I was somewhat skeptical about San Antonio FC for a lot of the offseason. They lost Jose Gallegos and Marcus Epps, two slick-dribbling, sharp-shooting attack midfielders, early in the offseason and also saw striker Nathan exit at the end of a loan; that trio generated more than 50% of the side's expected goals last year. Still, San Antonio's high-pressing three-at-the-back defense was top-ten by xG conceded and in the top quarter for goals allowed, and much of that core was re-signed.
Things changed for me when Kekuta Manneh and Deshane Beckford signed on near the start of training camp. I figured that the pacey wing duo would feast in Alen Marcina's counter-attacking setup, finding ample space to use their speed. Paired with the additions of fringe all-leaguer Fabien Garcia from Austin and fluid right-sided defender Carter Manley from Rio Grande Valley, I sold myself on San Antonio as my last team in the playoffs in the Western Conference.
By any measure, San Antonio has outplayed those expectations in their first three matches. The three-and-oh record tells the story well, but the club's results so far have belied that defense-first, shot-suppressing style from years past. Indeed, SAFC's xG generation is third-best in the USL, while their defense has been bang-average at thirteenth. My naive, shot-total-based numbers may overrate the shot quality that San Antonio has conceded, but the inversion is still something to note.
I mentioned Beckford and Manneh from the top, but they haven't been the engine of this side's attack to date. Any discussion of their wonderful, dynamic offense has to begin with Justin Dhillon, who rates in the 92nd percentile for Goals Above Replacement and the top fifteen or so for total xG to date. His brilliant movement in transition is highlighted in the reel below.
There's a whole lot to like in the clips above. Chief among them is Dhillon. He's constantly riding the back shoulder of his opponents, stretching defenses and opening up space in the hole. He's wide left in the first example, dragging the line a shade wide to give his teammate the space to find the end of a pass. In the second, Dhillon leads the line and gets to the touchline to earn a corner. He moves ably on the break in the final two examples, showcasing the high-danger looks that San Antonio earns when their system is clicking.
Returning fullback Connor Maloney also stars here. He's variously started as a left wingback and right-sided defensive midfielder, excelling in all deployments. He's basically a winger when his side is in full-on attack mode in the clips above, further stretching the defense and opening room for Dhillon and company centrally. Still, Maloney has been so strong because he combines the marauding overlaps seen in the video with great tracking going the other way.
New signings have also powered San Antonio. In the graphic relating xG and value-added, David Loera pops in particular. He didn't much impress me in Phoenix last season, but he's been every bit as electric as Dhillon while taking up a linking role between the midfield and forward lines. Still, those additions at the back are notable in this sense too. Shannon Gomez has mirrored Maloney's quality at wingback, and Diedie Traore was bright as well in that position against RGV. In the attacking and transition phases in isolation, Carter Manley has been brilliant to date, connecting well with his fullback partner and ably charging up out of the back three.
That back-three system starring Manley's upfield aggression came under the spotlight in the recent Rio Grande Valley match, a 2-1 victory for San Antonio. Below, you can see a few tenets of their defensive style from that game.
Examples number one and two illustrate the aggressive positioning innate to Marcina's defensive system. When San Antonio is in attack, they keep a high back line. As seen in the second clip, this lets the centerbacks actively engage on the ball to maintain a presence in the offensive zone. There, Trainor comes up to meet the clearance with a first-time dink that lets his team re-enter the cycle of possession. In the first example, the high line goes awry to a certain extent. Manley rises up but loses the duel, but his teammates slide over and cover without much discomfort. The numbers innate to a back three let centerbacks contest as Manley does here without much risk.
In that final clip above, you can see the high San Antonio press in action. Right wingback Shannon Gomez is as aggressive as a wide man can possibly be. RGV plays through the first line of pressure, and Manley bursts forward to try and put out the fire, only to be beaten by Dylan Borczak, one of the surprise delights of the nascent season. In theory, this could be disastrous. However, Maloney is already back and covering at Manley's right-centerback slot to maintain a beautiful back four. A bit of clever play lets RGV cross in, but there's not much danger here.
Pressure like this has been nothing but a boon for SAFC. Three examples below illustrate that across various styles of buildup and states of the game.
SAFC loses possession high in clip one, but strong and immediate counterpressure from the chasing wide man forces a poor clearance. From there, Ates Diouf intercepts in the midfield and puts his side right back on the front foot through Loera and Dhillon. The second example sees the visitors score after Dhillon initiates the move with a hard tackle. Maloney is up from the midfield to recover the ball, racing up against a shell-shocked RGV to tee up an Elliot Collier finish. One final example sees Diedie Traore join the fun in the tackle, once again setting up that Loera-Dhillon tandem on the break.
It's clear that San Antonio is brilliant in transitional phases, but their defense has lacked in their own third during settled phases of play. They're third-from-bottom in shots conceded per ninety at the moment, though they rate more strongly in xG terms. Three examples of dangerous allowances are seen below.
If anything sticks out, it's the lack of communications across the back line. Centerbacks aren't picking up runners, and there are gaps between the fullbacks and the wide centerbacks to boot. You can partially blame this on style given that the defenders are often recovering from high positions, but this team has lived dangerously at times. One salve for the concession issue has come in goal. Yet another new signing, goalkeeper Christian Bonilla, rates as the third-best player at his position by Goals Above Replacement so far; he's second by saves per goals allowed and the league leader in Goals Saved Above Average all the while. The defense in block has broadly been fine, but Bonilla is making it look better than the underlying facts might predict.
On opening day, my predictive model put San Antonio at 40.9 points with a 27% chance of making the playoffs; when you correct for the fact that I had a native math error, that number rises to 43%, but it still put the club in 8th place and outside of the postseason mix. Today, that point expectation is up to 46.6 despite the Manneh injury, equating to 65% likelihood of playoff qualification and a 6th place finish. I think that feels right for SAFC right now. Their 3-4-3 shape is unmatched in transition, but I need to see a real shutdown performance against a higher-end conference foe. Nonetheless, I'm confident that the undefeated startis emblematic of this team's true quality.
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