When you're as consistently dominant as the Tampa Bay Rowdies have been in recent years, the slightest slip-ups can make you feel like the sky is falling. Admittedly, their recent stretch hasn't been great. Counting an Open Cup exit at the hands of Orlando City, the Rowdies have dropped three of their last four games and allowed nine goals in the process. By comparison, the Rowdies didn't concede their ninth goal across all competitions until July last year.
Look deeper, and the numbers tell a different story. As seen in the graphic, Tampa still sits first(!) in the USL by expected goals allowed, and a certain amount of their defensive struggles are down to poor luck and hot opponent finishing. Since the Miami loss in early April, opponents have converted shots at a 23% clip compared to a 12% league average this year. Still, that conversion partially comes down to the quality of chances that the Rowdies are giving up. It's worthwhile to see what's changed in Central Florida.
Before we dig into the tape, it's also important to consider injuries, squad rotation, and year-over-year transactions. Consider the minutes distribution in defense for Tampa in 2022 versus 2021; the difference is striking. Evan Louro and Forrest Lasso both played nearly every second for the Rowdies in their conference-winning campaign but left in the offseason. In their stead, Tampa has seen a minutes-split in goal, while the third centerback spot has seen ample rotation amidst a Robert Castellanos injury and Lasso's move to Sweden. A jam-packed early-season schedule hasn't helped either, as the Rowdies lead the league in matches played while maxing out on Open Cup bouts. These factors have combined to tire out the Rowdies and hurt their chemistry by requiring rotation and causing injuries.
However, that still doesn't excuse the issues that have plagued Tampa thus far in 2022. Let's dig in to the tape.
Here, the Rowdies are in the baseline 3-4-3 shape, taking on a 5-2-3 look while absorbing blows in their defensive half. You can see the central midfielders tracking back and the forwards shifting up to address San Diego's ball carriage, but Elijah Martin goes unaddressed for too long on the flank. As he hits the final third, the left-sider passes into Alejandro Guido in the center of the pitch. Timmy Mehl, making his first start, steps up but doesn't win the ball, and Junior Etou's back-pressure is ineffective. All of this leaves Jordan Scarlett on an island and lets Guido get a shot off.
On Etou: I wasn't huge on his stint in Charlotte, and I'm not sold on his utility as the defensive anchor alongside creators like Yann Ekra or Lewis Hilton. He formed a box-to-box tandem with Laurence Wyke against San Diego, which is a better fit. Etou rates in the 74th percentile for tackle win percentage and the 69th for successful defensive actions per foul conceded; by comparison, Jordan Doherty ranked in the 80th and 95th percentiles in those same categories last year. The ex-Independence man has exceeded my expectations, but those differences at the margins matter.
In a similar setup to above in this example, Tampa shifts well to deny San Diego's initial foray. Still, the Loyal recycle back to Martin without facing renewed pressure. Meanwhile, Wyke and Etou remain shifted toward the flank. As a result, the visitors are able to play through into a pocket of space. Guido cuts to the right to leverage the left-oriented Rowdies, and he and Nick Moon both make runs beyond the out-of-shape central midfielders. This movement pits the pair against backtracking defenders. Scarlett, Mehl, and Aaron Guillen defend splendidly to put out the fire, but San Diego still gets a shot from a decent angle.
One more hit from the San Diego defeat. Tampa shows a bit of gumption in the press with Wyke sliding wide and high to support forward closing. However, the Loyal wisely drop a man into the space vacated by Wyke, and there isn't a concerted effort from Etou or Sebastian Guenzatti to pinch in. Thus, the guests play an unmolested switch to enter the final third. The ultimate cross goes wanting, but the lack of balance in the central midfield is apparent yet again, allowing an easy zone entry.
Let's move to the Memphis match now, another game where the Rowdies shipped three goals. Jake Areman, the left wingback, closes high on Aaron Molloy in the middle, and Etou is hesitant to fill the hole and close on Laurent Kissiedou on the flank. Meanwhile, a Memphis man steps into the space that Etou belatedly vacates; #6 is in no-man's land. 901 FC is into the hole, and they work nicely back to Kissiedou. Meanwhile, three runners draw Dayonn Harris and the centerbacks deep into the box. The guests switch the point of attack into the open channel from there, and Tampa scrambles to recover. Memphis can work into a shot from there. Everything is amiss here. The first wave of pressure is too meek, the positioning and recovery in midfield too disconcerted, the communication at back too poor.
One final breakdown . Memphis takes a quick throw to pass Harris and enter the zone. Still, Lewis Hilton actively tracks from the midfield, and Wyke, used as a centerback here, isn't in a bad position. Neither, however, puts in the decisive tackle to snuff out 901 FC's move. Hilton hasn't ranked in the top half of USL midfielders for tackle win percentage or defensive actions in either of the last two seasons, and holding isn't his prerogative. Wyke rates better, but he's eaten huge minutes across positions in recent weeks. Their inaction lets Memphis play a quick one-two that completely fools Hilton, and a Conner Antley intervention is the only thing preventing a clean look. Seriously, what a read from #2 to leave the first mark and slide over! Nonetheless, it's another poor allowance from Tampa.
None of the chances analyzed here were particularly lethal, but all raise red flags. In my estimation, the back three has been decent regardless of personnel. Indeed, there have been special moments from Antley (93rd percentile GAR), solid tracking from Fernandes, and smart bouts of Etou positioning amidst the struggles. For my taste, the issues have generally started higher up the pitch. Docile forward pressure, disconnection in the midfield, and poor tracking have paired with a brutal schedule and a decline in Goals Saved Above Average from the 60th percentile to the 30th have created problems for the Rowdies. Still, the fixture congestion will abate soon, and the underlying data foretells regression to the mean. Maybe you experiment with a Pittsburgh-inspired 3-6-1 shape featuring a double pivot and a lone Guenzatti up top, but I think Tampa can weather the storm and bet on improving chemistry. There have been problems, but I'd bet on Tampa's defense returning to elite status in due course.
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