More than a month into the USL season, tactics and styles have begun to crystallize. Those characteristics are visible in the numbers, but which metrics best capture the key issues and trends that will define 2023?
Here, I break down one key stat that provides insight into the state of each USL Championship team.
Birmingham: 53.7
With eight goals in five games, the Legion offense hasn’t been bad, but Juan Agudelo’s rate of 53.7 touches per shot is a point of concern. Agudelo ranks 125th out of 137 attackers this year in this category, illustrating his conservative approach.
Every attacker can either shoot, pass, or dribble when they get a touch. The former USMNT forward isn't great in either of the latter two skills, so Agudelo's timidity in firing away hamstrings his game and gums up Birmingham's offense. He needs to make quicker, more aggressive decisions for this team to truly compete in the East.
Charleston: 32.7%
Only 32.7% of the Battery’s defensive actions this year have been clearances, a top-five rate in the USL. More than two-thirds of their interventions are tackles or interceptions; Charleston is playing on the front foot and keeping danger away from their net proactively. You only need to clear the ball if you’re under pressure.
Charleston only holds 49% of possession on average, so they're low rate illustrates just how effective the Pirmann-era press and counterpress have been. This team is fiendishly good at denying build-out and transition and keeping the run of play in advantageous areas.
Colorado Springs: 3
Deshane Beckford has three assists this year, tied for the most of any player in the USL. In his first spell with the Switchbacks, Beckford had five goals and seven assists across 28 matches, but he did so working as a proper winger alongside Michee Ngalina and Hadji Barry. This time around, Beckford is playing as a wing back in 3-5-2, and he and Patrick Seagrist are driving the Colorado Springs attack from the flanks. Pair all that with a resurgent Maalique Foster and the do-it-all guile Jairo Henriquez, and this team has become unexpectedly dangerous with the ball.
Detroit: 4.8%
Having rebuilt their attacking line, Le Rouge have sputtered to a 4.8% conversion rate, second-lowest in the league. Blaming the forwards alone would be an incomplete perspective, as Detroit’s struggles partially stem from lackluster creation. Even so, the club is 16th for expected goals by my model, a poor but passable ranking.
Nate Steinwascher leads all goalkeepers in Goals Saved Above Average, Maxi Rodriguez leads all outfield players in my Goals Above Replacement player value statistic, but the Ballard/Rutz/Simonsen/Morris group is letting this team down. Trevor James has experimented with a 4-4-2 to little avail, and I've liked Oniel Fisher's early returns, but this team badly needs a bankable finisher or more credible service.
El Paso: 2.3
After starting the season on a three-match skid, El Paso hasn’t lost, and a big part of that has been their improvement in the back. Much of the glow-up comes down to Eder Borelli starting at left back and improved chemistry in the midfield from Liam Rose and Eric Calvillo – both are showing more effort to track back in concert. The result? The Locomotive have only allowed 2.3 shots on target per game in their unbeaten run. Keep Benny Diaz bored in net, and good things will continue to happen.
Hartford: 153
Tab Ramos has three viable holding midfielders to fit one such slot in his lineup, and he can’t decide which one to favor. Kembo Kibato, Beverly Makangila, and Conor McGlynn have played an average of 153 minutes this season out of a possible 450; none have been on the pitch for even half of the maximum. The result is a lack of chemistry, one that leaves gaps in the midfield against opposing moves and limits this team’s ability to possess with confidence.
Indy: 0.04
Though they’ve only given up one goal per game and look clever in the central midfield, the Eleven are struggling mightily to create. One culprit? Solomon Asante, who’s generating 0.04 expected assists per 90 minutes, which ranks in the 10th percentile amongst attacking midfielders. Asante is playing as the No. 10 at the tip of Mark Lowry’s diamond, but he’s better as a winger that can wreak havoc in transition.
Dylan Mares is the sort of shuttling creator you want in the spot, if you're looking for a model fit. He generated 0.18 xA a game under Lowry in 2021. If you ask me, Indy need to add one more midfielder in the Mares mold to make the system work.
Las Vegas: 9
Isidro Sanchez’s 4-4-2 has set up the Lights as a grindingly difficult team to break down, but they’re lacking for offense in a major way. They’re only getting nine shots per match, third-worst in the USL. Adding Emmanuel Ledesma as a second striker in a slightly shifted 4-4-1-1 can help. He put up 16 goals and 16 assists in his last full season in the league, but that was five years ago. Unless he’s that same player, Las Vegas could be in store for a low-event season.
Loudoun: 58%
To date, Loudoun have owned 58% possession on average. That’s up from 50% last year, and it shows just how effective Ryan Martin has been in retooling the team and instilling his philosophy.
Central defenders like Yanis Leerman, Cole Turner, and Bryce Washington have license to close to midfield in the counterpress. They limit foes from breaking into the Loudoun half and bump up those possession numbers. Further, a sharp attacking core centered around technical pieces like Panos Armenakas and Zach Ryan are the key to keeping control and encouraging offensive flow.
Louisville: 23
Danny Cruz has suited up 23 different players this season, more than any other team out there. That number doesn’t seem exceptional on the face of it, but the league-wide median is currently 18.5. Louisville's player usage is 2.5 standard deviations above average, not a full outlier but darn near it.
Regularly changing out players limits the chemistry, especially in defense, and Cruz has been forced to use four different back lines in five matches thus far. As his team settles down and gets healthy, I expect Louisville to return to their typically dominant form – we’ve seen the seeds of it already with 1-0 wins against Lexington and Detroit.
Memphis: 45.7%
Across the league, the average save percentage is a tick above 68%. Drew Romig and Bill Hamid have combined for a 45.7% save percentage in 2023, last in the USL by a country mile.
Still, to blame the goalkeepers alone would be a mistake. A patchwork defense with multiple players out of position have rendered Memphis endlessly mistake prone and undermanned. 901 FC have allowed easy chances as a result; the save percentage reflects that. Getting Rece Buckmaster and Leston Paul back will help, but there still may be underlying issues in net at AutoZone Park.
Miami: 1.9
Chance generation comes in a variety of ways, but an average of 1.9 crosses per shot, third-highest in the USL, gets at Miami’s creative troubles in 2023. The number reveals two things about the side: they aren’t getting the ball into the middle of the pitch (hence so many crosses) and aren’t shooting at volume (hence so few shots). I’ve liked Florian Valot’s turn as more of a deep-seated No. 8 at times, but Anthony Pulis badly needs him or someone else to do the job higher up as a proper No. 10.
Monterey: 29.7%
With a 29.7% conversion rate, Monterey is almost twice as hot in front of net as any other team. The league average there is 11%, and there’s no way this rate is sustainable, though it may speak to the quality of the looks Frank Yallop’s team is generating at the moment. Sam Gleadle and Alex Dixon have been tremendous finding space in transition, catching defenses out, and beatinggoalkeepers one-on-one.
Can Monterey stay around 30% conversion? No. Still, might Monterey still lead the league after 34 games? I wouldn’t be shocked, providing they stay this sharp on the counter.
New Mexico: 28.8
Weighing minutes played, New Mexico’s average age is 28.8, the oldest in the USL. An injury to young starlet Cristian Nava and the justifiably slow roll-out of prospects like Alex Waggoner make a difference. Even so, this team's age may reflect a stale, slow roster that's past its peak.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with players in their 30s. Pieces under that umbrella like Josh Suggs and Kalen Ryden are genuinely great. However, if you tack up too many flow-footed vets, you might just allow four transition goals to Monterey or bleed on the counter against Oakland. There needs to be more balance; I’d expect to see new faces like Waggoner and Timothie Zali get more run.
Oakland: 2.05
According to my regression-based expected goals model, the Roots are putting up 2.05 expected goals per game, tops in the league. They’re the only team above the two-goal mark! Since taking over midway through 2022, Noah Delgado has done a tremendous job taking a one-note 3-4-3 shape and iterating upon it.
A reliance on wing backs has shifted into a complete arsenal with constantly moving wingers and a punchier central midfield. Squad pieces like Johnny Rodriguez and Lindo Mfeka, hurt or overlooked last season, have emerged in the more fluid setting, and the result has been a terrifying attack. The Roots feel very real, and the numbers are backing it up.
Orange County: 30.4%
Milan Iloski is a bona fide star, so you’d expect him to carry the burden of Orange County’s offense. Still, he owns 30.4% of his team’s shot attempts, the third-highest such share in the USL. Last season, Iloski led the league with a share around 29%. Is this really a problem? I say so.
My early optimism around OCSC centered on their new-look attack, which built with control and looked short to involve more players. Five weeks in, and the club has reverted to a 22% long pass share, second-highest in the division. They're utterly reliant on hoofing it to Iloski, and there has to be evolution here for a successful return to the playoffs.
Phoenix: 19%
The average goalkeeper in the USL goes long 58% of the time. For Phoenix Rising and starter Rocco Rios Novo, that number has been just 19%. This team is wholly committed to playing short and using Rios Novo as a functional outfield player with the ball. Doing so forces opponents to commit more players up field in the press, opening up room further back.
There have been occasional growing pains as a result of the system – see the Krutzen backpass that turned into a sloppy concession in San Diego – but the overall style and philosophy have increasingly paid off. Phoenix has looked impressive against a difficult schedule, and they'll only get better with increasing chemistry in front of their Argentine 'keeper.
Pittsburgh: 50
Out of 181 successful passes this year, only 50 of Kenardo Forbes’ have been forward passes aimed upfield. That ranks in the 34th percentile for all USL midfielders, and it captures how Pittsburgh has struggled to create chances or find balls into the box. Forbes’ deployment has been deeper and more defensive this season than in the past, a necessity given the Riverhounds’ roster churn. Still, with Robbie Mertz as a winger and #11 low, there isn’t enough progression down the middle for Bob Lilley at the moment.
Rio Grande Valley: 0
One of five undefeated teams remaining in the USL Championship - that's "zero" losses - the Toros still feel like a paper tiger. A 2-1 loss to South Georgia Tormenta in the Open Cup, a match where Wilmer Cabrera rolled out seven regular starters, was indicative of the relative malaise.
There have been positive signs. Christiano Francois (74th percentile expected assists) and Jonathan Ricketts (74th percentile Goals Above Replacement) are terrific on the right. Taylor Davila is making the leap in the midfield. Even so, the goose egg in the loss column doesn't eliminate the question of how real RGVFC is given their light schedule. Frustratingly, there isn't a real litmus test game until Cabrera's crew visit San Diego in mid-May.
Sacramento: 8
Jack Gurr has attempted eight shots through five games, a total that rates in the 97th percentile for full backs. Gurr has the second-most shots of any player for the Republic, speaking to the step up he’s taken in terms of his offensive impact. Part of that comes down to the gravity of Russell Cicerone, Sacramento’s shot leader, and the hold-up play of Sebastian Herrera, a new No. 9.
However, Gurr's level of dynamism on the run, however, goes beyond his teammates' contributions. The Englishman has been terrific on the over- and underlap while maintaining a spotless record tracking back in defense. There's a real confluence of successes in Sacramento right now, and #2's output is just one way to capture the improvements this team made in the offseason.
San Antonio: 29.6
In the average match, San Antonio fouls or is fouled 29.6 times, the third most of any team in the league. Pair that high rate of stoppages with a 28% long pass share (2.5 standard deviations above average) and 38% possession, and the SAFC experience is apparent: slow the game down, absorb opposing possession, foul as needed when you're overloaded, and launch over your drawn-out foe when the moment comes.
The results are inarguable. Alen Marcina's side is tied for first in the West, and that tendency to break up the game with fouls and physicality is helping to relieve tired legs within an injury-riddled side.
San Diego: 85%
Koke Vegas’ pass completion rate is 85% in 2023, among the highest of all goalkeepers in the league. San Diego ostensibly runs a 3-4-3 shape, but that back line may as well be a back four in possession. Koke Vegas regularly slides in to the center-right next to the Kyle Adams and Grant Stoneman types, and he's equally adept as a distributor.
Still, the prodigious pass completion rate belies the goalkeeper’s range; he’s superb at picking his moments to go long and find a forward with an inch-perfect outlet pass. Pair the distribution with a top-six Goals Saved Above Average amongst starting goalies, and Koke Vegas’ importance for a hot Loyal team is clear.
Tampa Bay: 1.03
With Lewis Hilton on the pitch, the Rowdies’ margin is +1.03 better by goal difference than the minutes they’ve played without #4. His on-off split captures the ups and downs of Tampa Bay’s season. Neill Collins’ move into a 4-4-2, necessitated by injuries and a unique roster build, often left the center of the pitch remarkably thin without him.
Hilton’s combination of measured passing as an attacker and positional intelligence as a defender can patch over those issues, and his health also allows Collins to adopt a solid 5-2-3 shape. The Englishman's passing lets you generate more looks with less out-and-out attackers. He’s a crucial presence, and the data shows it.
Tulsa: 13
Rodrigo Da Costa has 13 key passes to date, second in the league. Da Costa’s ability to create shots for his teammates is paramount. Within the Tulsa 4-2-3-1, he plays as the No. 10, flitting between deep support of the pivot in build to a more striker-adjacent role in the 4-4-2ish press. His gravity frees up lanes for Marcus Epps and Milo Yosef to make incisive runs from wide.
Still, there’s some caution to be had. I love Tulsa’s style, and Da Costa is undeniable, but this team has only earned six points in six game. Luck notwithstanding, #10's prodigious distribution has only yielded one assist. I expect regression to the mean, and the back line can only get healthier, but you can't say enough about what Da Costa has done already.
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