As we near the quarter mark in the USL season, who's over- and under-performing my preseason projections? The full table is here, but I wanted to dive deep into six of the teams that have strayed the farthest from their expectations, both in a positive and negative sense.
Gainers
Colorado Springs (+33 points)
No team in the USL has outperformed their expectations in my preseason formula more than the Switchbacks.
Part of that comes down to the unique nature of Colorado Springs' offseason and idiosyncrasies within my model. Losing important players like Hadji Barry and Michee Ngalina alongside manager Brendan Burke felt like a massive deal. Barry was a former MVP, and Burke was widely considered one of the elite managers in the USL. This team's identity was based upon athletic forwards that could press hard, receive balls played by Cam Lindley from deep, and come up with goals in an instant.
That's where the rebuild comes in. As a baseline, my model prefers players who are projected to play more minutes. After all, better performers are on the field more! Colorado Springs used the fees garnered from their stars to build a deeper, more evenly-distributed squad, one that I couldn't pin down in terms of a preseason minutes distributions. Only 31% of their time used from 2022 was back; what was I supposed to assume?
Still, pieces like Romario Williams and Maalique Foster were still question marks, even beyond the statistical weirdness. Williams had only one goal in 10 games in New Mexico last year and was mediocre in the Middle East before that. Foster was a good super sub in Sacramento but hadn't shouldered a starting burden. In 2023, they've both been excellent.
The decision to use a 3-5-2 by Stephen Hogan has accentuated proven talents like Patrick Seagrist and Deshane Beckford on the wings, and it leans into a rock-solid core of Speedy Williams and Drew Skundrich in the middle of the park. This team has bite when they need it, and they're more athletic and skillful than I ever gave them credit for.
Hogan has been a smooth operator, and the club has benefited for it. Now second in the West, Colorado Springs is for real.
Charleston (+26 points)
When the Battery brought Ben Pirmann to their sideline to spark a return to glory after a disastrous 2022, it always felt like a matter of "when" Charleston would become a contender rather than an "if." It turns out that the answer came more quickly than anyone expected.
When weighing for minutes played, Charleston's average lineup this season has been 24.6 years old. They're tremendously young, a factor that drives the energy of their press but also led my model to doubt the performance of their up-and-coming core.
Everyone and their mother knew that Fidel Barajas had bags of talent. Dante Polvara won the Hermann Trophy and plays for Aberdeen while on loan in South Carolina. Nick Markanich has MLS minutes and was a two-time MAC Player of the Year. Still, pedigree doesn't always lead to immediate success.
Pirmann's ability to balance youthful fire with veteran poise has made the difference, and he's still a master of deployment. Leland Archer and AJ Paterson have been tremendous at center back. Deklan Wynne and Derek Dodson, two of the better attacking full backs in the USL on their day, have excelled at picking their moments to overload the final third while sitting at the halfway line to back up the high press. Paterson is a converted full back, and Dodson was a forward before he met Pirmann in Memphis; these are intentional re-positionings that make a real difference.
Augustine Williams' proven finishing touch gives a sharp edge to the entire team. He's got four goals already on a 92nd percentile conversion rate, and his gravity opens space for teammates. Williams has also impressed at the business end of the press.
There was a degree of uncertainty to the Charleston depth chart in the preseason, but the immediate success of the young attacking core clarified things immediately, allowing USL role players - think Robbie Crawford or Aidan Apodaca - to remain tertiary options. That boosts the Battery in my more recent projections, as does their on-field success that shows no signs of abating.
Loudoun (+15 points)
If you had to sit down and watch 90 minutes of any team in the East, Loudoun would be the pick. They're incredibly fun and play with a real sense of skill and intelligence, one that belies an average age under 24 years old. Much like Charleston, my model underrated Loudoun because of their youth and the muddled outlook of their team in the preseason.
The emergence of players like Panos Armenakas, Kalil ElMedkhar, and Zach Ryan has powered Loudoun's performance to date. The former two are tremendously skillful wingers, and both are willing to cut inside on the dribble to draw opponents out. Ryan is a fluid second striker who can't stop creating goals. He has five finishes of his own on a 96th percentile conversion rate, plus two extra assists, but his ability to interchange with those wingers is crucial.
Further back, my model had real doubts about Dane Jacomen and Hugo Fauroux as a goalkeeping tandem, and I didn't know who to project as the starter. Fauroux has been the more regular starter, and he's only in the 33rd percentile for Goals Saved Above Average, but the fact that he's within a standard deviation of average is tremendously important for a team that traditionally lacks for competent net-minding.
The back line has also been an unexpected strength. Bryce Washington showed flashes in Atlanta, but the rosters around him were dire, and my model assigned part of the blame to the 24-year-old. Yanis Leerman was an unknown coming out of college, and Cole Turner's small sample in El Paso as a No. 6 didn't weigh much into the model in a positive sense. All three have been great, showing discretion on the ball, closing hard to loose balls, and rotating behind their advanced full back partners when needed.
I don't build managerial experience into my model - to do so would be hopeless and presumptive - but Ryan Martin may as well be worth a dozen free points. His ability to string young rosters together into a coherent pressing side has always been impressive, but he now has the talent to match his intellect.
Droppers
Tampa Bay (-27 points)
Perennially atop the East, the Rowdies have been unexpectedly average to start the season. There have been false-start upticks spelled by flummoxing let-downs, though a win at Detroit could be the galvanizing force behind a rebound.
The argument for Tampa Bay was obvious before opening day. Even with Leo Fernandes' injury and the loss of Jake Lacava, the Rowdies ostensibly made up for the absences with their offseason singings. In came JJ Williams (92nd percentile Goals Above Replacement in 2022) and Cal Jennings (79th percentile) to the forward line. Forrest Lasso, a three-time USL Defender of the Year, came home, as did excellent holding midfielder Jordan Doherty. Connor Sparrow (89th percentile Goals Above Replacement in 2022) was a massive addition in goal.
Why has the season been a letdown? I would point to the midfield, both in terms of injuries and squad selection. Missing Lewis Hilton, one of the truly elite No. 8s in league history, is massive. Hilton has the heady sense for defensive positioning to plug major holes, and his vision as a passer is crucial in build-up from the back and in linkage while in the final third.
Even so, this team has the roster to make up for Hilton's absences. By adopting an unbalanced 4-4-2 early on, Neill Collins forced square pegs into round holes, using slower or less defensive players (Yann Ekra, Ariel Martinez, Charlie Dennis) alongside non-progressive passers (Zachary Herivaux, Jordan Doherty) in a self-spiting manner.
In other cases, Collins used Herivaux and Ekra as the wingers in a 5-4-1 or 3-4-3 that sorely lacked for ideas and tempo. There's a proper mix here with Dennis and Doherty as the attacking and defensive cogs, respectively, but Collins has largely refused it.
Still, getting Hilton back and finding those obvious midfield answers - which, to his credit, Collins did against Detroit - is going to pay off. Wing stints from Ryan Spaulding and Conner Antley have been superb in recent weeks, and I'd expect the Rowdies to return to form post haste.
Detroit (-23 points)
When you're finishing at a 3.7% conversion rate and have just three goals in eight matches, you're probably in for a bad time. In the case of Detroit City, that's very true; the club is on pace for a last-place finish in the East.
My model wasn't exactly bullish on Le Rouge, but it had them within one point of the playoffs as the season began. Even accounting for Devon Amoo-Mensah missing the start of the season and considering an unsure forward line, the data pointed to a very competitive season in the Motor City.
Continued injuries in the back line have mattered. Amoo-Mensah is back now, but Stephen Carroll and Matt Lewis have missed time, and Trevor James' forced shifts into a 4-4-2 haven't succeeded in the least.
That shape left Detroit without a modicum of linking play between the lines, and it also neutered their "outside-in" attacking style. James' system works when wing back activity creates space on the interior, and that aspect is invisible in 2023.
That lack of wide danger has held true even in James' preferred formation. Losing Deklan Wynne and Antoine Hoppenot's 18 total assists was big, but the total inability of Adrian Billhardt, Oniel Fisher, or Richie Ballard to make up the gap has been bigger still. Poor finishing from Ben Morris and Yazeed Matthews on the rare good look deserves a shout as well.
Improvement will come. Detroit's finishing is unsustainably poor, and their defense is still strong. Tommy McCabe and Laye Diop have been very good plugging holes in the defensive midfield and back line, and I've liked the process with Skage Simonsen as a linking forward. Nevertheless, improvement needs to come fast, and it still may leave Detroit outside of the postseason.
Orange County (-17 points)
Sitting 11th in the West on points but dead last by points per game, Orange County let go of manager Richard Chaplow this week. The change was needed. Chaplow was brilliant forging an elite defense on the way to the USL title in 2021, but he hasn't been up to snuff since then.
This season, part of the problem is good ol' fashioned bad luck. No team has a lower save percentage than Cody Cropper and Colin Shutler's collective 48%, and Orange County isn't even finishing at a 9% clip going the other way. Still, Chaplow hasn't managed this side in a manner that deserves better outcomes; this team isn't generating dangerous looks and is sloppy in defense.
In acquiring Andrew Fox and Owen Lambe, Orange County added two of the best short passers out there amongst USL defenders. Fox quarterbacked the league's most possessive squad for years in El Paso, and Lambe was trusted to bear the heat of opposing presses as a narrow No. 6-right back hybrid in Los Angeles. Lambe hasn't even played yet in 2023, but this team is somehow second in long pass percentage even with Fox.
The result? Rudderless offense and another year of overreliance on Milan Iloski. The Golden Boot winner was third in the league in terms of percentage of his team's shot attempts, and he's top five again in 2023. Chaplow has tried tinkering, but the inconsistent lineups have only led to a lack of chemistry.
Orange County's young talent is the upside here. Bryce Jamison has been a bright two-way winger, and Korede Osundina hasn't even hit the ground running after making nearly 20 appearances last year. Rookie Ashish Chattha has been sharp in the midfield, and plenty more talent is on the way via Ashton Miles and Joey Buckley.
Alex Villanueva encapsulates the potential. He's quick, technical, and does a bit of everything, but Chaplow was misusing him. In the last six weeks, the 20-year-old's positional deployment has been, uh, inconsistent:
Six weeks, five roles, and no consistency therein. It's indicative of a team that badly needs a plan and already feels out of it in the West.