Last week in this space, I hit on the El Paso Locomotive as one of the league's most disappointing defensive units. This week, I wanted to change ends and focus on the underwhelming Birmingham Legion attack. The 2022 Legion are in the USL's top ten for expected goals but languish second-from-bottom in terms of actual goals. Their place relative to everyone else in both of those categories is seen in the graphic, and it emphasizes just how weird the campaign has been in Alabama to date.
Coming into the season, I was bullish on the Legion, albeit with a few notes of caution on the attacking front. Indeed, I predicted that they'd come fourth in the Eastern Conference and said that "you'd be a fool to expect any real regression," albeit with the qualifier that "any reasonable fan would be concerned by the lack of an out-and-out striker." The latter worry, which I tended to brush away, has bit Birmingham. Neco Brett, who tallied eighteen goals last season at forward, exited for New Mexico and already registers in the league's top ten scorers. The Legion replaced him with Edi Horvat, Amadou Diop, and midseason signee Juan Agudelo, who combine for one goal in 2022.
What explains the lifeless goalscoring so far? Let's dig into the video and see what gives.
A word on system to start. This year's Birmingham team has reliably used a 5-2-3 system marked by a narrow front three in attack. Within that band of forwards, you'll see one true striker flanked by two more industrious wingers who often sit in the channels or come deep to aid in defense. Behind them, there's a midfield line of two central midfielders with license to make late runs into the attacking zone. Anderson Asiedu always features here. That pivot is flanked by two marauding wingbacks; Jonathan Dean and Mikey Lopez, inverted onto the left and right respectively, are stalwarts in those roles. Finally, the Legion have three central defenders, the widest of whom are allowed to carry the ball into the opposing half.
To start, let's look at an example from the Hartford match on April 10th. Thomas Vancaeyezeele, a player capable as both a central defender or a box-to-box midfielder, shepherds his side into the final third. Dean sits to his left with the front three to his right, but no one is moving. Vancaeyezeele keeps advancing forward until he runs into the Hartford line and is forced to turn his back to shield the ball; only now does Bruno Lapa make a diagonal run. By then, the Legion have already reset back to the pivot. They're able to work back to Vancaeyezeele in the half space as Dean tucks narrow to buy him room, but the centerback's cross goes wanting as Agudelo is the only player even near the box.
Here's one more sequence from the second half of the same match. It should be noted that Hartford's back three is tailored to address the Legion threat; that said, the stasis innate to Birmingham's system does nothing to challenge the shape. Things start well here, with Asiedu thrusting through the opposing midfield to find Prosper Kasim in the channel. #10 has options at this point. As a mediocre dribbler (5th percentile foul-drawing last year), he's best off whipping in a driven cross or playing into Lopez's overlap. He does neither, freezing the move and forcing his side to reset play. No penetration occurs, and the sequence ends in a wasteful Enzo Martinez shot from distance.
Maybe the Legion are too possession-focused and slow to get out on the break? The numbers and tape wouldn't really say so. While Birmingham is in the top quarter of the USL for possession (492 passes per game), they're exactly average in terms of long pass share (16%) and aren't afraid to go direct when the proper moment arises. In this play from the April 15th match in Detroit, #6 finds Agudelo with such a long pass, freeing his forward in a decent amount of space downfield. Agudelo, who admittedly lost momentum in trying to stay onside, still has his defender on a string with Marlon and Dean bursting forward as dump-off outlets. #99, however, is indecisive, and the brilliant closing angle from Matt Lewis cuts off the pass and forces any dribbling outwards. The move languishes from there.
Later on in that same game, Birmingham entered the attacking half via Phanuel Kavita's initiation through Enzo Martinez. The front three and fullbacks move forward nicely to stretch out Detroit's narrow defense, and Kasim cleverly comes low to interchange with Martinez and find the ball. Still, it's stasis from there yet again. Marlon and Agudelo make half-hearted, straight-line runs into the box, and #10 doesn't have any windows to get in behind or create a chance. He takes a ponderous, low-percentage shot that comes to nothing instead, and the move dies out.
Let's consider one final failed move for the Legion against Detroit. To start, Martinez, Lopez, and a forward create a nice series of passing triangles as they work across the horizontal plane of the pitch. This sort of play can shift an opponent to one side and leave them vulnerable on the other; Birmingham is well on its way to creating such a situation before #19's overly heavy pass to Asiedu. By the time the central midfield man recovers the ball and finds room to cross, Detroit has recovered a numerical edge in the box. Asiedu's cross is too long to boot. The Legion recover possession, but the unincisive series of passes that follows leads to another blasé cross out of the pivot targeting Agudelo and Dean at a four-on-two deficit. No dice.
For all the stasis and disfunction seen above, Birmingham still ranks in the 81st percentile for shot generation and the 65th percentile for shot-on-target creation. Those are solid numbers, but the modest gap betrays one more issue: lacking shot quality. Many of those Legion looks are coming from bad positions against set opponents.
Two further numbers, at once interconnected and mutually reinforcing, help to tell this story. Tom Soehn's side ranks second-to-last in conversion rate at just 5%, and they rely on shot generation from non-attackers more than all but four USL clubs. That latter number, sitting at over 50%, is seen in all of those wasteful Enzo Martinez and Anderson Asiedu attempts from range that Legion fans will be innately familiar with. On one hand, this can be systematic and positive if you're finding Dean and Lopez in behind on inspired overlaps. In practice, it's a sign of stasis.
The low conversion rate could be a blessing or a curse as a harbinger of future results. Last season, the Legion converted at a 10% mark, double their current pace. 2022's low tally is unsustainably bad no matter how you slice it. Still, the high preponderance of long shots naturally limits how good the finishing number can get. To take a step up in attack, Birmingham has to right that balance while addressing the themes seen in the film and the numbers. I'd describe the big issues in a three-pronged manner right now:
Lacking movement in the box
Passing marked by indecision and slow tempo in the attacking third
Settling for low-percentage shots into traffic
Can Birmingham right the ship? I think so. There's too much talent and creation on this roster, and the system just makes so much sense on paper. We've seen the proof of concept already in terms of movement, pace, and incision; the challenge is to keep that up and turn potential into goals.
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