Few people would deny that last year's Pittsburgh Riverhounds were in the upper echelon of USL sides, but they were unique in their inability to prove that elite status when it mattered the most. The 'Hounds forfeited their first-round playoff match in Birmingham amidst an outbreak of the coronavirus, kneecapping what would've been a premier matchup. For what it's worth, I had Pittsburgh advancing on the strength of their counterattack, but we'll never know how the game would have gone down.
In the regular season, Bob Lilley's side choked out opponents with one of the most unique and adaptable tactical approaches in the league. Often working out of a three-at-the-back defensive system, you regularly saw bizarre setups like a 3-6-1 that addled opponents and maximized talents like Alex Dixon and Russell Cicerone. Still, the Riverhounds were something of a chameleon, swapping out an extra centerback for more central solidity at times or moving Dixon from an out-and-out striker role into a defensive wingback position. Amidst this flexibility, Pittsburgh allowed the third-least goals in the USL, limiting foes to the fifth-lowest shots on target to boot.
Transitions out of this defensive shell were the main source of offense, but results could be mixed. The Riverhounds were in the top third of the league by goals scored, but their shot generation languished below league average. While not dependent on their strikers by the nature of their counterattacking philosophy, Pittsburgh wasn't helped by a 13% conversion rate from Tommy Williamson and Albert Dikwa, equivalent to the bang-average 50th percentile. Overall, the forward group ranked a middling eleventh by value added.
At this point, it would be instructive to examine how the best Riverhounds chances came about: what did team do to put opponents to the sword? In the clip below, the team's attacking interchange is on full display. Working out of a 5-4-1 shape, Pittsburgh carries the ball into the Charleston half. Williamson sits deeper in the hole, and Cicerone slides centrally from his left-sided base position. Those two simultaneously draw the centerbacks and vacate the wing, allowing a cross to find late-running Todd Wharton in space.
In the second example, a bout of chaos sees the 'Hounds come up with a loose ball in the midfield. League-best creator Kenardo Forbes has come deep and drawn eyes to his movement, allowing Wharton to burst forward in possession and find Williamson. Yet again, the striker has come into zone fourteen to create, drawing the defense up in the process. Spying the forward-forged gap in behind, Russell Cicerone streaks towards goal and is found by Williamson for a shot.
One final clip shows the abilities of the Riverhounds in more of a 4-3-3 formation. Here, supporting wingers Dixon and Cicerone overload the right side, forcing Miami to match. Williamson makes a diagonal run towards the same flank to deepen the effect. All the while, Wharton and Forbes make central runs towards goal with abandon. As a result, the Floridians track the two midfielders deep into the box, allowing Dixon to slink in late for a great chance.
A few principles and trends are apparent here. For one, Pittsburgh is especially strong in transition. Their best chances come against defenses that aren't fully set. Why is this the case? I would point to the exceptional chemistry and movement shown by the 'Hounds, especially that of Cicerone and Dixon. Another characteristic of these chances is the deeper role of the striker. When you think about the role of a forward in an attack, there are two broad buckets: that of a back-shoulder poacher and that of a "false nine" creator. Williamson isn't the most natural example of the latter, but he served the role in this context. Having a player who can encapsulate both aspects is rare, but Pittsburgh's all-around dynamism made up for the lack of a do-everything #9.
2022 will see the Riverhounds make a wholesale change at the striker spot with the introduction of Dane Kelly. A member of the Charlotte Independence last season, Kelly is the all-time leader in USL goals and one of the most lethal finishers in the history of minor league soccer in this country. Comparing his profile with that of Williamson, one is struck numerically by the comparative goal threat provided by Kelly. Put simply, he's a shot monster who generates chances for fun and finishes them at a high rate. Williamson does come off stronger in terms of creation, but his replacement's three-year percentile for expected assists lands him around average for USL forwards and belies a down 2021.
No one should deny that Kelly is the better striker overall, and the video bares that out. Take the set of three clips below. In the first, Charlotte's #29 stalks between the holding midfielder and centerback, drawing the attention of both. Kelly's sheer gravity lets a teammate meet a cross at the top of the box and leads to a goal. The second segment illustrates the forward's ability in transition. He advances full-throttle after a turnover, deftly navigating a maze of defenders to find space in the box to score off of an inch-perfect header. Finally, the third clip shows Kelly roaming around the box, waiting for a chance. He sniffs out the botched clearance and showcases that deadly finishing ability to score.
In Dane Kelly, Pittsburgh is adding an undisputed attacking talisman. Just as last season's deep drops opened gaps, Kelly's one-man gravity will create huge holes for Cicerone, Dixon, and Forbes. Additionally, his ace finishing will assure that the Riverhounds' efficient goalscoring persists even if chance creation lags again. Elite forwards don't come around often, much less ones that comfortably fit into a team's extant identity while providing new dimensions. Kelly does both for Bob Lilley, and I think both parties could be on the way to a special campaign.
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