both additions from South Georgia Tormenta are intriguing, Gabriel Cabral especially so. The bright no. 6 or no. 8 hovered around the 80th percentile in expected goals and assists with above-par defensive actions in League One. Adding Michael Salazar as a secondary scorer and astute runner aside Kyle Murphy also reads as a good pick-up.
Still, Miami squeaked to a blasé sixth in last year's East and could've made a splash. They're overloaded at centerback, light at fullback, and unbalanced in the midfield. Top-end talent, lacking vision.
New Mexico United
Major Ins: Santi Moar (AM), Greg Hurst (FW)
Major Outs: Neco Brett (FW), Sam Hamilton (CB)
Has anything fallen under the radar more than New Mexico getting both Santi Moar (50 goal contributions since 2019) and Greg Hurst (78th percentile Goals Above Replacement) from Phoenix? I know that Rising were a dud last year, but I'd call that duo the core of a playoff attack. Still, New Mexico lost Neco Brett and Preston Tabortetaka all the while. They've upgraded despite attrition.
In a way, Zach Prince's offseason feels lateral or lightly positive, but without a game-breaking move to redefine a club in stasis. Moar has the electricity in his feet to be that sort of presence, I guess? Even so, two-thirds minute retention means that New Mexico wants to circle the wagons and run it back. A fifth-place finish, fifth-place goal difference, and 13th overall expected goals margin won't improve without another change or two; there's a ceiling that hasn't been broken through here.
Phoenix Rising
Major Ins: Manuel Arteaga (FW), Erickson Gallardo (AM)
Major Outs: Santi Moar (AM), Joey Farrell (CB), Ben Lundt (GK)
Juan Guerra's squad is as enigmatic as they come at the moment. League-best players like Kevon Lambert, Aodhan Quinn, and Arturo Rodriguez remain unconfirmed as returnees; that threesome would be the best midfield in the league, yet here we are. Rising finished 2022 in relatively decent form, but it's impossible to know if that culture will carry over beyond Gabriel Torres, Darnell King, and little else.
Most of the signings have come from outside of the USL as well, making things harder to judge. Erickson Gallardo, a Venezuelan attacking winger with a cup of coffee in Toronto, and Renzo Zambrano, ditto but central and in Portland may be bright. Few signings are more enticing than Frederico Varela, a midfielder with experience in La Liga (one game, but...) and numerous European divisions.
Inside the lower-league sphere, I dig the Manuel Arteaga addition. He can hold up play and link well, and he's good for double-digit goals. A few squad guys from Oakland and project types from abroad notwithstanding, there are just too many questions to fully endorse Phoenix's winter.
The "D" Class
Detroit City FC
Major Ins: None
Major Outs: Antoine Hoppenot (FW), Deklan Wynne (FB)
Antoine Hoppenot led all USL players in assists last season, and Deklan Wynne had the second-most apples of any fullback. Neither returns, and neither has been replaced to a satisfying degree. Brad Dunwell's steadying presence as a no. 6 and Pato Botello's eight goals are completely unaddressed after their exits, no matter how hard you squint.
Still, a solid playoff team has kept nearly two-thirds of their minutes played, even if the lost third is important. There might not be a better defensive core than Stephen Carroll, Matty Lewis, Devon Amoo-Mensah, and Nate Steinwascher; all ranked in the top quarter of USL players when adjusting for minutes played. Maxi Rodriguez (95th percentile Goals Above Replacement, top-quarter expected goals, expected assists, and defensive actions) can still dominate in the center of the park.
I'm so low here because I wanted Trevor James' side to make a leap. The runway was paved for Le Rouge to fly towards the upper reaches of the East, but this team will need another James masterclass of development and in-game adjustment to do anything but tread ground. Signings, please!
Memphis 901 FC
Major Ins: Stephen Glass (MGR)
Major Outs: Ben Pirmann (MGR), Patrick Seagrist (FB)
New manager Stephen Glass has kept more than half of the minutes of a team that played at a two-points-per game pace in 2022, so why am I bearish? Patrick Seagrist and Jeremy Kelly were the best left-sided duo in last year's USL; the former is gone, and the latter's status is up in the air. Trey Muse a perfectly legit goalkeeper, will be replaced by, uh two-game veteran Drew Romig, maybe?
Still, Phillip Goodrum's 20-plus goals, the brilliance of Aaron Molloy (18 goal contributions; MVP finalist) and a spate of starter-plus players all over return. This team doesn't have a fullback or any depth to speak of, and they haven't signed a new face. I don't rate Glass at all after mediocre Atlanta United and Atlanta United 2 stints and a disastrous spell with Aberdeen in Scotland, but I'm willing to see him as a net-neutral. Memphis feels like they'll get rolling in the market soon enough, but I have to start low.
Loudoun United
Major Ins: None
Major Outs: Sami Guediri (FB)
If there's a comparison point for Loudoun, it must be the LAFC-affiliated Las Vegas Lights, so it's hard not to look favorably on what the Virginian side has done by contrast. Still, Loudoun garners a low score by having just nine players and returning only one piece on a confirmed, permanent basis.
Why not an "F" then? I'm banking on loanees coming in from DC United and at least making this team competitive. Ryan Martin still hasn't got a plum job elsewhere in the league, so he boosts my regard for Loudoun by virtue of exisitng. Heck, a few of the new faces are downright intruging! Tommy Williamson has always had the frame of a USL no. 9. Daniel Chica seems like a solid wide piece based on college footage. Koa Santos and Khalil Elmedkhar both put up well-above-average third-tier seasons in the past. The roster is all forwards and wide men right now, but this isn't a DEFCON scenario.
Rio Grande Valley FC
Major Ins: None
Major Outs: Emilio Ycaza (AM), Jonas Fjeldberg (AM), Akeem Ward (FB)
Putting the Toros at a "D" feels wrong, and I frankly had them at a "C" on first pass, but that would've been grading on a curve. Wilmer Cabrera and company, famously slow in the transfer announcement scene, signed a lineup's worth of players by the turn of the calendar into 2023, and...that's it.
Yes, this core made the playoffs. Yes, Jonathan Ricketts and Christian Pinzon, respectively, are the best fullback and attacker you aren't watching enough. Still, I need action. Rio Grande Valley starts slowly and scrapes into the playoffs on the backs of midseason loanees as a brand, but why not just get your business out of the way?
The confirmed losses and assumed exits are a quietly big deal. Emilio Ycaza (top-quarter expected goals and assists) and Jonas Fjeldberg (eight goals in less than 18 games) must be replaced. Ditto the dyanmic Akeem Ward at right back. There's at least a baseline in place, but Cabrera must keep the energy going.
The "F" Class
Colorado Springs Switchbacks
Major Ins: Patrick Seagrist (FB), Speedy Williams (CM)
Major Outs: Brendan Burke (MGR), Michee Ngalina (FW), Cam Lindley (CM)
Putting a third-place team with nine name-brand additions at an "F" may seem unduly cruel, but Colorado Springs has lost quality from the top down. Brendan Burke, a former Coach of the Year finalist, was sold to Houston. Michee Ngalina, Elvis Amoh, and Cam Lindley - that's 47 goal contributions! - have all left. All rated among the top 5% of USL players. Losing solid tertiary contributors like Isaiah Foster and Beverly Makangila hurts depth, and the rise of MLS NEXT Pro endangers the Rapids loan funnel that's reliably returned gems like Sebastian Anderson and Michael Edwards.
Still, you may point to the incomers and argue that the Switchbacks are fine. I won't put up an argument about Patrick Segarist, a longtime plus-player that broke into the conversation for best USL left back last year. Outside of him, you've got:
Aging pieces of middling or down seasons: James Musa, Speedy Williams, Joe Kuzminsky
Players who couldn't cut it taking a step up: Deshane Beckford, Drew Skundrich
Sacramento Republic ballast: Maalique Foster, Duke Lacroix
Call me crazy, but this coachless team has something to prove and a lot of soul-searching yet to come.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Major Ins: Joey Farrell (CB)
Major Outs: Alex Dixon (AM), Shane Wiedt (CB), Danny Griffin (CM), Russel Cicerone (AM)
Take a look at the "Major Outs" list and try to disagree. I didn't even include Dane Kelly, the all-time USL goals leader! Bob Lilley has lost goal scorers, steadying midfielders, most of his defense, and some of my confidence in The Process™ in Pittsburgh.
There's a certain voice in my head that's pushing back. This Riverhounds team isn't without their virtues. Albert Dikwa put up the quietest double-digit goal season that I can remember, and playoff hero Edward Kizza will back him up nicely. Robbie Mertz (90th percentile Goals Above Replacement across Pittsburgh and Atlanta) and Kenardo Forbes still pack a mean central punch. Joey Farrell is proven and was rarely at fault for Phoenix's 2022 faults.
Nevertheless, everyone else is a squad player, give or take. Lilley always can pull six college kids out of his back pocket and turn them into contributors, but it feels like a huge ask looking ahead to 2023. My harsh model ony puts Loudoun below the 'Hounds right now...
Oakland Roots
Major Ins: None
Major Outs: Ottar Karlsson (FW), Juan Azocar (FB)
I was rather tempted to give Oakland an incomplete, but that would be moving the goalposts. They've added a handful of academy and college kids and a mid-tier Jamaican forward, but that's it. At the same time, three talented loanees, including Golden Boot contender Ottar Karlsson and rampant wingback Juan Azocar have left the building. Selling Charlie Dennis after his return announcement stung a bit.
The Roots still have a fine-ish spine, but their roster just lacks the high-end panache to do any true damage in an ever-improving USL. I know that more signings and a Venezia loanee or two are coming, but the offseason to date has been tough. Here's to Paul Blanchette (91st percentile Goals Saved Above Average; a human wall) dragging Noah Delgado to the playoffs.
Las Vegas Lights
Major Ins: None
Major Outs: Danny Trejo (FW), Cal Jennings (FW), Alex Lara (CB)
They don't have players. Like, c'mon. "F" without a doubt.